What was your former predictions? (GOP edition)

[Bull Moose Base]

4 months ago, right after the first GOP debate that the pundits awarded to Kasich and Rubio, I predicted an upcoming Carson collapse (got the trigger wrong though) paving the way for Cruz vs Trump to close out the year. And not to pick on Famous Mortimer for his idealism but his prediction that the GOP would avoid Islamaphobia is not holding up well.

May I humbly suggest a scenario to root for? Since this will probably sink Carson and Fiorina's pro-Islam speech will probably sink her, the Cruz surge is probably coming. We want to see him stubbornly trail only Trump by only 5 points after he has made such a big show of (a) declining to attack anyone (b) cozying up to Trump. And then a frantic Cruz vs Trump to close out the year? That's fun.

This could sink Carson. No one gives a crap about Fiorina saying nice things about non-al Qaeda Muslims outside some Washington Express writer and Democrats on Atlas though.

I think the opposite is true. Democrats on Atlas don't care about it. A GOP primary electorate who fears Sharia Law will imminently replace the Constitution would care if she gets enough momentum for an opponent to promote this.

No Republican politician is going to launch an openly racist attack on her for saying that not all Muslims are bad.

A month later, with Carson and Trump in a 2-man race, I reiterated the pick it would be Cruz vs Trump.

I think in 2011, Iowa's rotating leaders largely tracked with national polling and the same happens here. The only departure I recall was Santorum's last-minute surge in Iowa preceded his national one which didn't happen until a month into voting I think.

I do think Cruz is poised to surge in Iowa and maybe nationally too. He's winning over opinion leaders and Carson has a problem with fetal tissue research. As I speculated before, an entertaining scenario is Cruz trailing Trump the way Carson is now and on record as not wanting to attack other Republicans (but obviously prepared to do so).

Also, there was a thread on most likely person to be elected president in 2016. Obviously, it's always been Hillary but some people made very wrong predictions and I collected them for fun last summer.

The wrongests!

1. Jeb Bush

Also, I don't think Hillary is going to run, though if she does, she of course keeps the strongest Democrat alternatives out of the race.

Taking all that into account:
1. Rand Paul

#2 Schweitzer
#5 Huntsman

1. Chris Christie

Anybody have a different opinion after the midterms?

1. Scott Walker
2. Ted Cruz
3. Hillary Clinton

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton
Obviously if by some miracle Hillary doesn't run then all bets are off.

Bush, Walker, Ryan, Paul, Kasich, in no particular order

1. John Kasich

1. Jeb Bush

1. Paul

[Bull Moose Base]

And how long did you think Trump lasted?

I first thought it fad.  
Then thought it mad.  
After the first debate I was glad
(because I thought Trump's victory forbad)

But to my surprise
He continued to rise
I still can't visualize
that Trump they glamorize

And I'm still mistyfied
That he has been denied
The electorate's chide
Or political suicide.

At this point I'll mention
that I have yet no intention
of predicting Trump's ascension
In the Republican convention.

But then, I always manage to get these things wrong.
Perhaps it seems more clever if I couch it in song.

I can't be the only one who was just moved to tears.