Behind-the-scenes Rubio crash??
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  Behind-the-scenes Rubio crash??
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Author Topic: Behind-the-scenes Rubio crash??  (Read 1664 times)
Lyin' Steve
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« on: December 18, 2015, 10:33:00 PM »

He's dropped like ten points on PredictIt in the last couple days.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2015, 10:35:19 PM »

Looks like I sold at exactly the right time.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2015, 10:37:27 PM »

People are realizing that his campaign is a shallow media creation.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: December 18, 2015, 10:46:43 PM »

Traders are finally catching up to Atlas reality. Forgive me Lief for not believing in the Donald, but I did follow through on Cruz.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2015, 10:52:54 PM »

The Jeb bubble bursting created the Rubio bubble, and now this one is finally bursting.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: December 18, 2015, 11:24:23 PM »

The problem is that a Rubio win is looking more and more like a bank shot.  It is becoming clearer that he has no chance to win IA (with Cruz favored) and NH is looking more and more like a multi-candidate pile-up in the establishment lane (leaving Trump likely winner).

The only historical model for someone losing early states and yet winning nomination is Clinton 1992, but there are many reasons why that doesn't fit. The only other model for a win is the fictional West Wing Matt Santos 2006 win, by going into a brokered convention as one of three holding big blocks of delegates and eventually getting the establishment to rally behind you.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2015, 11:25:42 PM »

A piece just came out about his total lack of ground game in pretty much all of the early states. That might have had something to do with it.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2015, 11:26:18 PM »

The Jeb bubble bursting created the Rubio bubble, and now this one is finally bursting.

NO MORE BUBBLES! INVEST IN GOLD!

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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2015, 11:32:42 PM »

So is the baton going to be passed to Chris Christie now? Talk about great timing.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2015, 11:36:33 PM »

After a month and a half of a vaporware surge where he never got above 15% on the RCP average, people are finally realizing what I've been saying for a while: Rubio is a hollow shell of a national-candidate.

Heck, he's on virtually the same steep downward slope as Carson, now:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: December 18, 2015, 11:42:51 PM »

Only a matter of time before Trump overtakes Rubio for 2nd place (and then possibly Cruz later for 1st).
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2015, 12:18:49 AM »

The only historical model for someone losing early states and yet winning nomination is Clinton 1992, but there are many reasons why that doesn't fit. The only other model for a win is the fictional West Wing Matt Santos 2006 win, by going into a brokered convention as one of three holding big blocks of delegates and eventually getting the establishment to rally behind you.

True, but basically every Republican nomination contest in the modern era up until 2008 had a single, strong establishment frontrunner (who went on to win).  Since that isn't happening this time, there are few clear historical parallels no matter what happens.
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Cory
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2015, 12:37:20 AM »

So is the baton going to be passed to Chris Christie now? Talk about great timing.

My thoughts exactly.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2015, 01:50:49 AM »

Traders are finally catching up to Atlas reality. Forgive me Lief for not believing in the Donald, but I did follow through on Cruz.


They let Americans play?? I missed a chance to lose some money.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2015, 02:50:42 PM »

Rubio's now in third behind Trump.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2015, 04:15:59 PM »

PredictIt right now

Cruz 34%
Trump 28%
Rubio 27%
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2015, 04:29:09 PM »

I think the Rubio campaign publicly admitting that they won't win any early states might've hurt them a bit.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2015, 04:58:03 PM »

Traders are finally catching up to Atlas reality. Forgive me Lief for not believing in the Donald, but I did follow through on Cruz.


Cruz is not the frontrunner, but he's perhaps the favorite to win.

Most realistic 2016 ticket:

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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2015, 04:59:50 PM »

Cruz may have drawn Rubio blood over the illegals issue. Cruz is going to regret that.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2015, 05:09:38 PM »

Cruz may have drawn Rubio blood over the illegals issue. Cruz is going to regret that.

More likely everyone starts to understand that Rubio is a lazy candidate who is unable (or unwilling) to capitalize on the fact that he got lucky with Jeb's implosion.
There have been numerous article last week about how Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are pissed off with his unwillingness to campaign in their states.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2015, 09:26:23 PM »

More likely everyone starts to understand that Rubio is a lazy candidate who is unable (or unwilling) to capitalize on the fact that he got lucky with Jeb's implosion.
There have been numerous article last week about how Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are pissed off with his unwillingness to campaign in their states.

I don't think Rubio is a "lazy candidate" per se, I think he's playing for 2020 or 2024, not 2016. He's setting groundwork, nothing more.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2015, 09:44:26 PM »

More likely everyone starts to understand that Rubio is a lazy candidate who is unable (or unwilling) to capitalize on the fact that he got lucky with Jeb's implosion.
There have been numerous article last week about how Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are pissed off with his unwillingness to campaign in their states.

I don't think Rubio is a "lazy candidate" per se, I think he's playing for 2020 or 2024, not 2016. He's setting groundwork, nothing more.

Why would he when the party wants to hand him the nomination this year on a silver platter and Hillary is a remarkably beatable democratic candidate?
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2015, 09:57:03 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2015, 10:06:52 PM by Runeghost »

More likely everyone starts to understand that Rubio is a lazy candidate who is unable (or unwilling) to capitalize on the fact that he got lucky with Jeb's implosion.
There have been numerous article last week about how Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are pissed off with his unwillingness to campaign in their states.

I don't think Rubio is a "lazy candidate" per se, I think he's playing for 2020 or 2024, not 2016. He's setting groundwork, nothing more.

Why would he when the party wants to hand him the nomination this year on a silver platter and Hillary is a remarkably beatable democratic candidate?

I can think of a couple reasons why Rubio would follow Carson into gliding his candidacy down to a smooth landing. He's not ready to be President, or even run for President, and he knows it. He needs executive experience, badly. He needs experience running a huge campaign equally badly.

Perhaps he just doesn't want to take his current good rep and weak resume into the bloody knife fight that he sees the primary turning into, only to go up against the flawed but experienced and ruthless Clinton machine as the candidate of the most reprehensible GOP primary season in memory.

Rubio is young, and I find it entirely plausible that he'd decide bowing out gracefully would be better than risking destroying his career by participating in a bloody clown show that ends with the GOP losing to Hillary, their nemesis for decades. (I'm not certain I agree that it's the right call for him, or anyone, but I can see the logic behind it.)

Also, just to float an idea, bowing out before NH and decisively throwing his support behind Christie or Bush could do a lot to repair any party goodwill that may have been damaged during the campaign.
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