If Hillary wins narrowly, will this be the map?

[Talleyrand]

270-268.

In my opinion, this will be the map if she wins at all.

[Asian Nazi]

No, at the very least Virginia will flip before Iowa will.

[Xing]

It's plausible, though you could switch CO/IA and VA (the famous 272 freiwal)

[Bojack Horseman]

Something like that. Right now I'm saying 303-233 Hillary.

[ProudModerate2]

No, at the very least Virginia will flip before Iowa will.

I agree.
If you want a "Hillary wins narrowly" then Iowa (like Virginia) needs to be colored Democratic.
Thus your "narrow" win for Hillary would be 276-262.

After this change, it is then Virginia that is the state that could be considered "key" towards victory, for either side.
Victory of Virginia for Dems = 276-262.
Victory of Virginia for Reps = 275-263.

[/]

Looks familiar...

[RI]

If we're assuming whites trend hard against the Dems, minorities hold their turnout, and Clinton continues to underperform in the Mountain West, then yes that's a very possible map.

[Ebsy]

That's the map I use to show that Clinton is almost certainly going to win.

[RI]

That's the map I use to show that Clinton is almost certainly going to win.

VA is hardly in the bag for Clinton. She has the advantage, but not insurmountably so.

[Ebsy]

Clinton is honestly the perfect candidate for Virginia and will carry it easily.

[Kingpoleon]

No. She might get that map against Kasich, if he loses the debates terribly to her. If she wins narrowly, she'll win OH. If she doesn't win OH, she loses the EV. I guarantee it.

[ProudModerate2]

If she wins narrowly, she'll win OH. If she doesn't win OH, she loses the EV. I guarantee it.

No !! That's the silliest prediction I have heard so far.

[5280]

That's actually my prediction, so yes.

[EliteLX]

Been my prediction for nearly the last year.

If she goes head to head with Trump on the other hand, the map won't look anything like that.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary won't win.

[Higgs]

Something like that. Right now I'm saying 303-233 Hillary.

Do you have a map for this?

[Talleyrand]

Something like that. Right now I'm saying 303-233 Hillary.

Do you have a map for this?

He means 303-235, which is probably just Obama 2012 without Florida.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Something like that. Right now I'm saying 303-233 Hillary.

Do you have a map for this?

He means 303-235, which is probably just Obama 2012 without Florida.

I have 2012 redux as the map right now. With IA, FL, OH as the question marks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She can also win 272-266, and Iowa is a tipping point race

[pbrower2a]

My minimum.

She can also win 272-266, and Iowa is a tipping point race

Iowa was the tipping-point state in 2008. I would pick either Virginia or Pennsylvania this time.

I'm tempted to believe that Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders will win Iowa in the general election as attention begins to equalize between  the Democrats and Republicans after the Iowa caucuses. Republicans have a huge edge in attention now for obvious reasons, but that will dissipate. 

[Ebsy]

Yes (IA will be more Republican than VA in 2016), but I think she'll either lose or win decisively.

Clinton is honestly the perfect candidate for Virginia and will carry it easily.

Just like Romney was an excellent fit for NH, Warner and McAuliffe were supposed to win in a landslide, etc. etc.

Except they did up winning in non-presidential years and in a presidential year. Virginia won't be in doubt for long on election night and once it and Nevada (which Clinton will also easily carry) are called, the election will be over. Who cares about Ohio, Florida, Ohio, and Iowa when Clinton doesn't need to win any of them to win the election?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

No, at the very least Virginia will flip before Iowa will.

I'm not entirely sure about that. A SJW-themed Clinton campaign would have plenty of ground to lose with Iowa rural whites. Joni Ernst turned a bunch of Obama counties red last year. But such a campaign may nut hurt her as much in the more urban Virginia.