Is the Republican party doomed on presidential level?

[5280]

Will the GOP ever win the presidential election again? Is having the Democrat party winning multiple presidential elections bad for the country?

[ScottieF]

For the foreseeable future, yes. If current political trends continue, I can see a scenario in which Democrats become a presidential party that routinely lose midterm elections and Republicans become a midterm party that routinely lose presidential elections.

[TarHeelDem]

At this point I think so. I don't see Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio beating Clinton in 2016, and she'll probably have a strong enough first term to win again in 2020. Then the GOP would have to get its act together and nominate someone who could beat her VP, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Letting Bush into the White House was a terrible mistake on the GOP's part. It will haunt them for ages.

[5280]

At this point I think so. I don't see Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio beating Clinton in 2016, and she'll probably have a strong enough first term to win again in 2020. Then the GOP would have to get its act together and nominate someone who could beat her VP, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Letting Bush into the White House was a terrible mistake on the GOP's part. It will haunt them for ages.

Democratic party in the white house permanently? You know having one party control is bad for the country correct? North Korea and Vietnam come to mind.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

At this point I think so. I don't see Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio beating Clinton in 2016, and she'll probably have a strong enough first term to win again in 2020. Then the GOP would have to get its act together and nominate someone who could beat her VP, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Letting Bush into the White House was a terrible mistake on the GOP's part. It will haunt them for ages.

Democratic party in the white house permanently? You know having one party control is bad for the country correct? North Korea and Vietnam come to mind.

That's what his party wants.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

[Kingpoleon]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

Your 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9977

[5280]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

Your predictions are off by a mile dude, reevaluate your positions.

[Hillary pays minimum wage]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

Hillary who? Are you talking about the same Democratic woman who pays her staff minimum wage? Surely no Democrats will vote for someone like that!  Why have an election if you're saying she's already the next president?

[Kingpoleon]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

Your 2014 Gubernatorial Predictions:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9977

They weren't even that horrible, yeah he overestimated the Dems but it's not like he said they would win Iowa.

He's off by twenty-five in VT, twenty in RI, PA, fifteen in AR, NY,  AZ, off by ten in ME, KS, and MD, off by five in FL and GA, etc., etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MIDTERMS are GOP favored and presidential years are Dem favored. 2020 Senate map is a duplicate of 2016, Ernst, Gardner and Tillis are vulnerable, while Dems defend NH & MI.

The 2018 election wont be a wipe out like 2010 or 2014, so it is conceivable if Dems lose power or retain power by winning Dean Heller seat and net losing a seat or two, for them to regain power in 2020.

Hilary Clinton has a favorable map in 2016 & 2020.

Hillary who? Are you talking about the same Democratic woman who pays her staff minimum wage? Surely no Democrats will vote for someone like that!  Why have an election if you're saying she's already the next president?

I gonna go out on a limb here, and say Hilary wins nxt Nov and Dems retain Senate in 2018, because Cruz, who is the GOP nightmare is the GOP nominee and circumvented Trump in Iowa. He forced a govt shutdown over Obamacare Repeal.  Hilary will win a hard fought campaign and win.

[Maxwell]

Of course not. Even if Democrats influx of hispanic immigrants helps them for the first few elections, the second generation of hispanic immigrants will definitely not be as kind to the Democrats.

[Asian Nazi]

Of course not. Even if Democrats influx of hispanic immigrants helps them for the first few elections, the second generation of hispanic immigrants will definitely not be as kind to the Democrats.

Just like how all of the Hispanics that lived in the American Southwest for generations have completely assimilated into white American culture and vote solid R.

[Asian Nazi]

For the record I voted "yes".  But by "doomed" I think that the GOP is just in for a bit of a rough patch, like they were from 1932-1968, or the Democrats were from 1968-2008.  The next few cycles will be fairly even, since the Democrats still have a bit more room to fall among white millennials and in the South/Greater Appalachia.  But ultimately the influx of Hispanic and Asian voters + the dying off of the Silent Generation will hurt the GOP at the Presidential level, though maybe not as much as some would think.  Mexico is already taking back more immigrants than it's sending, and Hispanic birthrates are declining while white ones are increasing.  And Asian immigration is probably going to taper off a bit too.

Plus, barring a total collapse of the current political system, the GOP is not doing to disappear.  Even if the most extreme demographic projections turn out true, they'll still have a white Southern base to fall back on, just like the Democrats did during the 1920's, and will be in the best position to take advantage of any crises/screw ups on the part of the Democrat Party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2007 was the D day for GOP, when immigration reform didnt happened under Dubya.

As long as earned pathway for citizenship is an issue, and GOP block collective bargaining like minimum wage increase, then the GOP are gonna continue to do poorly in NM, CO & NV, pathway to presidency

[Slander and/or Libel]

At this point I think so. I don't see Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio beating Clinton in 2016, and she'll probably have a strong enough first term to win again in 2020. Then the GOP would have to get its act together and nominate someone who could beat her VP, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Letting Bush into the White House was a terrible mistake on the GOP's part. It will haunt them for ages.

Democratic party in the white house permanently? You know having one party control is bad for the country correct? North Korea and Vietnam come to mind.

OK. So what's the solution if the country, you know, keeps voting for the same party? Is it for that party to unilaterally disarm because one party rule is bad? I never understood this objection.

[Bojack Horseman]

All they have to do is flip Colorado, Florida, and Ohio and they've got the Democrats down to a mere 270, obviously the slimmest majority you can have. At that point, as Virginia goes, so goes the nation. And since we can't really project a long-term trend based off of two elections, that will be interesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All they have to do is flip Colorado, Florida, and Ohio and they've got the Democrats down to a mere 270, obviously the slimmest majority you can have. At that point, as Virginia goes, so goes the nation. And since we can't really project a long-term trend based off of two elections, that will be interesting.

Dems will win CO, NV, NM & Pa, they dont need Virginia

[DC Al Fine]

At this point I think so. I don't see Trump, Cruz, or even Rubio beating Clinton in 2016, and she'll probably have a strong enough first term to win again in 2020. Then the GOP would have to get its act together and nominate someone who could beat her VP, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Letting Bush into the White House was a terrible mistake on the GOP's part. It will haunt them for ages.

Democratic party in the white house permanently? You know having one party control is bad for the country correct? North Korea and Vietnam come to mind.

OK. So what's the solution if the country, you know, keeps voting for the same party? Is it for that party to unilaterally disarm because one party rule is bad? I never understood this objection.

It should work itself out anyway. Western democracies tend toward a minimum winning coalition.

The idea is that large majorities are inherently unstable, since large majorities will have more intra-party conflict.  If there is a large majority, parties will shift their stance and new issues will emerge to break a group off of the "winning" party.

According to this theory if the Democratic presidential advantage becomes more and more impregnable, eventually the an issue will emerge and/or the GOP will change enough to peel off a group from the Democrats and even thing out again.

[RFayette]

For the record I voted "yes".  But by "doomed" I think that the GOP is just in for a bit of a rough patch, like they were from 1932-1968, or the Democrats were from 1968-2008.  The next few cycles will be fairly even, since the Democrats still have a bit more room to fall among white millennials and in the South/Greater Appalachia.  But ultimately the influx of Hispanic and Asian voters + the dying off of the Silent Generation will hurt the GOP at the Presidential level, though maybe not as much as some would think.  Mexico is already taking back more immigrants than it's sending, and Hispanic birthrates are declining while white ones are increasing.  And Asian immigration is probably going to taper off a bit too.

Plus, barring a total collapse of the current political system, the GOP is not doing to disappear.  Even if the most extreme demographic projections turn out true, they'll still have a white Southern base to fall back on, just like the Democrats did during the 1920's, and will be in the best position to take advantage of any crises/screw ups on the part of the Democrat Party.

This seems fair.  I still tend to go on fundamentals.  Yes, demographics are scary for the GOP, but they are scary because the fundamentals currently don't favor them.  The economy is doing pretty well, and there was a big crash under Dubya's watch.  This fact alone explains most of the GOP's problems.  Trump, radicalization, etc. are just symptoms of that. 

[RR1997]

Of course not. Even if Democrats influx of hispanic immigrants helps them for the first few elections, the second generation of hispanic immigrants will definitely not be as kind to the Democrats.

IIRC, polls have shown that 2nd generation Hispanics are even more Democratic than 1st generation ones

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Of course not. Even if Democrats influx of hispanic immigrants helps them for the first few elections, the second generation of hispanic immigrants will definitely not be as kind to the Democrats.

IIRC, polls have shown that 2nd generation Hispanics are even more Democratic than 1st generation ones

Republicans don't have much hope for getting above 35-40% amongst Hispanics except in rare occassions. That said they do need to shut their mouths on all the gaffes and such, because that is the difference between winning or losing Colorado and Florida.

Asians are generally a far more malleable group. Their support had the biggest shift from 2012 to 2014 going from the 20s to 51%. Granted, a big portion of that was turnout, but same dynamic applies to Hispanics and they maxed out at 37% I think. Which means that the GOP has a much larger number of winnable Asian voters than winnable Hispanics.

[Mr. Illini]

Is the map stacked against them? Yes.

Are they "doomed"? No.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course not. Even if Democrats influx of hispanic immigrants helps them for the first few elections, the second generation of hispanic immigrants will definitely not be as kind to the Democrats.

IIRC, polls have shown that 2nd generation Hispanics are even more Democratic than 1st generation ones

Republicans don't have much hope for getting above 35-40% amongst Hispanics except in rare occassions. That said they do need to shut their mouths on all the gaffes and such, because that is the difference between winning or losing Colorado and Florida.

Asians are generally a far more malleable group. Their support had the biggest shift from 2012 to 2014 going from the 20s to 51%. Granted, a big portion of that was turnout, but same dynamic applies to Hispanics and they maxed out at 37% I think. Which means that the GOP has a much larger number of winnable Asian voters than winnable Hispanics.

Jeb or Kasich would have won Colorado. But, that's not the case anymore, since Cuz is gonna be nominee.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are you saying the Republicans will become the DJP? Ouch.