CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 36% Cruz 16% Carson 14% Rubio 12% Christie 4%

[The Other Castro]

It really is too bad Silver is such a rat coward; I'd love to see his fat, sweaty face apologize for being so wrong, so often when Trump gives his RNC acceptance speech. Unfortunately we all know that slimy fraud will find a way to weasel out of it.

Have you seen the ending of Veep Season 4? It has kind of a Nate Silver parody character being proven wrong on all his bs.

[Lief 🗽]

Lol the Trump-truthers are really scrambling now!! They're so desperate, it's embarrassing and sad.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Well welcome to the death of the Republican Party then

[defe07]

Well welcome to the death of the Republican Party then

Yup! I'm hoping the Libertarians can nominate Ventura/Johnson as the Presidential ticket. Could you guys imagine a 3-way debate between Trump, Ventura and Hillary?

[mencken]

U.S. News has called this out as a push poll:
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/12/04/the-cnn-poll-with-trump-at-36-percent-has-a-serious-flaw

Is CNN full of idiots, or did they deliberately commission a leading poll to make a good headline? (Most likely both)

[RI]

Poll un-skewing is the pastime of losers, literally.

[mencken]

Poll un-skewing is the pastime of losers, literally.

Calling out shoddy methodology is not poll unskewing. Asking five questions likely to influence someone's decision before the horserace question is a push poll, regardless of whether you find the outcome amusing.

[RI]

I'm really not sure that the assumption that asking about immigration -> thinking solely about Trump to the detriment of other Republicans is a valid one.

[mencken]

I'm really not sure that the assumption that asking about immigration -> thinking solely about Trump to the detriment of other Republicans is a valid one.

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[EliteLX]

Sweet mother of God above.

:-(

[RI]

I'm really not sure that the assumption that asking about immigration -> thinking solely about Trump to the detriment of other Republicans is a valid one.

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I'm aware of how push polls work. What I'm saying is that getting voters to think about immigration doesn't inherently imply they'll think about Trump more than other Republicans.

[IceSpear]

Looks like this really is a four way race now. But if Carson's downward trend continues, it could even be a three way.

[Cruzcrew]

Save us

[mencken]

I'm really not sure that the assumption that asking about immigration -> thinking solely about Trump to the detriment of other Republicans is a valid one.

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I'm aware of how push polls work. What I'm saying is that getting voters to think about immigration doesn't inherently imply they'll think about Trump more than other Republicans.

When one candidate is defined in the public consciousness by one signature issue, asking five questions about that issue beforehand is going to affect responses. If you want an honest gauge of support, ask those questions afterward.

[Why]

There may be a real effect in the two polls which have asked the immigration questions. However this quote from the article implies a large error in the polls which I don't think has much basis in fact.

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There is absolutely no way the September 4-8 poll was anything like 8.5% too high. Trumps support has been up and down and at the time of this poll he was polling much higher than 24% in other live polls. The September 4-8 poll had live polls with him at 30% and 33% released very close to it. So I would limit the effect in that poll to at most a couple of percent only

[retromike22]

Looks like this really is a four way race now. But if Carson's downward trend continues, it could even be a three way.

Right now I'm thinking Trump, Cruz, Rubio and possibly Christie.

[Higgs]

Well welcome to the death of the Republican Party then

Yup! I'm hoping the Libertarians can nominate Ventura/Johnson as the Presidential ticket. Could you guys imagine a 3-way debate between Trump, Ventura and Hillary?

Lol Johnson or Ventura will never be on a debate stage with Trump and Hillary

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The fact that Christie is now ahead of Bush makes me smile inside.

[Ljube]

I will take it with a grain of salt until corroborated by other pollsters.

Biggest losers were Carson (-8), Bush (-5), Paul (-4), and Huckabee (-3). Biggest gainers were Cruz (+12), Trump (+9), and Rubio (+4). Is the idea here that Trump picked up Bush and Huckabee's name recognition votes while Cruz picked up Carson and Paul's combined evangelitarian base?

No. Trump and Cruz picked up Carson's and Paul's evangelicals and moderates (Trump picked up all of the moderates) and Rubio picked up Bush's votes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like this really is a four way race now. But if Carson's downward trend continues, it could even be a three way.

Right now I'm thinking Trump, Cruz, Rubio and possibly Christie.

Yeah, it's clear that Carson's downward trend will continue.  I'm not certain I buy the Christie surge and I certainly don't buy its staying power.It's too easy to remind voters of his negatives

[/]

Great job losing to Christie, Bush.