dean beat bush?
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  dean beat bush?
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TomAtPitt
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« Reply #25 on: December 02, 2003, 06:39:24 PM »

Reasons why Dean would not make a strong candidate in 2004:

- Dean wants to repeal all of Bush's tax cuts, including those on the middle class. This, as Kerry pointed out, amounts to a tax raise on the middle class. This position would not be popular among moderate voters. Also likely to be unpopular with moderates would be his calls for a new large-scale re-regulation of business.

- Dean is a very vocal opponent of the war and opposed it from the beginning. The problem is, a large majority of Americans still say they support the war. Even Democrats in polls say they want a candidate who at first supported the war but was critical about how it was handled- nominating such a candidate would likely be a stronger choice then Dean.

- On social issues, Dean would be put at a disadvantage by his social liberalism as well, due to his signing of the Civil Unions bill in Vermont. While the other candidates share this position, the fact that he actually signed the bill may make him more vulnerable. In addition, he opposes the Defense of Marriage Act which Bill Clinton signed that would prevent all 50 states from recognizing gay marriage should one state decide to approve it. Him calling himself a Metrosexual won't help either.

- Geography: Perhaps the biggest one. If the States were to fall the way they did in 2000, the Democrat would lose by 18 electoral votes. So, the Democrats must hold on to Al Gore's states and capture a few Bush states as well. Dean is from New England, a region where the Democrats already dominate and from where the Democrats would not gain much of an advantage having their candidate be from. He might be helpful for New Hampshire, but Vermont is such a different state it would not even be clear there. In fact, Deanis probably one of the candidates least suited to appeal to any states that went for Bush in 2000.
 
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Nym90
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« Reply #26 on: December 02, 2003, 07:03:02 PM »

2004 won't be the 200th anniversary of the Olympics, that won't be until 2096...
It will be the first Olympics held in Athens, the original Olympic site, since 1906, however.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #27 on: December 02, 2003, 07:15:48 PM »

I'd say Dean's chances are slim but I wouldn't totally count him out.  If the economy does not continue to improve or Iraq gets dramatically worse, I think things could get competitive.

As some of the Dems around here have pointed out, there is some precedent to Dean being a moderate leader.  Prob is he has set himself up and created a base around being a whacko.  I don't see him being able to change that impression now that he's stuck with it.

I still voted "no" but I just don't want to be cocky Smiley
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Michael Z
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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2003, 05:17:02 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2003, 05:17:38 AM by Michael Zeigermann »

Wow we realy aren’t rating Dean’s chances but this is what the Republican pollsters Hans Kaiser and Bob Moore.

Ben, that was a very interesting article, thanks.

Now that I think about it, the way conservatives portray Dean is very similar to how liberals described Reagan in the 1970s: as a "nutcase", a "dangerous" politician, and so forth. The rest, as they say, is history.

I suppose many liberals are praying that Dean can do for them what Reagan did for the conservative movement - ie. make it the dominant part of mainstream political discourse. Whether that hope is realistic or nothing more than wishful thinking remains to be seen.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2003, 08:48:07 AM »

Chances of dean winning presidential election in 04.


chances-32%

Oh I think they are less then that.
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John
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« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2003, 02:42:57 PM »

Chances of dean winning presidential election in 04.


chances-32%
Dean dose not Have a chace against Bush

Oh I think they are less then that.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2003, 03:16:33 PM »

Is That A Smile, Andy? President Bush's Baghdad sojourn seems to have worked perfectly in one regard: his poll numbers jumped across the board in the days following the secret trip, the National Annenberg Election Survey has found.

The poll, conducted before and after the president’s trip, found "substantial immediate" improvement in Mr. Bush’s job approval (up from 56 percent to 61 percent), disapproval (down from 41 percent to 36 percent) and likability (up from 65 percent to 72 percent).

61%!  
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2003, 03:24:51 PM »

Is That A Smile, Andy? President Bush's Baghdad sojourn seems to have worked perfectly in one regard: his poll numbers jumped across the board in the days following the secret trip, the National Annenberg Election Survey has found.

The poll, conducted before and after the president’s trip, found "substantial immediate" improvement in Mr. Bush’s job approval (up from 56 percent to 61 percent), disapproval (down from 41 percent to 36 percent) and likability (up from 65 percent to 72 percent).

61%!  
I'll belive te poll whwn I see it
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Gustaf
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« Reply #33 on: December 22, 2003, 07:39:03 AM »

I think the question is a little misphrased. CAN Dean win? My answer would certainly be yes. WILL he win? Probably not. But there is an outside chance. I agree with most of Ben's points, I think Dean is underrated, but that so much is going for Bush that he will probably get re-elected anyway.
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MAS117
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« Reply #34 on: December 22, 2003, 04:22:17 PM »

I don't think he can. Dean is leading the party into the wrong direction. I'm a Democrat supporting John Kerry, but if Deans the nominee I would vote for Bush.
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