Can Republicans win Michigan?
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Author Topic: Can Republicans win Michigan?  (Read 4186 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: December 06, 2015, 11:55:07 AM »
Which Republicans can win the general election in Michigan?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2015, 12:06:12 PM »
No.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2015, 12:25:40 PM »
Carson seems like the only one that comes close, but Trump wont.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2015, 12:40:43 PM »
Republicans have a similar chance of winning Michigan as Democrats do North Carolina.

It can happen in a good election for the party, although at that point it's not going to change the outcome.
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2015, 12:41:44 PM »
If 2016 turned into a reverse 2008, Michigan would probably go GOP. The Republican would have to win the popular vote by at least 4-5 points nationally to have a chance, though.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2015, 12:55:58 PM »
Please...
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2015, 12:59:16 PM »
Not in this cycle, and probably not the next one either.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2015, 02:00:16 PM »
Places like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania would flip much sooner than Michigan.     
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ScottieF
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2015, 04:01:45 PM »
No (normal, sane). Indiana is a good analogue for Republicans.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2015, 04:54:18 PM »
Quote from: Mister Mets on December 06, 2015, 12:40:43 PM
Republicans have a similar chance of winning Michigan as Democrats do North Carolina.

It can happen in a good election for the party, although at that point it's not going to change the outcome.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2015, 10:01:14 PM »
Quote from: Wulfric on December 06, 2015, 04:54:18 PM
Quote from: Mister Mets on December 06, 2015, 12:40:43 PM
Republicans have a similar chance of winning Michigan as Democrats do North Carolina.

It can happen in a good election for the party, although at that point it's not going to change the outcome.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2015, 10:05:24 PM »
CAN they?  Of course ... only a hack would say otherwise.  But they'd have won the election long before that.
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Green Line
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2015, 10:19:38 PM »
Quote from: RINO Tom on December 06, 2015, 10:05:24 PM
CAN they?  Of course ... only a hack would say otherwise.  But they'd have won the election long before that.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: December 07, 2015, 12:15:43 PM »
Michigan for Republicans is like Arizona for Democrats. Everyone insists that THIS will be the year that it finally flips because trends, demographics, etc. Republicans will only win Michigan if they win in a landslide. Otherwise, it's staying Democratic.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: December 07, 2015, 03:01:32 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on December 07, 2015, 12:15:43 PM
Michigan for Republicans is like Arizona for Democrats. Everyone insists that THIS will be the year that it finally flips because trends, demographics, etc. Republicans will only win Michigan if they win in a landslide. Otherwise, it's staying Democratic.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2015, 03:07:35 PM »
Yeah, Arizona is a better comparison to Michigan than Michigan.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2015, 10:35:45 PM »
Absolutely.  Whether they will or not is another issue.  See my comment in the Pennsylvania thread.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2015, 11:27:31 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on December 07, 2015, 12:15:43 PM
Michigan for Republicans is like Arizona for Democrats. Everyone insists that THIS will be the year that it finally flips because trends, demographics, etc. Republicans will only win Michigan if they win in a landslide. Otherwise, it's staying Democratic.
I'm not sure.

Arizona might have been in play in 2008, if McCain hadn't been the nominee.

On the other hand, Romney won it by nine points in 2012, a good year for Democrats. Hillary is very unlikely to improve on Obama's numbers ot that extent.

Republicans have more room to improve. It's within the realm of possibility that they'll flip a state Obama won by 9 1/2 points. Obama managed bigger swings in Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado from where they were in 2004 to where they were in 2008.
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