Could Gore have won New Hampshire in 2000?

[Sir Mohamed]

In the 2000 election controversy, there's much talk about FL. But Gore could have won the general election with 270-267 by winning NH's four ec-votes (and still losing the sunshine state).

[MT Treasurer]

Of course he could have, for example if he had he picked Shaheen as his running mate. NH was not solidly blue 15 years ago, it was a pure Tossup. Bush was a terrible fit for the state (as opposed to Romney), so it's still kind of surprising that it went Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bob Graham would have been broader appeal to NH and FL.

[RINO Tom]

Of course he could have, for example if he had he picked Shaheen as his running mate. NH was not solidly blue 15 years ago, it was a pure Tossup. Bush was a terrible fit for the state (as opposed to Romney), so it's still kind of surprising that it went Republican.

Putting aside your comical axe to grind with NH, what do you consider to be "solid"?  If all it means is that it's almost certainly going one way in a close election, then I agree, NH is solid D.  But so is WI, PA and MN, then.  I personally use how close it is and how likely it is to send Republicans to Washington, and using that, it does not fit my criteria as "solid."

Obama won NH by 5.58%.  He won PA by 7.39% and WI by 6.94%.  And you never call those states solid D.  They were objectively more Democratic than NH was in 2012.  For God's sake, IOWA voted to the left of NH.  Now you can either agree that you're using the first definition I provided and seem like less of a hack, or you can literally ignore facts I just provided in the name of your bizarre crusade and expose yourself for having an alarmingly clear bias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shaheen didnt want to be Veep, Bob Graham, was the perfect Veep for Gore, and his homestate status would have very influencial in the recount. Gore would have asked for a Florida statewide recount. His moderate roots can have played very well with New Hamsphire women.

[JonathanSwift]

Of course he could have, for example if he had he picked Shaheen as his running mate. NH was not solidly blue 15 years ago, it was a pure Tossup. Bush was a terrible fit for the state (as opposed to Romney), so it's still kind of surprising that it went Republican.

Putting aside your comical axe to grind with NH, what do you consider to be "solid"?  If all it means is that it's almost certainly going one way in a close election, then I agree, NH is solid D.  But so is WI, PA and MN, then.  I personally use how close it is and how likely it is to send Republicans to Washington, and using that, it does not fit my criteria as "solid."

Obama won NH by 5.58%.  He won PA by 7.39% and WI by 6.94%.  And you never call those states solid D.  They were objectively more Democratic than NH was in 2012.  For God's sake, IOWA voted to the left of NH.  Now you can either agree that you're using the first definition I provided and seem like less of a hack, or you can literally ignore facts I just provided in the name of your bizarre crusade and expose yourself for having an alarmingly clear bias.

Obama won Pennsylvania by 5.38%.

[Thunderbird is the word]

New Hampshire tends to be friendly to third party candidates so unless Gore managed to peel off more of the Nader vote I don't think he could have, though it's also possible that some of the Nader vote may have come from pure anti-establishment voters as opposed to specifically left-wing ones.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yes, but I doubt he would have.  IIRC, he made only one campaign stop there after the primary.  It clearly wasn't a high priority state for him.

[Young Conservative]

Of course he could have, for example if he had he picked Shaheen as his running mate. NH was not solidly blue 15 years ago, it was a pure Tossup. Bush was a terrible fit for the state (as opposed to Romney), so it's still kind of surprising that it went Republican.

It still isn't solidly blue

[SingingAnalyst]

Yes, and FL too, if these states had had IRV. I noticed a big push for IRV after the 2000 election, no coincidence IMHO.

[buritobr]

Clinton had a 10 point margin against Dole in New Hampshire in 1996. If the difference to the national margin was kept, Gore would have won this state.

I don't know why, George W. Bush performed well in northern New England in 2000. He had 40.70% in Vermont, 48.07% in New Hampshire and 43.97% in Maine. McCain won the primaries in Vermont and New Hampshire. So, he could have done even better there.

Bush performed worse in northern New England in 2004 than he did in 2000. In the rest of the Northeast, he did better in 2004.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Of course he could have, for example if he had he picked Shaheen as his running mate. NH was not solidly blue 15 years ago, it was a pure Tossup. Bush was a terrible fit for the state (as opposed to Romney), so it's still kind of surprising that it went Republican.

It still isn't solidly blue

Then why does it never vote Republican?

1980:
Reagan: 57.74%
Carter: 28.35%
R margin: 29 points

1984:
Reagan: 68.66%
Mondale: 30.95%
R margin: 38 points

1988:
Bush: 62.49%
Dukakis: 36.33%
R margin: 26 points

1992:
Clinton: 38.86%
Bush: 37.64%
D margin: 1 point

1996:
Clinton: 49.23%
Dole: 40.72%
D margin: 9 points

2000:
Bush: 48.07%
Gore: 46.80%
R margin: 1 point

2004:
Kerry: 50.24%
Bush: 48.87%
D margin: 1 point

2008:
Obama: 54.13%
McCain: 44.52%
D margin: 10 points

2012:
Obama: 51.98%
Romney: 46.40%
D margin: 5 points

4 of the last 10 elections, New Hampshire has voted Republican. Or, as you say, "never."

[Bigby]

Clinton had a 10 point margin against Dole in New Hampshire in 1996. If the difference to the national margin was kept, Gore would have won this state.

I don't know why, George W. Bush performed well in northern New England in 2000. He had 40.70% in Vermont, 48.07% in New Hampshire and 43.97% in Maine. McCain won the primaries in Vermont and New Hampshire. So, he could have done even better there.

Bush performed worse in northern New England in 2004 than he did in 2000. In the rest of the Northeast, he did better in 2004.

My only guess is remnants of his New England past?

[Californiadreaming]

Shaheen didnt want to be Veep, Bob Graham, was the perfect Veep for Gore, and his homestate status would have very influencial in the recount. Gore would have asked for a Florida statewide recount. His moderate roots can have played very well with New Hamsphire women.

Wasn't Joe Lieberman also a moderate, though?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Of course.  Nader pulled around 4%, right?  I don't see why pulling a few more votes out of NH would necessitate losing votes in IA, OR, and NM where it was also tight.

[Cubby]

Northern New England didn't like Gore's position on guns, and were wary of him being very pro-environment. There's still a timber industry in Maine (at least there was then), and there's lots of sportsmen up there who like to ski, shoot, hunt, fish etc. Bush appealed to him more then.

In 2004, Northern New England swung to Kerry b/c of the Southern evangelical tone of his campaign, and possibly the anti-gay marriage nonsense. Southern New England swung to Bush b/c Gore over-performed there in 2000, in many New England towns Gore did better than Clinton in '96. Also possibly a post-9/11 effect in CT.