Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback?
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  Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback?
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Author Topic: Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback?  (Read 1735 times)
weixiaobao
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« on: December 19, 2015, 05:22:15 AM »

Is there enough time for Christie to make a comeback?  He doing well in New Hampshire and nationally, he had a tiny surge.

And what does it meant for the rest of the establishments since Kasich, Christie, Rubio, and Bush (to a much lesser extend Fiorina) all have their little core base in New Hampshire.  Enough so, that no one will drop out.

What is the chance that one of these 4 will win in New Hampshire?
In the second scenario, none of them drop out before New Hampshire.

Also if none of these 4 win in Iowa and New Hampshire, what will happen then?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2015, 05:34:22 AM »

It's possible that none of Bush/Christie/Kasich/Rubio drop out before New Hampshire, but that they don't all maintain their current standing there.  I don't think we've ever had more than five GOP candidates win more than 5% of the vote in NH, yet current polls show 7 or 8 candidates with 5% or more there.  I don't know that that's sustainable.

As primary day approaches, I'd imagine that there'll be at least some consolidation of the vote down to a smaller number of candidates, even if no one actually drops out.  So maybe, for example, Kasich's support disintegrates and it largely goes to Christie, or something like that.  Doesn't mean that would be sufficient for Christie to win though.
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Beezer
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2015, 05:37:50 AM »

What surge are we talking about? He's increased his poll #s from 2.5 to 3%. He's not gonna win anything because nobody in the national conversation cares about him anymore.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2015, 05:49:32 AM »

What surge are we talking about? He's increased his poll #s from 2.5 to 3%. He's not gonna win anything because nobody in the national conversation cares about him anymore.

Meh, I hate doing the legwork for you.  Why don't you take me in good faith that what I am saying is true.  Since I am entering datas constantly.  If you don't, at least, do some "google." 

But whatever, let used the low hanging fruit of 3%.

PPP had him at 5% recently, Rasmussen had him at 9%.

But more importantly, in New Hampshire (which keep Kasich some what relevant for you know maybe some deal across campaigns), Franklin Pierce had Christie at 10.8% tied for 2nd place via margin of error.

Go further back in New Hampshire polls, WBUR had him at 12% which is 2nd place.  Adrian Gray had him at 8% tied for 3rd via margin of error.  WMUR had him at 9% 3rd place.  PPP had him at 10%, statistically tied for 2nd place.
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weixiaobao
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2015, 05:51:55 AM »

What surge are we talking about? He's increased his poll #s from 2.5 to 3%. He's not gonna win anything because nobody in the national conversation cares about him anymore.

Lastly although all the conditions of 2012 and 2016 are different, national polls matter but so are Iowa and New Hampshire polls.  Santorum was super low in national polls, and he turn things around in Iowa in 1 weeks, which in turn improved his national pollings.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2015, 06:08:19 AM »

What surge are we talking about? He's increased his poll #s from 2.5 to 3%. He's not gonna win anything because nobody in the national conversation cares about him anymore.

In the average of post-debate polls, he's getting 4.8%, up from 2.9% of the RCP pre-debate average. Don't know what'll happen next, but he's growing nationally.
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Why
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2015, 07:20:45 AM »

Growing form an extremely low base, if he matches or overtakes Rubio then he needs to be strongly considered. Until then he is just another one who is not worth considering as a winner.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2015, 07:32:55 AM »

The center-right in the party need to decide on who to back whether it be Bush, Rubio, Christie or Kasich...
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Fuzzy Won't Cover Up Biden's Senility
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2015, 07:46:18 AM »

Of course Christie COULD "come back"; no votes have been cast yet.

Is it LIKELY that he, Chris Christie, would launch a "comeback".  That would mean that the current narrative of the race would be turned on its ear.  Besides, Christie has been an outlier since the race started.  Jeb would have a "comeback"; he was once the front runner.  Christie's improvement in the polls would have to be classified as something else.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2015, 08:17:12 AM »

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2015, 08:59:18 AM »

The center-right in the party need to decide on who to back whether it be Bush, Rubio, Christie or Kasich...

Yes, this is the truly interesting contest going into January. If one of these four (or maybe more realistically, Rubio or Christie) manages to do well in New Hampshire, the calculus changes...
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mencken
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2015, 09:43:34 AM »

Rubio is only doing well when compared to the rest of the establishment field. Right now he is at 12% nationally versus Christie's 3%. If Christie pulls off a strong second in New Hampshire, I do not think it is implausible to believe he would pick up a large share of Bush and Kasich's combined 6% and cut into Rubio's support a little, which would likely be enough to out him on competitive footing with Rubio in the establishment bracket. The problem for both Rubio and Christie is that the calendar after New Hampshire is very hostile; Christie (unlike Rubio) might at least be competitive in Vermont and Massachusetts.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2015, 09:50:49 AM »

There's little reason for anyone who at least registers support in the polls to drop out before a vote has been cast.
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2015, 09:54:57 AM »

YES

it`s still a long shot but if he doingv ery well in NH like 2nd or 3rd place everything is open for him

last debate helped him a lot

I suppose after IA Santorum Huckabee Pataki and Gilmor ewill drop out
will be interesting what happen with their %
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2015, 10:32:50 AM »

PPP's latest national poll (12/16 - 12/16) shows that Rubio's net favorability has dropped below Christie's among Republican primary voters:

+35 Carson (61/26/12)
+32 Cruz (59/27/14)
+24 Trump (58/34/8)
+19 Christie (49/30/21)
+15 Rubio (49/34/17)
 -14 Kasich (26/40/35)
 -15 Bush (34/49/18)

It'll be interesting to see whether this trend continues over the next several weeks.

Since late summer, a lot of people here (including me) and a lot of political journalists have expressed puzzlement about why Republican insiders have been reluctant to move from Jeb's failed campaign, or from remaining silent, to coalesce behind Rubio.

I still don't know exactly why this is so: Does he look too young? Are Republicans naturally reluctant to support a first-term Senator after ranting about how President Obama was NOT READY TO LEAD for eight years? Is it because Rubio's tenure in the Senate has been bland and unimpressive? Does an angry electorate demand a candidate who can more effectively project their rage? And how telling is his lack of organization in the early states? Are Team Jeb's rumors doing real damage, whether they're true or not?

All of that said, reality is gradually vindicating the instincts of those people who were cautious about Rubio. Only two candidates are in a position to benefit from this: Christie and Bush, who both have credible backgrounds, organized campaigns, and the right set of policy views. Of these two, Christie is a better campaigner and has a clear advantage insofar as he hasn't alienated a large chunk of primary voters in the singularly humiliating fashion that Bush has.
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wolfsblood07
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« Reply #15 on: December 19, 2015, 10:48:40 AM »
« Edited: December 19, 2015, 10:54:06 AM by wolfsblood07 »

I hope not.  Christie seems to be another neocon who wants an interventionist foreign policy and no fly zones everywhere.  He's another John McCain and Lindsey Graham   Every time i hear him talk to Hugh Hewitt he comes off as a know it all, smug, fact machine.  Plus, he hugged Obama that one time.  
To me he's a New Jersey mobster, who closes bridges to get at his political foes.
On the other hand, I would crawl over broken glass to vote for him if he were the nominee, because he would nominate conservative  judges.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2015, 12:14:53 PM »

There's time for Christie (or anyone else) to surge in New Hampshire. Because Christie now has momentum there, he seems more likely to continue than Bush or Kasich do to grow, but momentum can shift easily; Bush could reboot his TV ad campaign and make it more effective, Kasich could get a surprise big endorsement. Because those 3, Rubio and Cruz are all doing similar in NH polls, a slight change could boost any of them into 2nd place. Maybe even Fiorina.

New Hampshire will be affected by advertising (with Bush, Rubio and Cruz probably on the air much more than everyone else), the debate between Iowa and New Hampshire, the Iowa results and subsequent media coverage, the X factors of news events and candidate reactions to them plus candidate-generated news.

As far as Christie goes, you see how quickly he rehabilitated his favorables…

PPP's latest national poll (12/16 - 12/16) shows that Rubio's net favorability has dropped below Christie's among Republican primary voters:

+35 Carson (61/26/12)
+32 Cruz (59/27/14)
+24 Trump (58/34/8)
+19 Christie (49/30/21)
+15 Rubio (49/34/17)
 -14 Kasich (26/40/35)
 -15 Bush (34/49/18)

…but I think people are overestimating that as being a product of Christie's political talent while ignoring the fact the no one has been attacking Christie because he bore no threat. On the other hand, look at the damage suffered by Rubio (who previously had favorables higher than anyone but Carson). That's right after the debate where he was being hit on immigration. There is a wealth of things to inflict serious damage on Christie among conservatives and even moderates with a distaste for corrupt insiders. Now that Christie is a threat (to be the establishment candidate who performs best in an early state), I expect him to come under fire in a few weeks. And even if Christie wins New Hampshire, I still he is unlikely to get past Cruz.

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

I assume it'll be a big factor and deterrent to dropping out. They each want to be the last establishment candidate standing so if Cruz or Trump lose big, they can be the person the media is saying should have been the nominee.

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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2015, 02:37:10 PM »

I'd gladly endorse him. He's better than Rubio and Jeb, to be sure.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2015, 03:34:58 PM »

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

You also reminded me of how wrong everyone is who thinks Rubio will run for governor in 2018 if he doesn't win. It's one thing to get re-elected governor while you're running for president, another to get elected the first time.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2015, 03:41:22 PM »

What would Christie's strategy look like? Neither SC nor NV are particularly fertile grounds for him. On Super Tuesday, Massachusetts might be a good fit, but the rest of the states are either southern or are places like Vermont or Minnesota that wouldn't take kindly to Christie's super-urban demeanor.
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mencken
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2015, 03:44:41 PM »

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

You also reminded me of how wrong everyone is who thinks Rubio will run for governor in 2018 if he doesn't win. It's one thing to get re-elected governor while you're running for president, another to get elected the first time.

Rubio will be as relevant as Rick Santorum after he loses his home state's primary, regardless of which office he seeks next.

What would Christie's strategy look like? Neither SC nor NV are particularly fertile grounds for him. On Super Tuesday, Massachusetts might be a good fit, but the rest of the states are either southern or are places like Vermont or Minnesota that wouldn't take kindly to Christie's super-urban demeanor.

You really have to wonder what Republican officials expected to happen when they designed this year's primary system and schedule.

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RFayette
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2015, 03:47:34 PM »

What would Christie's strategy look like? Neither SC nor NV are particularly fertile grounds for him. On Super Tuesday, Massachusetts might be a good fit, but the rest of the states are either southern or are places like Vermont or Minnesota that wouldn't take kindly to Christie's super-urban demeanor.

Christie's hope has to be for Rubio to drop out and be seen as the best alternative to Cruz and Trump.  I agree the path for him is very narrow. 

Mencken is also right that Republican officials did a very poor job designing the schedule if their goal was to secure a moderate, Northern establishment nominee.  I'm gunning for Cruz at this point, so I'm glad they screwed up.
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Averroës Nix
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2015, 04:24:42 PM »

I imagine that Super Tuesday would be strictly damage control for Christie:

  • Focus on winning one or two of the more urban non-Northeastern states in addition to Massachusetts (Virginia, most likely).
  • Pull every conceivable string in the caucus states. (Granted, Romney's experience in 2012 doesn't bode well for this.)
  • Downplay expectations for his "underdog" candidacy elsewhere.
  • Hope that Cruz and Trump (or whoever else) are splitting their vote enough that both of them win states, neither has a clear advantage over the other, and no one is triggering WTA delegate allocation rules in the larger states.
  • Prepare to reverse the likely delegate deficit throughout the remaining March primaries, especially Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and Illinois (the former three of which are WTA).

I don't expect Jeb or Rubio to be in the race by Super Tuesday if neither are the leading non-Trump, non-Cruz candidate, so that will help in terms of dollars, organization, and support from party institutions.
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mencken
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« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2015, 04:48:43 PM »

I imagine that Super Tuesday would be strictly damage control for Christie:

  • Focus on winning one or two of the more urban non-Northeastern states in addition to Massachusetts (Virginia, most likely).
  • Pull every conceivable string in the caucus states. (Granted, Romney's experience in 2012 doesn't bode well for this.)
  • Downplay expectations for his "underdog" candidacy elsewhere.
  • Hope that Cruz and Trump (or whoever else) are splitting their vote enough that both of them win states, neither has a clear advantage over the other, and no one is triggering WTA delegate allocation rules in the larger states.
  • Prepare to reverse the likely delegate deficit throughout the remaining March primaries, especially Florida, Ohio, Arizona, and Illinois (the former three of which are WTA).

I don't expect Jeb or Rubio to be in the race by Super Tuesday if neither are the leading non-Trump, non-Cruz candidate, so that will help in terms of dollars, organization, and support from party institutions.

As I recall, many of the primaries are WTA by congressional district, so if Christie can do well in the urban centers of the SEC primaries (where there are significantly fewer GOP primary voters), his deficit in the delegate count will not be as severe as his likely popular vote performance would suggest. For example, Romney actually came out of the Alabama/Mississippi primaries as the delegate count winner despite coming in third in both states.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2015, 06:22:40 PM »

Even if he can't make enough of a comeback to win the nomination, he might be able to make enough of a comeback to set himself up for 2020.  For Christie and a few of the other candidates, I wonder how much the 2020 race will factor into their decision on when to drop out of this race.

I assume it'll be a big factor and deterrent to dropping out. They each want to be the last establishment candidate standing so if Cruz or Trump lose big, they can be the person the media is saying should have been the nominee.

I think that's right for Christie and Rubio.  I'm less clear on whether Bush and Kasich are interested in running again.


You really have to wonder what Republican officials expected to happen when they designed this year's primary system and schedule.


It isn't designed from the top down.  That is, yes, the RNC (in concert with the DNC) blessed IA/NH/NV/SC as the chosen four, but everything after that was left to individual state legislatures to decide.
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