Predict the results of next PPP NH poll.

[Senator Cris]

PPP is doing a NH poll early this week.
What are your predictions?

[yankeesfan]

Trump:  24%
Rubio:  18%
Cruz:  17%
Christie: 8%
Carson: 8%
Kasich: 6%
Bush: 5%

[Broken System]

Trump 27
Rubio 17
Cruz 12
Kasich 8
Carson 7
Bush 7
Christie 6
Fiorina 5
Paul 3
Santorum 2
Huckabee 1
Pataki 1
Graham 1

[Maxwell]

Some general things -
Trump in 1st
Rubio in a distant second
Christie ahead of Kasich and Bush
Cruz (potentially) ahead of Christie

If we want numbers:

26% Trump
12% Rubio
10% Cruz
9% Christie
6% Carson
6% Kasich
4% Bush
3% Fiorina
3% Paul
The Rest% low energy losers

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Trump, Rubio/Carson, Cruz, everybody else.

Sanders and Clinton very close.

General election Sanders and Clinton both lead by about 5%.

[The Mikado]

Trump 27
Rubio 15
Cruz 13
Carson 11
Christie/Kasich 8
Jeb! 7
Paul 5
Fiorina 4

[Tender Branson]

23% Trump
14% Rubio
13% Cruz
12% Kasich
  9% Carson
  8% Bush
  7% Christie
  4% Fiorina
  4% Paul
  1% Huckabee
  2% Others
  3% Undecided

(MoE: +/- 2%)

46% Clinton
46% Sanders
  4% O'Malley
  4% Undecided

(MoE: +/- 2%)

[Maxwell]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

[PPT Spiral]

Trump - 28%
Christie - 13%
Rubio - 12%
Cruz - 10%
Carson - 8%
Bush - 7%
Kasich - 7%
Fiorina - 4%
Paul - 4%
Graham - 1%
Huckabee - 1%
Gilmore - 0%
Pataki - 0%
Santorum - 0%

[Tender Branson]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

Real Americans were out consuming over the weekend rather than watching television or were tuned into a football game that Kasich can't afford to run ads during, so quite a stupid move. The ad was posted on AAD, and it was very pro-TRUMP as the people of NH like. Why would they switch from something they already like? A surge would be absurd.

[Maxwell]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

Kasich has been blitzing Iowa and New Hampshire for a long time, including during the time when his poll numbers began dipping in NH. I doubt this will cause a Kasich surge.

[Tender Branson]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

Real Americans were out consuming over the weekend rather than watching television or were tuned into a football game that Kasich can't afford to run ads during, so quite a stupid move. The ad was posted on AAD, and it was very pro-TRUMP as the people of NH like. Why would they switch from something they already like? A surge would be absurd.

It's just a theory, but we'll see.

Maybe Kasich's anti-Trump ads hit a nerve with some voters who see him as too xenophobic or racist.

[Asian Nazi]

I think if anything christie will surge at the expense of kasich

[Tender Branson]

I think if anything christie will surge at the expense of kasich

Both Christie and Kasich could surge a bit at the expense of Bush.
Trump could fall a bit at the expense of Cruz and Rubio.

[Eraserhead]

Trump +20% and Clinton +15% in the primaries.

[kireev]

Trump 30%
Rubio 15%
Cruz 13%
Bush 8%
Christie 7%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
Paul 5%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 1%

Clinton 49%
Sanders 42%
O'Malley 5%

[Kingpoleon]

Donald Trump: 20%
Ted Cruz: 14%
John Kasich: 12%
Marco Rubio: 11%
Ben Carson: 7%
Chris Christie: 7%
Carly Fiorina: 4%
Jeb Bush: 3%
Lindsey Graham: 1%
Mike Huckabee: 1%
George Pataki: 0.5%
Rick Santorum: >0%

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

The ads that gave him the initial boost were pro-Kasich ads, not negative ads against other candidates.

Why would anti-Trump ads help Kasich?  If they work, they'll hurt Trump, but why does Kasich get those voters, just because it was his campaign running the ads?  That doesn't make sense.  If Kasich wants to boost his own #s, he should either run pro-Kasich ads or run anti-someone whose voters have Kasich as their 2nd choice ads.

[Kingpoleon]

I don't know why some are having Kasich as surging when it seems his numbers are taking the opposite turn.

Mostly because Kasich has started to air anti-Trump & ISIS TV ads in IA and NH over the thanksgiving weekend and previously when Kasich aired ads there his numbers there went up in polling afterwards.

The ads that gave him the initial boost were pro-Kasich ads, not negative ads against other candidates.

Why would anti-Trump ads help Kasich?  If they work, they'll hurt Trump, but why does Kasich get those voters, just because it was his campaign running the ads?  That doesn't make sense.  If Kasich wants to boost his own #s, he should either run pro-Kasich ads or run anti-someone whose voters have Kasich as their 2nd choice ads.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq2fl0tsgCg

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vgXL-5z8Cnw

Two pro-Kasich ads within the last three weeks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GE:

TRUMP 59
Clinton 32

Clinton 59
Bush 30

Clinton 47
Carson 45

Clinton 46
Rubio 45

Clinton 50
Cruz 43

Fiorina 47
Clinton 46

Clinton 46
Kasich 44

[Tender Branson]

PPP tweets Christie is surging in NH.

[mencken]

Spiral once again displays his clairvoyance with regard to polling results (going by the sum of squared errors). Maxwell and Mikado came nearly as close as well.

[pbrower2a]

Much like the last PPP poll:

Clinton 44 - Kasich 44
Clinton 45 - Christie 44
Clinton 45 - Bush 41
Clinton 46 - Fiorina 42
Clinton 48 - Carson 42
Clinton 48 - Rubio 42
Clinton 47 - Trump 41
Clinton 50 - Cruz 37
Clinton 51 - Huckabee 35

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/hassan-ayotte-still-neck-and-neck-dems-lead-presidential-matches-in-nh.html#more



Although I expect to see Huckabee vanish from consideration.