How will New Hampshire trend this cycle?

[Bismarck]

I think slightly D.

[Gass3268]

Stop.

[Bismarck]

It's been trending D for two decades now. It'll be as competitive as OR and WA by 2024.

I figured we'd get your input.

[Torie]

It's been trending D for two decades now. It'll be as competitive as OR and WA by 2024.

Except at least for 2012, when NH trended Pub.

[Devils30]

slightly D if Rubio, sharp D if Cruz..the state is not one for evangelicals.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Probably Democratic, but mostly as a correction from 2008 and 2012. In 2004 Kerry was a New Englander from neighboring Massachusetts, so he got a small bump from that. With Kerry off the Ticket in 2008, NH 'trended' Republican. In 2012 Romney was also a New Englander from Massachusetts like Kerry, so he got a bump from that as well.

[Torie]

It's been trending D for two decades now. It'll be as competitive as OR and WA by 2024.

Except at least for 2012, when NH trended Pub.

Dead cat bounce. You need to take a look at the long-term trend. MN trended D in 2012, does that mean it will remain a safe D state forever? Oregon trended R in 2012, does that mean it will be a tossup by 2024?

You are assuming long term cultural trends with the parties having a similar divide as now. It really does not work that way long term. Issues change, events happen that change attitudes, new facts emerge, or research, and so forth, and when a party is on the verge of ceasing to be competitive, it makes a substantial tack. Parties are in the business of carrying out an agenda to the max, while securing just enough to win. That is why most elections tend to be close, as parties maneuver using that formula. 

[Devils30]

Cruz is about as good a cultural fit for NH as Obama was for WV.

[Uhh_murican]

Obama was a good fit for the state, though Romney was as well. Neither Hillary nor Trump are great fits, but also not terrible. So if Trump picks a northerner like LePage or Christie who is a good fit for the state as VP, it will probably trend R. If not, it trends D. Probably not much of a shift in either case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hassan increases Clinton's chances. The Dems blue wall of 242-263 electors that includes NV & NM are a Colorado away from presidency.

[Rockefeller GOP]

It's been trending D for two decades now. It'll be as competitive as OR and WA by 2024.

Except at least for 2012, when NH trended Pub.

Dead cat bounce. You need to take a look at the long-term trend. MN trended D in 2012, does that mean it will remain a safe D state forever? Oregon trended R in 2012, does that mean it will be a tossup by 2024?

You are assuming long term cultural trends with the parties having a similar divide as now. It really does not work that way long term. Issues change, events happen that change attitudes, new facts emerge, or research, and so forth, and when a party is on the verge of ceasing to be competitive, it makes a substantial tack. Parties are in the business of carrying out an agenda to the max, while securing just enough to win. That is why most elections tend to be close, as parties maneuver using that formula. 

Okay, but do you really think that the GOP is going to get more liberal and completely reinvent themselves? For them to win or even make it close in NH, they'd have to nominate a Collins/Snowe ticket and that isn't happening, sorry. I would even go so far as to say that this is the best-case scenario for a Republican presidential candidate:

Jesus Christ, IL is not voting Republican before NH no matter how badly you want that to be the case.

[Clark Kent]

New Hampshire is not swinging 10% towards the Democrats, which is what would be necessary to flip Illinois. Just deal with the fact that New Hampshire is a swing state. Just being next to a solid Democratic state (a recent development too) doesn't make it a solid Democratic state. Otherwise, solid-D Maryland and solid-R West Virginia wouldn't border each other.

[buddy36]

Rubio will win it because he and Hilary are neck and neck and the debates will put him over the top