What place is Christie *actually* in right now?

[Lyin' Steve]

Cause on the RCP average he's still in like tenth place.  But we all know that's not true.  What place is Christie ACTUALLY in right now?

Here is my order:
Trump
Cruz
Rubio
Christie
Bush
Carson
nobody

[Mr. Morden]

In what?  National polling?  Probability to win the nomination?

[Why]

Christie position is struggling to remain relevant to the nomination race, something that he might just be managing to do.

Christie getting a bit of a boost in the polls would not be much of a surprise as he does have something about him but there is no evidence from the polling that he can win the nomination. But perhaps Nate Silver is right, the polls mean next to nothing and anything can happen, except, of course, Trump winning the nomination.

[Beezer]

Am I missing something here? Even the most recent polls have him at 2-4%, indicating virtually no movement. Moreover, should he become a more serious contender, other candidates will begin to dig up dirt (ok, admittedly the dirt is already on the surface) on him. I mean just look at how soft he is on illegals: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2014/01/07/nj-gov-christie-holds-ceremonial-signing-in-state-tuition-bill-for-undocumented/. If this brought down Perry, it'll do the same to a resurgent Christie.

[/]

The grocery store.

[Lord of the Dome]

The grocery store MacDonalds.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Christie position is struggling to remain relevant to the nomination race, something that he might just be managing to do.

Christie getting a bit of a boost in the polls would not be much of a surprise as he does have something about him but there is no evidence from the polling that he can win the nomination. But perhaps Nate Silver is right, the polls mean next to nothing and anything can happen, except, of course, Trump winning the nomination.

This.

Christie might actually be in 6th place in that I believe that Rand Paul is actually doing better than polls indicate.  Not way better, but the Ron Paul faction gives him a bigger base than polls indicate.  Rand's problem is that he can't really grow beyond that base, which is in single digits.

[7,052,770]

If this Rubio affair thing turns out to be true, Christie could be in position to be the Establishment's Last Hope.

[Kingpoleon]

If this Rubio affair thing turns out to be true, Christie could be in position to be the Establishment's Last Hope but has to compete with Kasich for it first.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If this Rubio affair thing turns out to be true, Christie could be in position to be the Establishment's Last Hope.

Regardless of whether it is or isn't, I voted 2nd, maybe 3rd. I see the case for Cruz 2nd, but an actually insurgent establishment candidate might actually have potential to stave off Cruz.

Rubio 4
Carson 5
Paul 6

[Asian Nazi]

If this Rubio affair thing turns out to be true, Christie could be in position to be the Establishment's Last Hope.

Yeah, this, though even without the affair thing Christie could still win establishment backing if he can beat Trump in NH.

That's a big if though.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'm not convinced the Rubio affair thing has to be true to do damage if there's enough smoke it'll scare the people who matter.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm not convinced the Rubio affair thing has to be true to do damage if there's enough smoke it'll scare the people who matter.

...which is why Bush Campaign insinuated to donors it was the reason Rubio failed Romney's vetting.

Except Christie reportedly failed too.

[7,052,770]

I'm not convinced the Rubio affair thing has to be true to do damage if there's enough smoke it'll scare the people who matter.

...which is why Bush Campaign insinuated to donors it was the reason Rubio failed Romney's vetting.

Except Christie reportedly failed too.

Yeah according to Double Down one of the main reasons Christie failed was a potential affair.

[ScottieF]

It doesn't really matter, but...

Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Bush
Carson
Kasich
Christie

With the first three being the only ones with a genuinely good shot at the nomination.

[dudeabides]

Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Bush
Kasich
Carson
Paul
Christie

[Lief 🗽]

here are my odds right now:

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Rubio: 15%
Christie: 10%

It's really starting to look like Christie might have a better shot of emerging as the establishment choice than Rubio does.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh man Trump is going to have a field day roasting Christie if he becomes the new establishment pick!

[°Leprechaun]

here are my odds right now:

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Rubio: 15%
Christie: 10%

It's really starting to look like Christie might have a better shot of emerging as the establishment choice than Rubio does.

I wouldn't dismiss Carson too quickly, but if after being demoted to an undercard candidate he manages to surpass Kasich, Bush and Rubio, he would be the comeback kid.

[°Leprechaun]

According to national polls:
Trump
Carson
Cruz
Rubio
Bush
Christie (6th)

Therefore, none of the options in this poll are ones that I could currently chose.

[°Leprechaun]

The grocery store.

OK, but let's hope that he's on a low carb diet. Not very nice, I know, but what the heck.

[Lief 🗽]

here are my odds right now:

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Rubio: 15%
Christie: 10%

It's really starting to look like Christie might have a better shot of emerging as the establishment choice than Rubio does.

I wouldn't dismiss Carson too quickly, but if after being demoted to an undercard candidate he manages to surpass Kasich, Bush and Rubio, he would be the comeback kid.

Even if October, when Carson was doing better, I still thought his chances were fairly low. Even if he wins Iowa, he's not going to win the nomination. Republicans like him and he has a devoted group of supporters, but it's clear that most don't see him a president.

[Averroës Nix]

Going by subjective odds, I'd place Christie in a solid third place behind Rubio and Cruz:

~55% - Rubio
~20% - Cruz
~10% - Christie
  ~5% - Bush
  ~5% - Trump
  <5% - Others

...with "others" mostly comprising potential nominees who are not candidates.

I can't imagine any set of circumstances under which either Carson, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee, Graham, Santorum, Gilmore, or Pataki wins the nomination - none of them merits better than 1000:1 odds, at best.

Maybe Bush belong in this category as well. HOWEVER, the defining characteristic of politicians from the Bush family is a political cliché: They really are willing to say and do anything to get elected.

So, if Jeb decides to go full-Atwater on each of the other non-Trump candidates - which, increasingly, seems to be the case - he might succeed in destroying every one of them. And we don't get a "fair fight" between him and Trump at that point - what we probably get is Jeb winning through some combination of party shenanigans, rules-lawyering, and raw spending. Which, I imagine, is the catalyst for Trump running as an independent candidate.

[Lief 🗽]

You really think Rubio has a better than 1 in 2 chance of being the nominee? The guy hasn't led in a single poll yet. He's not even close! Nor is he really showing any momentum at all, unlike arguably Cruz and Christie.

[The Mikado]