Collaborative future elections thread

[Thunderbird is the word]

Let's try to project the future as far in advance and future elections based on current trends.

2016:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)-New York/Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro (D)-Texas 343

Businessman Donald Trump (R)-New York/Congressman Steve King (R)-Iowa 195

Senate: Dems +7
House:  Dems +13

Despite unprecedented attempts to prevent Donald Trump from gaining the GOP nomination he managed to build up a comfortable lead in delegates with Kasich and Rubio dividing the establishment vote and only Ted Cruz putting up opposition on the right. On the Democratic side Bernie Sanders managed to put up a respectable showing and won New Hampshire. Though Hillary Clinton ended up clinching the nomination rather early, Sanders remained in the race to push his message.

Very few Republicans were willing to run on a ticket with Trump. He offered the VP slot to Sandoval, Rubio, Kasich, Bransted and Cruz, all of whom turned him down before eventually settling on congressman Steve King of Iowa. Much of the GOP establishment ignored Trump and he ran a largely self-financed campaign with the Koch Brothers opting to bankroll Gary Johnson and Wall Street pouring billions into the Hillary Clinton campaign. On the Democratic side, many Sanders supporters flocked to the banner of Jill Stein though the prospect of a Trump presidency combined with Sanders endorsement of Clinton kept many reluctantly in the Democratic camp.

Coming out of the GOP convention the election was relatively close. However several high profile hate crimes and frequent incidents of violence at Trump rallies which he refused to condemn led to his candidacy sinking and many congressional candidates in competitive distracts refused to appear with him. It also provided the Democrats with unprecedented opportunities for attack ads and GOTV efforts. Although many had suspected that Trump would be able to pick off several Midwestern states early in the election the map remained unchanged from 2012 with the addition of Arizona, largely due to Hillary winning over 95% of the Hispanic vote at an unprecedented rate, while Gabrielle Giffords pulled off an upset in the senate race. Shortly after the election, in response to militias posing outside polling places and attempting to prevent people from voting the Justice Department filed several lawsuits for civil rights intimidation.  

[Del Tachi]

United States presidential election, 2020

President Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Vice President Julian Castro (D-TX) - 310
Former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) / Governor Ed Gillespie (R-VA) - 228

[Thunderbird is the word]

(Not sure what the exact electoral breakdown will be after 2020 though my estimate is that this will end in a GOP victory)

Former Illinois Governor Bruce Ranaur (R)-Illinois Senator Mike Lee (R)-Utah
Vice-President Julian Castro (D)-Texas New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich (D)-New Mexico

After sixteen years of Democratic control of the White House there was widespread fatigue which was compounded by a recession in 2023 due to the collapse of the oil industry. A competitive primary emerged in both parties. On the Democratic side Vice-President Castro faced opposition on the grassroots left from former New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio and New Mexico senator Martin Heinrich though much of the party establishment coalessed around Castro.

Meanwhile on the GOP side a spirited battle emerged with a wide field of candidates. Many within the establishment deliberately rigged the primary calender to favor states like New York, Nevada and Florida with southern and midwestern primaries moved later in the year so as to favor a more moderate candidate after four consecutive election losses. Illinois governor Bruce Rauner quickly became the establishment favorite, running mainly on a platform of balancing the budget. He faced spirited opposition from House Minority leader (and former speaker) Paul Ryan who had broken his previous vow to never run for president after the GOP lost control of the house in 2020. Despite vocal opposition from the right, including a walkout of some conservative delegates at the GOP convention in Denver Ranaur managed to walk away with the nomination and picked Mike Lee of Utah as his running mate.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Businessman Donald Trump/Senator Ted Cruz 321 Electoral Votes 49.7%
Secretary Hillary Clinton/Secretary Julian Castro 217 Electoral Votes 48.5%

After a somewhat competitive primary, Donald Trump wins and picks Ted Cruz as his veep. The democratic side is fairly easy, with Bernie Sanders only winning a few states, Clinton picks Castro as her Vice President. After economic troubles and with ISIS on the rise, Donald Trump manages a narrow victory on election day. After four more years, unemployment is down, taxes lowered, Obamacare repealed and ISIS wiped off the face of the planet, Trump faces a moderate primary challenge from Former Senator Marco Rubio, who is easily wiped out early and only gets about eighteen percent of the primary vote, the rest going to Trump. The democrats get Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and newly elected senator Alan Grayson to fight it out, Castro wins and chooses Congressman Anthony Brown of Maryland as his running mate.

President Donald Trump/Vice President Ted Cruz 377 Electoral Votes 56.1%
Secretary Julian Castro/Congressman Anthony Brown 166 Electoral Votes 42.3%