Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Ebsy]

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-49-39-iowa-poll/

I have no idea who these cats are but they are apparently a brand new polling firm.

This poll was conducted by telephone to include 433 likely Democratic Caucus voters
with a margin of error of ~4.8%. Phone numbers were selected at random through
public phone record

Likely Caucus Goers:
Clinton: 49
Sanders: 39
O'Malley: 4

They are scheduled to release GOP results for Iowa tomorrow, then South Carolina numbers on the 15th and Nevada numbers on the 17th.

[Mr. Morden]

They are scheduled to release GOP results for Iowa tomorrow, then South Carolina numbers on the 15th and Nevada numbers on the 17th.

I'm sufficiently starved for SC and NV polls that I'm looking forward to those releases, even from a polling firm with no track record.

[Why]

WE NEED MORE POLLS, GIVE US MORE POLLS.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results of post-2nd debate Atlas Straw Poll: Clinton 49-39-7
 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223035.0

Results of this poll: Clinton 49-39-4

Odd that it's so similar.....

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Results of post-2nd debate Atlas Straw Poll: Clinton 49-39-7
 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223035.0

Results of this poll: Clinton 49-39-4

Odd that it's so similar.....

CONSPIRACYY??? Yea ok.

[RI]

Since apparently this is a thing now...

http://overtimepolitics.com/new-iowa-poll-shows-trump-with-31-26-lead-over-cruz/

Trump 31
Cruz 26
Rubio 13
Carson 8
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 2
Kasich/Christie 1

That Paul result prompts some skepticism.

[King]

Since apparently this is a thing now...

http://overtimepolitics.com/new-iowa-poll-shows-trump-with-31-26-lead-over-cruz/

Trump 31
Cruz 26
Rubio 13
Carson 8
Paul 6
Bush 5
Fiorina 2
Kasich/Christie 1

That Paul result prompts some skepticism.

Not necessarily. Paul's current RCP average in Iowa is 3.8, so 6 is possible within MOE.

[Uhh_murican]

More evidence that Selzer's anti-Trump methodology is flawed. The thing about polling a caucus is that turnout can vary wildly with enthusiasm. That's what happened with Obama in '08. People wondered if his voters would really turn out for him, and they did. Similarly, people are enthusiastic for Trump, and "unlikely" voters will turn out for him now. Voters (i.e. downscale white voters who have been stomped on by the system and by both parties) are sick and tired of Obama, and Trump is the least like Obama of all the candidates. That is why he is winning, and is why he will continue to win.

[Pandaguineapig]

More evidence that Selzer's anti-Trump methodology is flawed. The thing about polling a caucus is that turnout can vary wildly with enthusiasm. That's what happened with Obama in '08. People wondered if his voters would really turn out for him, and they did. Similarly, people are enthusiastic for Trump, and "unlikely" voters will turn out for him now. Voters (i.e. downscale white voters who have been stomped on by the system and by both parties) are sick and tired of Obama, and Trump is the least like Obama of all the candidates. That is why he is winning, and is why he will continue to win.

you realize almost half of trumpholes in iowa aren't even registered to vote? Feb 1st wont be kind to this forum

[RI]

More evidence that Selzer's anti-Trump methodology is flawed. The thing about polling a caucus is that turnout can vary wildly with enthusiasm. That's what happened with Obama in '08. People wondered if his voters would really turn out for him, and they did. Similarly, people are enthusiastic for Trump, and "unlikely" voters will turn out for him now. Voters (i.e. downscale white voters who have been stomped on by the system and by both parties) are sick and tired of Obama, and Trump is the least like Obama of all the candidates. That is why he is winning, and is why he will continue to win.

you realize almost half of trumpholes in iowa aren't even registered to vote? Feb 1st wont be kind to this forum

The caucuses have election day registration.

[Pandaguineapig]

More evidence that Selzer's anti-Trump methodology is flawed. The thing about polling a caucus is that turnout can vary wildly with enthusiasm. That's what happened with Obama in '08. People wondered if his voters would really turn out for him, and they did. Similarly, people are enthusiastic for Trump, and "unlikely" voters will turn out for him now. Voters (i.e. downscale white voters who have been stomped on by the system and by both parties) are sick and tired of Obama, and Trump is the least like Obama of all the candidates. That is why he is winning, and is why he will continue to win.

you realize almost half of trumpholes in iowa aren't even registered to vote? Feb 1st wont be kind to this forum

The caucuses have election day registration.

still it goes to show that trump in adiition to losing to cruz in the polls, is almost guaranteed to underperform them

[Mr. Morden]

Overtime Politics poll of South Carolina, conducted Dec. 10-13:

http://overtimepolitics.com/donald-trump-has-a-20-point-lead-in-south-carolina/

Trump 37%
Cruz 17%
Carson 15%
Rubio 14%
Bush 4%
Paul 2%
Kasich 1%
Fiorina 1%
Christie 1%

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful!!

[Why]

A new pollster with no idea if it is any good, but it is going to be hard to stop Trump if he is dominating here.

[Badger]

Say Trump loses IA to Cruz getting at least a distant second, then vice-versa in NH: What are Cruz'S chances in SC then? Remember he leads among born again evangicals, tea partiers and self-ID'd very conservatives. Doesn't SC play to his strengths?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

The south continues to be horrible.

[The Other Castro]

The south continues to be horrible.

Have you ever had shrimp and grits? Try some and rethink your statement.

[Mr. Morden]

Overtime Politics poll of South Carolina, conducted Dec. 10-13:

http://overtimepolitics.com/south-carolina-democratic-primary-poll-clinton-56-sanders-30-sanders-making-up-ground/

Clinton 56%
Sanders 30%
O’Malley 4%

[ProgressiveCanadian]

This has got to be one of Sanders highest number in this state?

[Lief 🗽]

Well at least we know that Overtime Politics is a junk firm now.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Well at least we know that Overtime Politics is a junk firm now.

Oh! So the Trump numbers aren't true as well?

[Lief 🗽]

Well at least we know that Overtime Politics is a junk firm now.

Oh! So the Trump numbers aren't true as well?

Who knows man, who knows. But these Democratic numbers are garbage.

[Tender Branson]

Reality-denying is not good for your health, Lief.

[Eraserhead]

Hmm. That's interesting.

I'd really rather Sanders make up ground in Iowa though.

[Lief 🗽]

Reality-denying

hmmmmm