How will Lake County, IL, vote in 2016 Senate?

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...

That's literally not true at all, and you idiots who think that are exactly what's wrong with our party.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...

On social issues, yes. On everything else:

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...

On social issues, yes. On everything else:

And I won't say anything past everyone is a politically ignorant teenager at one point, but politics doesn't simply boil down to "Republicans are pro-life and against gay marriage, Democrats are the opposite, and anyone defying this simplistic stereotype is a RINO/DINO."  Kirk, like all moderate Republicans of every decade, steps right in line when it comes to party fiscal policy.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.

...probably Sangamon, Winnebago, Rock Island, Peoria, Will... as well.

Lol, Duckworth ain't winning Sangamon. If she loses Peoria, though, she's toast. She needs to keep downstate somewhat close because Kirk will likely carry lots of normally-Democratic turf in Chicagoland unless he just gets creamed. If she doesn't win Peoria County, I don't see how she wins.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.

...probably Sangamon, Winnebago, Rock Island, Peoria, Will... as well.

Lol, Duckworth ain't winning Sangamon. If she loses Peoria, though, she's toast. She needs to keep downstate somewhat close because Kirk will likely carry lots of normally-Democratic turf in Chicagoland unless he just gets creamed. If she doesn't win Peoria County, I don't see how she wins.

Peoria County is hardly the first county to fall downstate after the Democratic Three(TM).

The three non-Chicagoland counties that we can assume will go Dem are St. Clair, Johnson, and Alexander Counties. They are pretty reliable.

To win, Duckworth will need to compensate for Kirk's strong suburban performance by doing relatively well downstate, you are right. She can do it without Peoria County, though.

The first county to fall after the big three is Fulton County, IMO. Quinn almost won there in 2014. Then Rock Island County.

If Duckworth wins those five non-Chicagoland counties and not Peoria, it would look like this.



I think that that is a Duckworth victory. 70% in Cook for Tammy, 50s for Kirk in all suburbs except Will, which is 40s. And then relatively favorable margins for Duckworth downstate.

[SATW]

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...

no...no...he's not, but thank you for proving whats wrong with the party.

[RINO Tom]

Kirk is winning Lake County, and it's pathetic that any Republican ever loses it.

[Green Line]

Why would Tammy Duckworth have any appeal downstate? If anything, she'll perform about as poorly as Obama did there. Shes seen as a Chicago democrat and has no downstate ties.

[Mr. Illini]

Why would Tammy Duckworth have any appeal downstate? If anything, she'll perform about as poorly as Obama did there. Shes seen as a Chicago democrat and has no downstate ties.

Kirk is a similarly bad fit, but has had much more time in the public eye to be demonized down there

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

If Duckworth wins those five non-Chicagoland counties and not Peoria, it would look like this.



I think that that is a Duckworth victory. 70% in Cook for Tammy, 50s for Kirk in all suburbs except Will, which is 40s. And then relatively favorable margins for Duckworth downstate.

When did you of all posters suddenly get so optimistic on Kirk's ability to carry Lake and Will? If Hillary manages to steamroll Trump, I fully expect lots of GOPers like Kirk, Johnson, and Ayotte to be flattened by the sheer anti-GOP sentiment. Kirk being a good fit for the suburbs wouldn't help in such a horrible environment.

If anything I would put good money on the 2016 IL Senate county results to look more like Obama's 2012 county map, minus the ones he won with pluralities (Jo Davies, DuPage, Putname, Kane, etc.) and with much narrower margins but a comfortable Duckworth win.

[SATW]

Lake county is where Kirk is from. and he won it 56% to 39% in 2010. I think he wins it like 51-47, while losing like 53-45 statewide.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Lake county is where Kirk is from. and he won it 56% to 39% in 2010. I think he wins it like 51-47, while losing like 53-45 statewide.

I know that and all, but 2010 was a midterm and 2016 is a Presidential year. I'm sure he can keep it very close (maybe even 49-49), but I don't really see him winning it.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Lake county is where Kirk is from. and he won it 56% to 39% in 2010. I think he wins it like 51-47, while losing like 53-45 statewide.

I know that and all, but 2010 was a midterm and 2016 is a Presidential year. I'm sure he can keep it very close (maybe even 49-49), but I don't really see him winning it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the main Democratic crunch RE: midterms that minorities and young people don't turn out?  That's not exactly the GOP's problem in Lake ... is it?

[Torie]

Lake county is where Kirk is from. and he won it 56% to 39% in 2010. I think he wins it like 51-47, while losing like 53-45 statewide.

I know that and all, but 2010 was a midterm and 2016 is a Presidential year. I'm sure he can keep it very close (maybe even 49-49), but I don't really see him winning it.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the main Democratic crunch RE: midterms that minorities and young people don't turn out?  That's not exactly the GOP's problem in Lake ... is it?

It's white non Hispanic population is about the same as the state of Illinois as a whole, and more Hispanic than the state, about half as black, and somewhat more Asian. Given that it is the Hispanic turnout that oscillates the most between presidential and off year election cycles, yes the Pubs have to "worry" about this. Muon2 has noted to me that Hispanics in his home town tend to not turn out in non Presidential years in DuPage, and the same would be true in Lake.

Oh, and Lake Forest and adjacent parts of Libertyville (where Adlai Stevenson's farm was, and maybe still is owned by his heirs, if it has not yet been paved over with a subdivision) are basically at the end of the line of the stereotypical famed upper middle class to wealthy north shore suburbs of Chicago. The SES of Waukegan (heavily Hispanic now) is on another planet as compared to Lake Forest.



Here, one literally visually see where the wealth zone ends in Lake on its western and northern
ends. The shift is pretty dramatic.

[Mr. Illini]

Here, one literally visually see where the wealth zone ends in Lake on its western and northern
ends. The shift is pretty dramatic.

Keep in mind that this is a demographic map, not a wealth map. Not necessarily the same, as if you zoom out you'll find that the NW quadrant of the county is just as white but it is not particularly wealthy.

Also keep in mind how complicated the North Shore is politically. Certainly impossible to throw it under one umbrella.



Lake Forest is solid Pub but Highland Park and Glencoe are the opposite (LF=Christian, HP/Glencoe=Jewish). North Evanston and Wilmette have money but a more cosmopolitan/urban vibe, explaining the solid Dem.

Winnetka and Kenilworth have extreme wealth and are Christian in heritage. Why Winnetka isn't consistently Pub like Kenilworth is, I have no idea. One of the seven wonders of Illinois voting trends.

Only guess that I could give would be some spillover of Jewish population into Winnetka from Glencoe, but I've never seen evidence of it.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.

...probably Sangamon, Winnebago, Rock Island, Peoria, Will... as well.

Lol, Duckworth ain't winning Sangamon. If she loses Peoria, though, she's toast. She needs to keep downstate somewhat close because Kirk will likely carry lots of normally-Democratic turf in Chicagoland unless he just gets creamed. If she doesn't win Peoria County, I don't see how she wins.

Peoria County is hardly the first county to fall downstate after the Democratic Three(TM).

The three non-Chicagoland counties that we can assume will go Dem are St. Clair, Johnson, and Alexander Counties. They are pretty reliable.

To win, Duckworth will need to compensate for Kirk's strong suburban performance by doing relatively well downstate, you are right. She can do it without Peoria County, though.

The first county to fall after the big three is Fulton County, IMO. Quinn almost won there in 2014. Then Rock Island County.

If Duckworth wins those five non-Chicagoland counties and not Peoria, it would look like this.



I think that that is a Duckworth victory. 70% in Cook for Tammy, 50s for Kirk in all suburbs except Will, which is 40s. And then relatively favorable margins for Duckworth downstate.

I wouldn't try to make too many comparisons to the 2014 map. That was a midterm election under unusual circumstances and for a state, not federal, office. The more relevant comparison is to the Obama 2012 map where the old industrial northwest (west and north of the Illinois River, mostly Cheri Bustos's district) went blue. It is there where Duckworth must do well.

Presidential elections are less Cook vs. downstate than off-year ones, and in counties like Peoria (largest downstate metro other than St. Louis), minorities don't really vote in midterms like they do in presidential elections. The inner city has a large black population and (if I remember right) has a sizable Jewish minority as well.

So, I guess what I'm saying is that if blacks aren't turning out at a rate sufficient to turn Peoria County blue (or if the county's whites turn out at such a high percentage for Kirk that the county goes red anyway), that will signal trouble for Duckworth in the rest of the state.

I guess she can do it without Peoria County, but that's not the most likely scenario in which she wins if you ask me.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...

That's literally not true at all, and you idiots who think that are exactly what's wrong with our party.

He's not that wrong, though. Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin are probably more conservative on social issues than Kirk. Kirk is just an useless bloodthirsty neocon who likes to kill civilians and abort babies. I will be happy to see him lose, but then again it might not even happen because the Democrats will nominate Duckworth. Bustos or Madigan should have run.

Bustos could have done well, but how would the daughter of the extremely unpopular Speaker Madigan win a Senate race? Republicans would be howling about him trying to buy the Senate seat from day one.

Even Republicans who approve of her job as attorney general (and voted for her) like me.