Overtime Politics Thread (WARNING: Possible fraud)

[Oakvale]

Black turnout will drop without Obama, but not by 13 points. But in any case:

Exit polls reveal the 2008 primary was 60% female. This sample was 53% female. No cause for the decrease given Hillary's still on the ballot.

JUNK POLL

An Overtime Poll is JUNK!!?!?!?!

Wash your mouth out and get back in your corner.

I'm sorry, but I'm not going to join in on the whole theory that this guy literally sits in his room making up polls and methodology tweaks, blogging, doing a reddit AMA, responding to 100s or 1000s of methodology emails, and reading the death threats some people send to him all just as a big joke to see reactions. No, I get the arguments/sequence of events, but the absolutely pathetic life someone would need to have to stay committed to that sort of joke just makes the idea simply preposterous.

If he releases a poll that is believable, I'm going to use it. I'll disregard outliers like this AL Poll.

Dude have you ever heard of catfishing? People have done far more elaborate hoaxes to just fool ONE person.

Also where is the money to conduct these "polls" coming from? They're just being posted on a blog for free, not sold to a campaign or media outlet.

Either the guy is rich or has a good-paying 'second job'.

Or, or, he's some Bernie Bro from Reddit making up numbers on a blog.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wulfric: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of note this is their stated methodology:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So where do those posted demographic sub samples in their "polls" come from? BY THEIR OWN CLAIM THEY DO NOT ASK FOR THIS INFORMATION.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Of note this is their stated methodology:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So where do those posted demographic sub samples in their "polls" come from? BY THEIR OWN CLAIM THEY DO NOT ASK FOR THIS INFORMATION.

BRTD, they have started asking for it in more recent polls. See this:

http://overtimepolitics.com/changes-to-overtime-politics-for-2016/

[This account no longer in use.]

Of note this is their stated methodology:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So where do those posted demographic sub samples in their "polls" come from? BY THEIR OWN CLAIM THEY DO NOT ASK FOR THIS INFORMATION.

I'm pretty sure that was from before they started asking for demographics.

[The Other Castro]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

[This account no longer in use.]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

I'd love for this to be real, but it's Overtime.

[RI]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

I'd love for this to be real, but it's Overtime.

It's about what I'd expect out of Maine, though.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

I'd love for this to be real, but it's Overtime.

Wasn't Overtime literally the most accurate poll in Iowa? Like only 1 point off.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

I'd love for this to be real, but it's Overtime.

Wasn't Overtime literally the most accurate poll in Iowa? Like only 1 point off.

Yea Clinton isn't winning Maine.

[IceSpear]

The Alabama poll made me literally laugh out loud. I wonder what the result would be if Overtime did a national poll. Sanders+20?

Something tells me this "polling firm" is going to mysteriously vanish into thin air the second Bernie Sanders suspends his campaign.

[This account no longer in use.]

Maine Democratic Poll:
Sanders - 56%
Clinton - 41%

http://overtimepolitics.com/pollingdata/OvertimePolitics.comFeb3-Feb5DemocraticCaucusPoll-Maine.pdf

I'd love for this to be real, but it's Overtime.

Wasn't Overtime literally the most accurate poll in Iowa? Like only 1 point off.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Lets see how their NH poll does then

[Alcon]

Even if their New Hampshire poll does fine, I'm going to remain completely skeptical about this firm.  Tarot readings are right sometimes too, and they're much more complex than creating a fake poll topline.

[The Other Castro]

Even if their New Hampshire poll does fine, I'm going to remain completely skeptical about this firm.  Tarot readings are right sometimes too, and they're much more complex than creating a fake poll topline.

They have a ton of other polls to shape their results to in IA and NH, though we'll see how they really do in NV and later states with scant polling data.

[This account no longer in use.]

Even if their New Hampshire poll does fine, I'm going to remain completely skeptical about this firm.  Tarot readings are right sometimes too, and they're much more complex than creating a fake poll topline.

They have a ton of other polls to shape their results to in IA and NH, though we'll see how they really do in NV and later states with scant polling data.

I agree. Nevada is their first real test.

[Flake]

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Overtime Politics on 2016-02-08

Summary:

Trump:	29%
Rubio:	18%
Kasich:	14%
Cruz:	11%
Bush:	8%
Other:	15%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ronnie]

There's an Overtime Politics thread, you know.

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Damn. RIP TRUMP campaign, you had a good one.

[bigedlb]

Massachusetts

Trump 43
Rubio 12
Cruz 10
Kasich 9
Bush 8
Carson 6
Christie 3
Fiorina 2


Clinton 50
Sanders 44

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the results from the NH counties bordering MA, this looks about right.

Still don't know though if Overtime is a real pollster or not ...

[Flake]

New Poll: Virginia President by Overtime Politics on 2016-02-14

Summary:

Clinton:	49%
Sanders:	46%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

Are we really still entering Overtime polls? ugh.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

VA R's:

KING TRUMP 33
Rubio 19
Kasich 14
Cruz 12
Jebra 8
Carson 8

VA D's:

Clinton 49
Sanders 46

White: 54-40 Sanders
Black: 71-27 Clinton
Hispanic: 57-39 Clinton
Asian: 67-33 Clinton
Other: 50-50 Tie

[RBH]

Fun with Overtime samples

2/12-14
White (65%): 54-40 Sanders (151-112)
Black (21%): 71-27 Clinton (63-24)
Hispanic (13%): 57-39 Clinton (31-21)
Asian (1%): 67-33 Clinton (4-2)
Other (.46%): 50-50 Tie (1-1)

1/4-7
White: 47-45 Clinton
Black: 73-23 Clinton
Hispanic: 61-34 Clinton
Asian: 73-24 Clinton
Other: 73-24 Clinton

2008 exit polls:
White (61%): 52-47 Obama
Black (30%): 90-10 Obama
Hispanic (5%): 54-46 Obama
Asian (2%)
Other (1%)

So, they randomly got multiple 73-24/73-23 results in January!