Puerto Rico election 2016

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Perhaps the most interesting gubernatorial election in 2016 won't be in a state but America's very own Greece Puerto Rico. I thought a thread seems fair to cover the dramas of the election between belaguered incumbent PDP Gov Garcia Padilla and his opponents; the struggles the territory is having with congress (the current situation is very much unprecedented) and continued shenanigans around statehood (the right are more support I've of staehood than the left, with several GOP presidential candidates explicitly supporting statehood).

[Asian Nazi]

Viva la independencia

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Just in the last day PR almost miraculously avoided a default by paying a 345M payment. Padilla - who has often been accused of nepotism (one of his brother's cronies has just been done in a corruption sting) - is looking pretty queasy. His austerity tactics have been unavoidable but have caused revenue to further collapse and a spike in crime on the island.

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As for why PR is in such a minefield on the legal side, well the answer is a little embarrassing on congress's part:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-12-03/bankruptcy-was-option-for-puerto-rico-before-congress-goof

[Sol]

Does anybody know any good sources on Puerto Rican political geography? It's really remarkable how little attention it gets in US media (at least anglophone media of course).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Fortuno considering running again?

[RI]

Since the establishment of the New Progressive Party in 1967, Puerto Rico generally votes for the party opposite of who wins the Presidency nationally, the only exceptions being 1968, 1984, and 2012. It's almost always close, and incumbent parties tend to lose frequently.

[Crumpets]

I'm curious - I've heard that the PPD is center-left and generally affiliated with the Democrats, but is also in favor of remaining a territory, while the PNP is center-right and generally affiliated with the Republicans, but is also in favor of statehood. What is the origin of the statehood/territory divide between the parties as being generally opposite that of their national counterparts?

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I'm curious - I've heard that the PPD is center-left and generally affiliated with the Democrats, but is also in favor of remaining a territory, while the PNP is center-right and generally affiliated with the Republicans, but is also in favor of statehood. What is the origin of the statehood/territory divide between the parties as being generally opposite that of their national counterparts?

A good contrast is with Taiwan - though ostensibly the parties have "idealogies" they are relatively unimportant compared to the more issue of the political status. The PNP is a broad church - previous PNP Gov Fortuna was essentially a Jindal/Brownback figure, but current resident commissiner and leading 2016 candidate Pedro Pierluisi is allied with the Democrats in Congress. Both parties are essentially patronage machines rather than idealogical creatures - the current PDP government has led a centrist and austere government, to the extent it has alienated a lot of these machines. (Fortuna knew that even if you kick out supports for the poor, uky need to hand sweeties to the powerful machine people).

Where the left/right dichotomy comes from appears (and this is partially conjecture) to stem from the fact that PNP is an agent of 'change' and 'reform', and believes by following Neoliberal Platform X (i e. Paying back the islands many creditors) they will be ascended into the US with joy. The powerprokers of the PDP are quite happy to get rich off the current system, thank you very much.

(Also there is the independence movement, which while having its own party is more predisposed to the status quo than becoming subsumed into the States As an independence movement they use leftist and anti colonial language as you might expect. PDP founder Luis Marin, a populist strongman, brutally smashed PR nationalists of both right and left stripes during his 16 years in power. Not much remains of the old PR nationalism, and if it were to come back it would be in the form of the quasi-indepence of the Marshall Islands.

Is Fortuno considering running again?

Lol no

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Sol make of this what you want:
http://electionspuertorico.org/2012/index_en.html

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Of the two declared PNP people both are Democrats: the aforementioned Pierluisi and Ricky Rossello, activist son of former governor Pedro Rossello, who carried out a very Clinton-era 90's sort of rule - characterised by a popular war on crime/drugs (the island is used as a pathway for smugglers) privatisations, infrastructure building and the United States first universal healthcare reform. Rossello Jr was a Clinton delegate in 2008. It has been mused that Republican-aligned Thomas Schatz will throw his hat in the ring as well, who would be a likely Fortuna successor, but Puerto Ricans aren't going to take too kindly go a arch austerity person after Fortuna and Padilla.

If Padilla retires (as he might) the recently retired SoS and former Olympic athlete David Brenier is likely to join in with the PDP. The PDP is split between two factions - the ultra status quo people represented by Padilla and Brenier, and those that wish to renegotiate a more sovereign relationship with the US, one of the more prominent members being San Juan Mayor (and Padilla enemy) Carmen Cruz.

A young attorney, Alexandra Lugara, is also running as an independent. She praises the Iceland solution for debt renegotiatition and supports a socially liberal agenda (including marijuana legalisation) in a very conservative commonwealth.

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Padilla will not run for reelection. However this doesn't mean he is a lame duck - the territory has some crucial dates coming up for repayment of debts. Meanwhile Republicans (Murkowski, Hutch and Grassley) have introduced a bill that effectively would essentially give the feds control over the state's finances, which would be a humiliation for the PDP especially. Olympic athlete David Benier likely to be the standard bearer for the dominanr faction in the PDP (the status quo, or "ostrich in sand" faction)

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apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

[Kingpoleon]

Emilio Colon is the only hope of Republican-aligned PNP members. The other two PNP candidates would crush Schatz.

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This Monday, PR will default on 37 million dollars worth of loans. residents are leaving in droves, further complicating matters.

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Rossello Jr won on the back of opposition within the party to Pierluisi's brokerage of the 'bailout deal'. He is a hardcore statehood pusher and wants to emulate the "Tennessee Plan" for statehood.

[Simfan34]

apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

Independence is consistently an option more popular off of the island than it is on it.

[Dr. Arch]

apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

Independence is consistently an option more popular off of the island than it is on it.

Pretty much this. My parents had been pro-status quo their entire lives, but are now pro-statehood even though they can't stomach the PNP. They would vote for statehood in a referendum.

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apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

Independence is consistently an option more popular off of the island than it is on it.

Pretty much this. My parents had been pro-status quo their entire lives, but are now pro-statehood even though they can't stomach the PNP. They would vote for statehood in a referendum.

Oh cool, you're Puerto Rican? Have I described things more or less accurately in this thread? What's your opinion of Rossello?

[Dr. Arch]

apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

Independence is consistently an option more popular off of the island than it is on it.

Pretty much this. My parents had been pro-status quo their entire lives, but are now pro-statehood even though they can't stomach the PNP. They would vote for statehood in a referendum.

Oh cool, you're Puerto Rican? Have I described things more or less accurately in this thread? What's your opinion of Rossello?

Yes sir, born and raised. Aside from name typos, you have an amazingly good grasp of the political situation in the island. As you mentioned, the main parties break on status lines more than ideological lines. However, both are corporate welfare types, and it's important to underscore that the PPD is more liberal (less conservative, center-right) than the PNP (evangelical conservative, right/far-right).

Most of the population is highly religious and there are a lot of Ted Cruz-type thinkers in the voting population. The less conservative factions tend to vote PPD, but political voting patterns are highly cemented on family tradition, and there's a great tendency for subsequent generations to vote the same way as their parents regardless of their political ideologies. Some voters break on social freedoms, others break on religious grounds, and others break on the political status (status quo [PPD] vs. statehood [PNP]). From what I've seen and lived through, voters tend to pick one of these issues and ignore the preferred party's stances on the rest and then vote straight down ballot.

The younger generations are far more liberal, yet equally cynical about the political process and highly disengaged. Almost all of the successful politicians run populist campaigns and it's a huge popularity contest. The island's voting patterns tend to swing from one party to the next from cycle to cycle because nobody is almost ever satisfied. Most members from both main parties, however, are Democrats. PR is one of the few places where blue-dog Democrats are still wildly popular at all levels.

Well, I was very young when Roselló Sr. was in power. I do know he gave a lot of handouts and raised the debt extravagantly. The years he presided were pretty good economically speaking, mainly because of how well off the US economy was and the amount of loans he took out to cover for the deficits. I have mixed feelings about Sr., but we had way worse in Fortuño, who was the first Republican to be elected governor in a long time, and he was a complete disaster.

Roselló Jr. has no place running for governor and is more running on his father's name recognition more than anything. He has almost no knowledge of politics and is often caught with the scared deer eyes every time he is asked policy-related questions. His rhetoric is also a mess and sounds worse than Trump at times because he really makes no sense. He is really out of his league, and is nothing like his father. Pierluisi should have won the nomination, but Jr. usurped it through last name recognition.

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seeing as someone made a new PR thread, thought I'd bump this.

From what I've seen Rossello is winning easily.

[Dr. Arch]

seeing as someone made a new PR thread, thought I'd bump this.

From what I've seen Rossello is winning easily.

I really hope not. The guy has no experience and doesn't know what he's saying most of the time. There could be an independent candidate wave this year. Most people are fed up with the austerity status quo there, but I'm not sure whether it's enough for it to overcome the traditional religious-like voting patterns.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why didn't Fortuno run again?  He lost very narrowly in 2012, and his successor has been a disaster.  He would have easily won and brought smart conservatism to an island that desperately needs it.

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Why didn't Fortuno run again?  He lost very narrowly in 2012, and his successor has been a disaster.  He would have easily won and brought smart conservatism to an island that desperately needs it.

He was a loathed, corrupt disaster who is universally despised for his part in the predicament the commonwealth finda itself in. Like all contemporary PR politicians but with a harsh right edge.

[Kingpoleon]

Speaking of Puerto Rico, what are the chances of one of their Justices making it to SCOTUS? Say, Anabelle Rodriguez, or Maite Oronoz Rodriguez.