Fox News national poll: Clinton leads Trump by 11; close race w/ other Repubs

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News national poll, conducted Dec. 16-17:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/12/18/fox-news-poll-2016-gop-race-trump-muslim-ban-terrorism-isis/

Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

Clinton 46%
Carson 44%

Clinton 45%
Cruz 45%

Rubio 45%
Clinton 43%

[Matty]

Lol at trump

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wonder why Trump isn't hyping the national polls on his Twitter like he does the ones for the primary...

[Ebsy]

Good numbers for Clinton.

[HillOfANight]

Good numbers for Clinton.

True that. She has pretty much always trailed in the Fox polls. These swings are so severe though, I think it's more likely Fox is reverting to the norm of other pollsters, rather than any actual real movement. No way she trailed Trump by 5 and now leads by 11, a 16 point swing in a month.

Clinton 49% (41)
Trump 38% (46)

Clinton 46% (42)
Carson 44% (47)

Clinton 45% (41)
Cruz 45% (45)

Rubio 45% (50)
Clinton 43% (42)

[EliteLX]

Oh my dear, down by 11!

What a surprise, again, some more!

[King]

Oh my dear, down by 11!

What a surprise, again, some more!

I give Trump a better chance of coming back from this deficit and winning than I do any of the other three holding on to their fragile far-below-50 lead/ties over the course of the next 11 months.

Trump is the only candidate that can offer something to the lower and middle class voter. It could be likely they reject him, but it's guaranteed Jeb, Rubio, Cruz, etc. will be rejected.

[pbrower2a]

Say what you want about FoX News Channel -- but it has typically gotten good and reliable polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not gonna be a typical 2012 election. Co or Va may decide the race. Dems need not to underestimate Trump or Cruz

[HAnnA MArin County]

I wonder when Trump will start going after the pollsters as lightweights and losers and get his sheeple to rebel against them too for not being "nice" to him.

[Skye]

Say what you want about FoX News Channel -- but it has typically gotten good and reliable polls.

lol, not according to this site.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Say what you want about FoX News Channel -- but it has typically gotten good and reliable polls.

This is completely false - there was an obvious pro-Jeb, anti-Paul bias early in the primary season. This is just more lies.

[EliteLX]

It's so so funny watching both Democrats & Pubs run to literally any reason to affirm or discard a poll that they like or don't like. If it's great numbers for somebody they enjoy the poll is wonderful news and the race is changing heavily and voters are waking up, but if the numbers don't favor their opinion it's either wrong demographics, trash pollster, biased polling, only showing those numbers because X event, .etc.

Too funny.

[Phony Moderate]

If favorability polls are anything to go by then the electorate seems to like Trump the more they hear about him. The opposite is true for Hillary.

[pbrower2a]

Say what you want about FoX News Channel -- but it has typically gotten good and reliable polls.

lol, not according to this site.

At this point I am going with the 2008/2012 record.

Polls by reputable posters will jump around as events shape an election. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt the election will be a duplicate 2012. Obama's approvals are pretty low. But, Trump has a problem with non white voters with the Telemundo poll. Hilary will do very well by winning SW.

[Mr. Morden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Note that the questions are the same except that Trump’s name is included in the latter version.  Half of those polled got the version of the question with Trump’s name, and the other half got the version without his name.

What if we break it down by party:

Dems:
Favor Muslim ban if Trump’s name isn’t mentioned: 45%
Oppose Muslim ban if Trump’s name isn’t mentioned: 53%

Dems:
Favor Muslim ban if Trump’s name is attached to the proposal: 25%
Oppose Muslim ban if Trump’s name is attached to the proposal: 72%

GOP:
Favor Muslim ban if Trump’s name isn’t mentioned: 72%
Oppose Muslim ban if Trump’s name isn’t mentioned: 23%

GOP:
Favor Muslim ban if Trump’s name is attached to the proposal: 71%
Oppose Muslim ban if Trump’s name is attached to the proposal: 24%

So a majority of Dems oppose it, but there’s a ~20 point gap in their opposition depending on whether you include Trump’s name as the proponent of the idea.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL. Trump will continue to talk about the month old Fox poll during interviews. "Ill beat Hillary easily in the Fox poll. I'll beat her, because her record is so bad".

[pbrower2a]

Here's my projection of Clinton winning by 11% against Donald Trump based upon

(1) current polls
(2) polls from before the attention to Benghazi and the private server
(3) recent electoral behavior of the states

Note: (2) is now more realistic than (1)

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

80% blue -- Trump by 10% or more
50% blue -- Trump by 4-9.9%
20% blue -- Trump by 1-3.9%
white -- virtual tie
20% red -- Clinton by 1-3.9%
50% red -- Clinton by 4-9.9%
80% red -- Clinton by 10% or more

If you are wondering about Kansas, Louisiana, and Utah -- Kansas seems to be getting increasingly unsatisfied with Republicans. Louisiana elected a Democrat as Governor last month. Utah? Trump is doing very badly for a Republican; I think that Mormons are dissatisfied with his business dealings and personal lifestyle

...55-44? The problem with such a margin for my projection  is that the Democrats haven't won an election with anything like such a spread since 1944. I can't see Hillary Clinton outdoing Barack Obama's wins where Obama won by 10% or more, at least by much. Her gains would be almost exclusively in states that often voted firmly against Barack Obama in 2008. At this point the popular vote is about as close to Reagan 1984 as to Obama 2008.

Note that this projection is based on a 11% margin of a Clinton win over Trump which I see little cause of happening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rasmussen & Fox, usually  do polling in conjunction with each other & the way they had Jeb up over Clinton,I doubt these are its closest polls. The last Rassy poll had Trump by 2. So, in a close,race, Clinton should be up 2.

[Adam Griffin]

Is this a poll of all adults, RV or LV (yes, I know, "Likely Voters" aren't a thing right now, but I noticed that in 2014 polling, some pollsters were using LV models 6 months out or more)?

EDIT: Sorry - it finally loaded up. RV it is, then.