What was your former predictions? (GOP edition)
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  What was your former predictions? (GOP edition)
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Author Topic: What was your former predictions? (GOP edition)  (Read 2056 times)
weixiaobao
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« on: December 17, 2015, 01:12:59 AM »

2015 is ending.  And soon, we will know how the race stands going into 2016.

So back in July, who did you think the front runner going into the new year would be?
Who did you formerly back vs who are you backing now?
And how long did you think Trump lasted?

In 2011, this is about the time where Gingrich starting to collapse.
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2015, 01:26:58 AM »

I think July was the month I realized Trump actually had a chance of getting the nomination.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2015, 01:27:40 AM »

Aftermath of 2012 election: Rubio
Most of 2013: Christie
Post-Bridgegate: Walker
As Walker began to fall: Bush
As Bush began to fall: Rubio
Now I see it as a three-way race between Rubio, Cruz, and Trump.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2015, 01:37:11 AM »

All of 2013- Christe
Bridgegate to Midterm election: Bush
Midterm election to Linup of First GOP Debate announced- Walker
Linup of first debate announced to 2nd debate: Kasich
2nd debate-Present: Rubio

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Cory
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2015, 01:49:23 AM »

Aftermath of 2012 election: Rubio
Most of 2013: Christie
Post-Bridgegate: Walker
As Walker began to fall: Bush
As Bush began to fall: Rubio
Now I see it as a three-way race between Rubio, Cruz, and Trump.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2015, 02:10:13 AM »

Christie until Bridgegate
Rubio from Bridgegate until the NH Voters First Forum
Walker from the Voters First Forum until the first debate (about five days)
Trump from the first debate on
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2015, 03:02:38 AM »

Too many to count.
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Pyro
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« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2015, 03:32:53 AM »

Bush and Christie probably in most of 2014.
Paul when he entered the race.
Bush when Paul made it clear he wasn't in it to win it.
Kasich/Rubio tie in Aug/Sept when Walker flopped and Trump murdered Bush in the debates.
Rubio until this 3-Man race thing became the new norm.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2015, 03:34:14 AM »

If you want to go way back to 2011, I was predicting that Christie and Rubio would be the top two most likely 2016 nominees (assuming Obama reelection in 2012).  In March 2012, here's what I predicted to be the early nomination odds in the betting markets (again, if we were to assume an Obama win in the 2012 GE):

GOP

Christie 18
Rubio 18
Jindal 11
McDonnell 10
Bush 8
Ryan 8
Huckabee 6
Palin 5
Santorum 5
Rand Paul 4

Of course, that was pre-Ryan being selected as VP, but as I recall, at that time, Christie, Rubio, Jindal, McDonnell, and Ryan were all being talked about as potential Romney running mates, so I think I was factoring in the possibility that one of them might get a boost from being Mitt's veep nominee.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2015, 12:28:02 PM »

Jeb, then Walker, then Trump.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2015, 12:34:30 PM »

I never bought into the Walker hype and was a big skeptic of Bush as well.  I didn't really have an idea of who would supplant them though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2015, 12:54:23 PM »

I may be the worst - I thought Paul had a real chance at the nomination for a while.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2015, 01:02:11 PM »

In July:

Prediction: Walker
Personal Support: Walker
How Long Trump Would Last: Not Long

Now:

Prediction: Rubio, though Trump and Cruz have a chance as well
Personal Support: Rubio
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2015, 04:59:56 PM »

4 months ago, right after the first GOP debate that the pundits awarded to Kasich and Rubio, I predicted an upcoming Carson collapse (got the trigger wrong though) paving the way for Cruz vs Trump to close out the year. And not to pick on Famous Mortimer for his idealism but his prediction that the GOP would avoid Islamaphobia is not holding up well.

May I humbly suggest a scenario to root for? Since this will probably sink Carson and Fiorina's pro-Islam speech will probably sink her, the Cruz surge is probably coming. We want to see him stubbornly trail only Trump by only 5 points after he has made such a big show of (a) declining to attack anyone (b) cozying up to Trump. And then a frantic Cruz vs Trump to close out the year? That's fun.

This could sink Carson. No one gives a crap about Fiorina saying nice things about non-al Qaeda Muslims outside some Washington Express writer and Democrats on Atlas though.

I think the opposite is true. Democrats on Atlas don't care about it. A GOP primary electorate who fears Sharia Law will imminently replace the Constitution would care if she gets enough momentum for an opponent to promote this.

No Republican politician is going to launch an openly racist attack on her for saying that not all Muslims are bad.

A month later, with Carson and Trump in a 2-man race, I reiterated the pick it would be Cruz vs Trump.

I think in 2011, Iowa's rotating leaders largely tracked with national polling and the same happens here. The only departure I recall was Santorum's last-minute surge in Iowa preceded his national one which didn't happen until a month into voting I think.

I do think Cruz is poised to surge in Iowa and maybe nationally too. He's winning over opinion leaders and Carson has a problem with fetal tissue research. As I speculated before, an entertaining scenario is Cruz trailing Trump the way Carson is now and on record as not wanting to attack other Republicans (but obviously prepared to do so).

Also, there was a thread on most likely person to be elected president in 2016. Obviously, it's always been Hillary but some people made very wrong predictions and I collected them for fun last summer.

The wrongests!


Also, I don't think Hillary is going to run, though if she does, she of course keeps the strongest Democrat alternatives out of the race.

Taking all that into account:
1. Rand Paul



Anybody have a different opinion after the midterms?

1. Scott Walker
2. Ted Cruz
3. Hillary Clinton

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

Bush, Walker, Ryan, Paul, Kasich, in no particular order



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darthebearnc
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2015, 05:01:03 PM »

Bush
Rubio
Trump
Cruz
Trump
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2015, 05:11:16 PM »

First Walker.

Then Rubio.

Now Cruz.
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angus
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2015, 05:14:52 PM »

And how long did you think Trump lasted?

I first thought it fad.  
Then thought it mad.  
After the first debate I was glad
(because I thought Trump's victory forbad)

But to my surprise
He continued to rise
I still can't visualize
that Trump they glamorize

And I'm still mistyfied
That he has been denied
The electorate's chide
Or political suicide.

At this point I'll mention
that I have yet no intention
of predicting Trump's ascension
In the Republican convention.

But then, I always manage to get these things wrong.
Perhaps it seems more clever if I couch it in song.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2015, 05:16:41 PM »

And how long did you think Trump lasted?

I first thought it fad.  
Then thought it mad.  
After the first debate I was glad
(because I thought Trump's victory forbad)

But to my surprise
He continued to rise
I still can't visualize
that Trump they glamorize

And I'm still mistyfied
That he has been denied
The electorate's chide
Or political suicide.

At this point I'll mention
that I have yet no intention
of predicting Trump's ascension
In the Republican convention.

But then, I always manage to get these things wrong.
Perhaps it seems more clever if I couch it in song.


I can't be the only one who was just moved to tears.
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daveosupremo
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2015, 05:51:12 PM »

From the day after the 2012 election until the day he dropped out, I thought Walker would be the nominee.

Now I think it will be Cruz.
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Higgs
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2015, 06:04:11 PM »

I thought it was Paul for the longest time until around when Trump jumped in and Paul's numbers started going down. After that I thought it was Bush and now I'm split between Cruz and Rubio.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2015, 07:51:32 PM »

Back in late 2013 or early 2014 I predicted that Jeb would be a very strong candidate.  I was dead wrong.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2015, 07:52:43 PM »

First Walker or Rubio
Now Rubio or Cruz
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Slow Learner
Battenberg
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2015, 07:56:00 PM »

Few months in 2013: Bush.
Post Bridgegate: Walker.
Post Walker dropout: Cruz/Carson tie.
Now: Trump.
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VPH
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« Reply #23 on: December 17, 2015, 08:28:41 PM »

Let's see. Before Bridgegate, I thought Christie had the GOP primary locked up. I assumed that Walker was going to tie up the race quickly. Then it was Bush.
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Camaro33
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« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2015, 09:10:43 PM »

2013: Christie
2014 post Bridgegate: Jeb Bush
2015 after Jeb's lackluster debates: Trump, Cruz, Rubio

I think it's going to come down to Cruz or Trump for the nomination (unfortunately for the brand of the GOP to the current and future American electorate). I'd much rather see Rubio, since he would definitely outperform Mitt Romney with nonwhite demographics and broaden appeal to the overall electorate, whereas Cruz or Trump would harm the GOP brand win or lose. Although with that said, I think either 3 would be better than Hillary (third term Obama, just more lying/scandals etc).
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