How will Lake County, IL, vote in 2016 Senate?
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  How will Lake County, IL, vote in 2016 Senate?
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Poll
Question: How will it?
#1
Duckworth
 
#2
Kirk
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 58

Author Topic: How will Lake County, IL, vote in 2016 Senate?  (Read 4987 times)
Mr. Illini
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« on: December 15, 2015, 12:37:28 AM »

Lake County is Kirk's home base and he has always been very popular even among Democrats there.

Yet, Lake has firmly established itself as the most Democratic collar county (it was the only one to vote for Durbin over Oberweis last year in an unusually strong GOP showing against King Durbin) and will very likely vote for the Democratic nominee for President. Not to mention that he is becoming increasingly unpopular with his long-time supporters as a result of some pretty ridiculous statements and votes.

This on top of the fact that Duckworth seems to be a Democrat that was built for the suburbs and she lives just across the county border in Cook's NW burbs.

How does it vote?
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Bismarck
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2015, 02:13:57 PM »

Kirk wins with 49%.
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2015, 02:26:14 PM »

Kirk won by something like 18 points in Lake in 2010, while winning the state by 2 points. So even if he loses by a few points, one would think it likely he will win Lake County.
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Holmes
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« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2015, 10:59:43 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 11:01:38 PM by Holmes »

Kirk by 4-5%. Loses statewide by 10-12%.

Kirk won by something like 18 points in Lake in 2010, while winning the state by 2 points. So even if he loses by a few points, one would think it likely he will win Lake County.

True, but when Kirk loses, it'll be the Chicago burbs that will swing the harshest against him, not Cook county or downstate counties.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2015, 12:17:32 PM »

Kirk by 2-3%.


That would mean Duckworth is essentially matching Hillary (I expect Hillary to win 55-43 or so in the state, Obama's 57-41 was due to being from IL). Sorry, not happening.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2015, 08:42:33 PM »

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2015, 09:06:02 PM »

55-43 Kirk. Twelve point victory, three to five points smaller than last time.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2015, 11:41:43 AM »

Kirk will probably win it 52-46 or so, but it probably won't be enough to save him.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2015, 08:59:07 PM »

Sorry to bump, but I thought I would input my thoughts. Lake usually votes 9 to 10 points right of the state. Duckworth would have to win by double digits just by that alone, but there's also Kirk's former house seat, which is mainly based in Lake too, so add a couple points there, and it becomes very hard for Duckworth to win outside of a landslide. The likeliest scenario is a moderate 5-7 point victory for Kirk.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2015, 01:02:10 AM »

55-42 Kirk. Wins statewide by 0.2% or so.

Keep holding out hope!
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Green Line
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2015, 01:26:15 AM »

Kirk may lose, but this thread and its creator are so hackish its sad.  That desperate for a win? I mean, sure, you were completely wrong about Quinn. Those posts mocking rauner sure look dumb now. I wouldn't be calling the election now though if I were you guys. Do you want to have egg on your face 2 elections in a row?
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Miles
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2015, 01:53:52 AM »

^ Clearly, the people miss their hero, considering Rauner's miserable approvals. I don't see them making a similar mistake in this race.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2015, 03:19:29 AM »

Kirk could still win, but considering the comments he's made this year, along with the headwinds he'll face, it's not unreasonable to consider him the underdog.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2015, 10:15:33 AM »

The GOP are gonna be dominated up and down the ballot, even Munger, who is popular, is gonna lose to Mendoza. The State let the wrong Gov in office in Rauner, last time.

Kirk also voted against immigration reform.  He will lose by 4-5 points.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2015, 11:32:51 AM »
« Edited: December 24, 2015, 11:36:52 AM by Mr. Illini »

Kirk may lose, but this thread and its creator are so hackish its sad.  That desperate for a win? I mean, sure, you were completely wrong about Quinn. Those posts mocking rauner sure look dumb now. I wouldn't be calling the election now though if I were you guys. Do you want to have egg on your face 2 elections in a row?

Merry Christmas, Green Line! Love having you around.

Everyone knows that Kirk cannot campaign at the level that he did in 2010 (and has to to win a high-profile Senate election in a solid Dem state in a Presidential year).

That's a lot more difficult of a Pub win than a political outsider taking on one of the most unpopular governors in the country in a midterm year.

I'll be happy to return to this thread in November 2016 to see who has egg on their face.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2015, 11:41:25 AM »

Captain Kirk is gonna get Santorum'd in the face
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Green Line
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« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2015, 08:59:04 PM »

Kirk may lose, but this thread and its creator are so hackish its sad.  That desperate for a win? I mean, sure, you were completely wrong about Quinn. Those posts mocking rauner sure look dumb now. I wouldn't be calling the election now though if I were you guys. Do you want to have egg on your face 2 elections in a row?

Merry Christmas, Green Line! Love having you around.

Everyone knows that Kirk cannot campaign at the level that he did in 2010 (and has to to win a high-profile Senate election in a solid Dem state in a Presidential year).

That's a lot more difficult of a Pub win than a political outsider taking on one of the most unpopular governors in the country in a midterm year.

I'll be happy to return to this thread in November 2016 to see who has egg on their face.

Sorry for the late response, Merry Christmas! Im not predicting a Kirk win, just trying to keep you honest Wink
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2015, 01:06:07 PM »

with Demographic, Democrat gonna win almost...
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: December 26, 2015, 11:36:44 PM »

Captain Kirk is gonna get Santorum'd in the face

I highly doubt that. I don't think he'll win, but I think it'll at least be respectable.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2015, 05:51:05 PM »

Kirk by about 5 points. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2016, 05:04:21 PM »

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.

...probably Sangamon, Winnebago, Rock Island, Peoria, Will... as well.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2016, 11:21:40 PM »

Duckworth will likely win 52/48. She will lose Lake 4-5 but Cook will come in big for her.

...probably Sangamon, Winnebago, Rock Island, Peoria, Will... as well.

Probably not Sangamon. If not Lake, then not Will. Winnebago unlikely as well.

She'll win St. Claire, Johnson, and Alexander Counties solidly, though.
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Skye
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2016, 01:30:47 PM »

I don't think so. He'd have to lose by more than 10 points, which is something I doubt.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2016, 04:31:17 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2016, 04:32:52 PM by OC »

I think this race is over, but it WI & IL will be decided by 4/5 pts, where NV & FL, NH will be won by Dems but by 51/49 margins and we will see about Pennsylvania.

A large swath of Latinos are moving into tbe suburbs & Mark Kirk blocked comprehensive inmigration reform.  LATINOS also have Mendoza running as well on state ticket. We will see what happens.

It will probably be 50/45 Duckworth.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #24 on: January 05, 2016, 07:56:59 AM »

Kirk...Kirk is basically a democrat anyway so...
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