If Trump loses the primary, is it better for Dems if he goes 3rd party or not?

[Uhh_murican]

If Trump loses the Republican nomination, a lot of Democrats are gleeful about the prospect of Donald Trump being a sore loser and running as an independent. But should they be?

On the one hand, if Trump runs as an independent, he'll split the Republican presidential vote and Democrats will almost certainly win the Presidency. But on the other hand, that could help Republicans downballot and hurt Democrats in the Senate and the House, since there will be lots of Conservatives turning out to vote for both Trump and the Republican nominee.

On the other hand, if Trump just drops out, then the Presidential race would be closer, and the Republican might win. But on the other hand, Republican turnout would probably be normal or lower (if disgruntled Trump supporters don't vote), rather than being elevated by also having Trump in the race. So Democrats could have a better chance downballot of winning the Senate and picking up seats in the House.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Option 1 is better for the Dems, simply because the presidency is far more powerful than the legislative branch these days.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Trump runs 3rd party, the idea that his voters will automatically go Republican down ballot is very speculative.  Those who would vote for Trump in that circumstance are largely those who don't care for politics as usual.  There will be a fairly large portion that would vote in just the Presidential race, or cast a party line vote for whichever local party Trump is on the ballot line for.  Plus his presence on the ballot would likely energize the Democratic base somewhat, so he might end up being a net positive for the Democrats down ballot.