Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Overtime showed a statistical tie in Iowa, and that's what actually happened. Time to stop treating them like junk for dems. For the Republicans though........

[Alcon]

Overtime showed a statistical tie in Iowa, and that's what actually happened. Time to stop treating them like junk for dems. For the Republicans though........

...that's really not how that should work.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Overtime showed a statistical tie in Iowa, and that's what actually happened. Time to stop treating them like junk for dems. For the Republicans though........

...that's really not how that should work.

Yes it is how it should work.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Overtime showed a statistical tie in Iowa, and that's what actually happened. Time to stop treating them like junk for dems. For the Republicans though........

...that's really not how that should work.

Yes it is how it should work.

Oh yeah, please explain kid to Alcon of all people how the polls work.

[Adam Griffin]

Overtime Politics. Is not. A Real. Pollster. Repeat after me.

It's not a matter of even being a bad pollster. He is not a real pollster at all. It doesn't matter that the one dude who is literally sitting in his basement typing random figures into spreadsheets guessed halfway accurately because he looked at the mean of polling.

[Alcon]

Overtime showed a statistical tie in Iowa, and that's what actually happened. Time to stop treating them like junk for dems. For the Republicans though........

...that's really not how that should work.

Yes it is how it should work.

oh lord I'm too tired for your silly, silly nonsense tonight, but WHATEVER:

1. You are basing this conclusion on a sample size of ONE, which is statistically ridiculous from several angles.  Think about how margin of error works, among other things.

2. You are assuming, for no apparent reason whatsoever, that this pollster used a superior methodology.  It's quite possible -- likely, even -- that the other pollsters used the sound, reasonable methodology for voter screens.  It's impossible for pollsters to be psychic about voter screens.  Using a screwy voter screen and getting lucky doesn't make a pollster good, unless they can explain the methodological rationale behind their voter screen.  It just makes them screwy.  Note the difference between Ann Selzer, who didn't nail this one but can fluently discuss her approach to voter screening, and Overtime, which talks exactly how you'd expect someone who is making things up.

3. Why would you think that this pollster had some sort of secret insight into polling the Republican Primary but not the Democratic Party?  Do you have any methodological reason whatsoever to believe that, besides that they happened to get one of the races correct?

4. Most importantly, as Adam says, any reasonable person who has followed Overtime should conclude it's more likely that this pollster is NOT REAL than that they've come up with some brilliant methodological approach based on one damn poll.

5. I really doubt you have any statistically sound argument to back up your claim that "Yes it is how it should work."  This isn't an argument against your statement, but I just wanted to reiterate how completely ridiculous you're being.

GOODNIGHT

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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So much for this being one guy making up numbers for a good time.

[Oakvale]

Wulfric, has anyone ever sat you down and explained in detail how much of an idiot you are?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Guess what... Overtime got lucky, that's it.

When you pull enough numbers out of your arse, you're eventually going to get some that match up.

Considering the friends that Overtime has here, who needs enemies.

[they don't love you like i love you]

You know a couple years ago in response to the constant sh[inks]ness of ARG, we got the idea of creating a fake pollster and setting up some blog and website, creating an official looking logo, and including official sounding detail write-ups with numbers that were literally made up out of thin air, and then seeing if the media would pick up on it and give it any attention. Someone made a logo but we never got around to doing the whole thing.

It appears someone else had the same idea, and far too many are buying it hook, line and sinker.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, I just wanted you all to be the first to know that I have started my own polling firm, Griffin Analytics™, and my team of 4 people officially started dialing random numbers in Georgia today. I'll be spending approximately $1,000 of my own money each week for the remainder of 2016 so that I can supply the American people with a true snapshot of the 2016 election. We'll actually be dialing voters based on ZIP codes, which I believe to be a superior way in which to hyper-localize the actual electorate and produce superior results.

We'll be calling Georgians through Saturday and will publish our first poll's results Monday morning.

[weixiaobao]

spending approximately $1,000 of my own money each week

This is the biggest reason why I am super suspicious of them despite I am willing to trust them as strawpoll.  Spending a large sum of money for what gain??  Either they are stupid, or a thousand dollars are chum change, or they faking numbers.

I think their GOP iowa poll push me over the edge.  Other polls like DMR/Quinnipiac had an excuse because half of the days were prior to the debate and didn't quite measure the people who make last minute decision.

Polls polls all the way to Iowa caucus and or mostly after debate/or exclusively post debate portrayed the Rubio surge.

Their poll was mostly after the debate should not produce those #s, especially with Rubio that low.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AL Republicans:

Trump 37
Cruz 21
Rubio 18
Carson 6
Jebra 3
Kasich 2
Paul 1
Christie 1
Fiorina 1
Other 5

http://overtimepolitics.com/trump-leads-cruz-by-16-points-in-alabama-37-21/

[they don't love you like i love you]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

Gee, almost like it's completely made up numbers pulled out of thin air?

[The Other Castro]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

Gee, almost like it's completely made up numbers pulled out of thin air?

The Colorado numbers are out of thin air, Alabama numbers come from more of a humid and subtropical air quality.

[cinyc]

Democratic AL Poll: Clinton 54-43 ()
http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-leads-sanders-by-11-points-in-alabama-54-43/

Blacks: 69-29 Clinton
Hispanic: 58-37 Clinton
White: 53-44 Sanders

Sample was 58% white. Is that too much for Alabama?

This really seems off.

The 2008 Democratic Primary exit poll in Alabama was 45% white, 51% black.  So unless you think black primary turnout will be significantly down without Obama on the ballot, 58% white is too high.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

I see no evidence that his polls, sparing one lucky guess, are anything other than that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Very high energy polls. Or numbers polled out of a hat.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

We literally made up outright lies about Marco Rubio that were more believable than this and deservedly so got way more publicity. Anyone who falls for this is pathetic. Anyone would be able to do this with how many polling tweets are retweeted by Trump. Just give him a gigantic lead in one.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

Dude have you ever heard of catfishing? People have done far more elaborate hoaxes to just fool ONE person.

Also where is the money to conduct these "polls" coming from? They're just being posted on a blog for free, not sold to a campaign or media outlet.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

Dude have you ever heard of catfishing? People have done far more elaborate hoaxes to just fool ONE person.

Also where is the money to conduct these "polls" coming from? They're just being posted on a blog for free, not sold to a campaign or media outlet.

Either the guy is rich or has a good-paying 'second job'.