General Polish politics thread

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I don't want to spam any longer in last elections topic so I decided to start the new topic about Polish politics.

Main reason for that:
http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/233309,Debate-on-Poland-in-European-Parliament-gets-green-light-

What do you think about such debates on EP sessions? This is kinda disgusting kind of political pressure on EU member state but I guess it will not have any real significance. Like, what PE can do after the debate?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So it started. Pumped by polls and media .Nowoczesna got new MP who earlier resigned from being member of Kukiz'15 parliamentary club. Currently Nowoczesna have 29 MP's.
Also member of city council of Rzeszów decided to leave Civic Platform and also join .Nowoczeszna.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The EU can do nothing beyond finger-wagging, although they may inadvertently help PiS. See Orban, Viktor (although I'm almost certain the PiS government will not be as ruthlessly effective as Fizdez's).

So is it pretty likely that Modern will become the new Civic Platform?

Also what will happen to Kukiz, seeing as their one pledge I know of (FPTP seats) was rejected in the refendum?

And finally, what will happen to the Left? I'm sure Miller has to be defenestrated at this , but what will happen to the various extraparliamentary left groupings (including Razem, who did surprisingly well)?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So is it pretty likely that Modern will become the new Civic Platform?

It depends, now Civic Platform is busy with internal issues, namely leader elections so they are less active as leading politicians now more often are visiting regional branches of the party than in media (although the have not disappeared). They have also a lot of problems with organisational stuff, they used to have more privileges and tools for political struggle as governing party.
But actually calendar may help them a little as now we have Christmas, New Year, Epiphany so a lot of non-working days (Sejm do not work, politics are not in the spotlight as Baby Jesus and a lot of Christmas food and presents are everywhere) and shortly after that in January there will be last phase of Civic Platform leader elections - media will probably say a lot about that event and both of candidates can use it in two ways simultaneously - for the internal-party needs to win elections and for the external, just to rebuild partially support for PO.

There are two candidates: one is Minister of Defence in both Tusk Cabinets and Kopacz Cabinet. Supported by Donald Tusk faction. Second one is Grzegorz Schetyna, former Minister of Internal Affairs in Kopacz Cabinet, Vice prime minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs in the First Tusk Cabinet, strong person inside the party, supported by many "barons" of PO, better known than Siemoniak as he is very long in Polish politics. Inside the Civic Platform he is arch-nemesis of Donald Tusk but formerly they were friends. There were moment that he was "wrote off" and his position in the party wasn't that good but probably nothing can break him and now probably he is realizing his revenge.

Also, we must remember that Civic Platform still is the biggest opposition party which was governing the state for the 8 years and they still are powerful, they have a lot of people on local level authorities, in voivodship Sejmiks, mayors/city presidents (including Mayor of Warsaw and Mayor of Łódź - officially the best Polish city according to me). Now .Modern have its 5 minutes but next elections will be in 2019 so 5 minutes couldn't be enough. .Modern still have no local structures, no support in NGOs, institutions (PO now will also loose a lot of state institutions as PiS will root them out fast) and they still need to build their "soft support base". So I wouldn't be so hasty and we shouldn't  create second Civic Platform as the first one is still alive. Without hand and leg but that is "just a flesh wound". Although I guess that in current situation some people would seek "new Civic Platform" as the old one have a lot of scandals behind them and also lost elections - so they lost their "katechonic" potential. Also probably people from .Modern would see themselves as  "new, better PO". But as for now, it is too early to judge if they will be successful in succeeding PO.

Also what will happen to Kukiz, seeing as their one pledge I know of (FPTP seats) was rejected in the refendum?

I guess that sooner or later his parliamentary club will collapse as there are too many different political circles inside it. As for now Kukiz (as a person) actually pretty often just go with the flow and position himself according to current issues and his views. So basically does his job as a MP, but with no special effects. Also not-at-all-fun-fact: Nationalists, conlibs and some members of parliament from different parties created National Democratic Parliamentary Club in the anniversary of assassination of the first president of Poland Gabriel Narutowicz. He was killed by the supporter of National Democracy and by those circles his murderer is considered as some kind of martyr and Narutowicz as a traitor etc. Cute, huh?

And finally, what will happen to the Left? I'm sure Miller has to be defenestrated at this , but what will happen to the various extraparliamentary left groupings (including Razem, who did surprisingly well)?

What to say?
There will be leader elections in the SLD, Miller will not participate in them. Probably they will come back to the Sejm in 2019, with small representation as they have strong, devoted electorate base - although some part of it may die until the next elections. As for now situation similar to the PO situation, but there are more candidates for the leader function - 10, among which 4 are "big fishes". Inside the party most of the members were not eager to continue cooperation with Palikot, so United Left is not only dead (as elections ended) but there are almost no chances that it will be revived.
As for the Your Movement Janusz Palikot had disappeared somewhere, I must say that actually I didn't notice that. Barbara Nowacka (co-leader of Your Movement) who was a candidate for prime minister of United Left coalition is somehow present in the media but party is almost virtual, they have almost no structures and probably will survive just to receive money from government. Greens are just Greens, they exist but no one knows what for. Minors are as non-relevant as they were before elections, maybe with time they will somehow use their money from governmental subsidies to expand their political influences but I doubt it. As fot the Razem they as for now lost the attention of the media but they exists, they are active (although not in mainstream, they are currently kinda outside the whole Tribunal conflict, although they criticize PiS they also criticize also some parts of system and legacy of post-communist Poland) and now must wisely spent subsidies money. They will be okay, but as for now I can't tell what will be their future. As for now they had good enough start to think seriously about their future activity.  

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Eh, I wish to live in the second Hungary as German media thinks

[DavidB.]

I'd rather have the media stop spewing nonsense about PiS and Poland. It is becoming highly annoying

At least the Polish media will soon stop doing so

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

At least the Polish media will soon stop doing so

I don't get it but I guess it is connected with all that "DEY R KILLING FREEDOM OF SPEECH IN POLEN" nonsense. Today, as Polish media care very much about what foreign media writes/talks/publish about Poland, we had article from El Pais and some article from SPIEGEL online in similar theme. First was rather meh, but in the second one author compared Poland to Putin Russia ._. And that wasn't the biggest bullsh**t.

[DavidB.]

It was a joke; I, of course, don't believe that nonsense.

[Cubby]

The 2005-2007 Law & Justice term was one of the worst European governments I've ever been lived through. The only one worse I can think of is Fidesz/Orban in Hungary (how they haven't been kicked out of the EU I'll never understand). Worse even than Berlusconi, and that's hard to do.

PiS used to demand funds from the EU not proportionate to their population but to what the population would have been had Germany not invaded in 1939. That nasty twin PM used to say the most awful things, he was like a Polish Al Sharpton. I bet the new government won't bash Germany like he did, since after the travesty in the Ukraine the last 2 years, Poland needs the EU more than ever.

Civic Platform was a great government, the left seems to be non-existent in Poland so PO is the best I could hope for.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

True to form, PiS have only damaged themselves. Most governments do eventually replace the previous cronies with their own hand-picked cronies, but it normally is wise to do the dirty deed in a more subtle way than "BANG YOU'RE ALL FIRED, HERE'S MY MATE HE  HAS YOUR JOB NOW".

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Civic Platform was a great government, the left seems to be non-existent in Poland so PO is the best I could hope for.

Ehh, I wish to everything to be so simple. I will answer to all of your doubts after Thursday as now I need to "study hard" to the exam. And CrabCake I can agree with you but you must remember that PiS electorate is currently bloodthirsty and a lot of PiS supporters are very happy with all those purges. In my opinion such approach wasn't really effect of stupidity, just miscalculation and a little bit too much self-confidence. I will also write more about that in few days if you want : )

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I suppose we will be able to see the cleavage betwen the pure PiS fans (who genuinely want a radical change in the government) and however many PiS voters simply swung for the freebies promoted by the government. Such arcame arguments typically inflame the activist portion of the population (either for or against), while the decent majority are merely annoyed that political drama has lasted longer than the election itself.f

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So it appears that all that media turmoil will ease down soon, as German authorities tries to play "good policeman" role. Unofficially (according to the most of leading Polish daily newspapers) tomorrow special European Commission session  they will do nothing with all that situation and I guess until February we will forget about this. I guess it was all about something between German and Polish authorities which we yet don't know, and probably never know. Some people says it is about NATO bases in Poland, but these are only speculations/plausible conspiracies.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Very Important News: Democratic Left Alliance have a new leader!!!!!

[aross]

Very Important News: Democratic Left Alliance have a new leader!!!!!

Could you tell us a bit about this race? I looked online a few days ago, but there was very little information that wasn't in Polish. I gather the favourite was a stooge of Miller's?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Actually that is not important information, as SLD is no longer important.

Włodzimierz Czarzasty (pullovers in all colour variants) leadership will not bring any radical changes. Of course he started his political career in PZPR, during SLD era in the 90s and early 00s he was in the boards of Polish Radio and in the boards of the National Broadcasting Council (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krajowa_Rada_Radiofonii_i_Telewizji). He was also considered to have some role in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rywin_affair as by some Czarzasty was considered to be part of so called "group in power". But this is the past, very shady. Basically post-1989 establishment in the nutshell.
What is interesting he never was a MP or even member of any elected body on local level but yet he is very often guest in TV and radio political programs. What is the source of his power? Probably personal contacts
as he is chairmen of the boards of "Ordynacka" Association which associate former members of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Students%27_Association including most important members of post-communist establishment but also other politicians and people connected with media like former president Aleksander Kwaśniewski and three out of four SLD former prime ministers. Association is considered as rather influential - mainly because of its influential members. Czarzasty was also leader of SLD in Mazowsze region. He can be considered as kind of party "baron"/"magnate". He was also an architect of spectacular SLD failure during presidential elections - candidature of Magdalena Ogórek (2,38% of votes).

As for the internal issues there were no breakups so I guess he somehow managed to give some "second-place prizes" to his opponents in race to leadership, especially those most influential ones - Jerzy Wenderlich and Krzysztof Gawkowski (representative of younger generation, sleazy person) and ease out any tensions.
As for the external issues Czarzasty is opponent of United Left idea and he will probably lead SLD to the next elections under SLD banner, not in the coalition like in 2015.
As for the race itself it wasn't interesting. There was second term voting but actually fate of SLD would be the same with any other significant candidate (there were 10 in general but only 3 of them were serious candidatures).

[swl]

So the Polish constitutional court rejected the controversial reform of... the constitutional court.
No idea of what happens next.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I wait when someone will sue Constitutional Tribunal for rejecting reform of Constitutional Tribunal and later Constitutional Tribunal will check if suing Constitutional Tribunal for rejecting reform of Constitutional Tribunal is compatible with constitution.