Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?
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  Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?
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Question: Only 6 weeks left!
#1
Cruz
 
#2
Trump
 
#3
Rubio
 
#4
Carson
 
#5
Other (Including Jeb!)
 
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Author Topic: Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?  (Read 4980 times)
The Mikado
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« on: December 20, 2015, 03:08:19 PM »

I did this three weeks ago and Cruz decisively won. Let's see where we are now. Election's right around the corner, people!

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Crumpets
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2015, 03:34:11 PM »

At this point, I say Cruz, but I'm less confident of that assertion than I was when he was in second. There's a good chance he's peaking too soon.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2015, 03:36:37 PM »

Tough to see Cruz losing.  He took the lead and then got all the key endorsements at once, so it should be locked down now.  Only danger is that due to the late date of the caucuses there may be Cruz fatigue by the time they roll around.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2015, 03:44:19 PM »

Cruz clearly has the best chance.
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yankeesfan
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2015, 03:58:07 PM »

Cruz has it wrapped up.  He's looking to SC and the South now while his endorsements are campaigning for him in IA.
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RI
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« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2015, 04:42:53 PM »

I think the only possible choices are Cruz, Trump, and Huckabee (check his favorables in IA). I don't see anything in particular taking Cruz down, but him holding his lead for the next month-plus also seems unlikely to me.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2015, 04:46:28 PM »

Probably Trump. Trump is the Romney of this cycle, Cruz is the flavor of the month. The merry go round will have moved on from Cruz at that point, but whether whoever is next in line wins IA or Trump pulls it off is unclear at this point. Carson could also come back again, remember last time it was Perry-Cain-Gingrich-Santorum-Gingrich-Santorum.
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2015, 04:49:37 PM »

I'll predict Cruz wins narrowly over Trump by having a better ground game.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2015, 04:50:01 PM »

Cruz may be peaking too early, but he's still the favorite here I think.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2015, 04:59:04 PM »

Probably Trump. Trump is the Romney of this cycle, Cruz is the flavor of the month. The merry go round will have moved on from Cruz at that point, but whether whoever is next in line wins IA or Trump pulls it off is unclear at this point. Carson could also come back again, remember last time it was Perry-Cain-Gingrich-Santorum-Gingrich-Santorum.

Actually, I don't think Santorum took a national lead until after Gingrich's 2nd surge came crashing down but someone less lazy can check. But also, Gingrich was destroyed (twice) by negative advertising, in late 2011 by Paul and Romney (who took the lead in Iowa with a week to go) and late January 2012 by Romney. As I've pointed out for a while, the difference between Cruz and Santorum/Huckabee/ Gingrich is his fundraising is stronger than anyone's except Bush. So I think it'd be harder for say Rubio to take him down than it was for Romney to derail Gingrich. Maybe Trump will launch attack ads against Cruz, but they appear to have negotiated a ceasefire and it's not clear Trump will spend much money. (There's also less to attack Cruz on than there was for Gingrich.) So I agree with the consensus here that Cruz will hold his lead.
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Blair
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« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2015, 05:02:28 PM »

Well as everyone has been saying, it was and still is Cruz. Him climbing to the top doesn't mean he's likely to fall unless Rubio surges
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2015, 05:10:05 PM »

Chance of winning IA:

Cruz: 27%
Trump: 25%
Rubio: 15%
Carson: 15%
Fiorina: 5%
Paul: 5%
Yeb: 4%
Field: 4%

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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2015, 05:13:00 PM »

Cruz has the money and the infrastructure to win the caucus decisively.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2015, 06:28:18 PM »

Probably Trump. Trump is the Romney of this cycle, Cruz is the flavor of the month. The merry go round will have moved on from Cruz at that point, but whether whoever is next in line wins IA or Trump pulls it off is unclear at this point. Carson could also come back again, remember last time it was Perry-Cain-Gingrich-Santorum-Gingrich-Santorum.

Actually, I don't think Santorum took a national lead until after Gingrich's 2nd surge came crashing down but someone less lazy can check.

Right, Santorum didn't lead national polls until he won CO/MN/MO.  In fact, I don't think he ever led Iowa polls, right up until caucus day he was surging but never took the lead (until the votes came in, and even then...).
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mencken
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« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2015, 06:35:18 PM »

I will trust Selzer and say Cruz by a good margin.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2015, 06:36:13 PM »

Cruz by very possibly 15+
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Slow Learner
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2015, 06:37:13 PM »

I'll stick with Trump edging out Teaper Ted.
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Pyro
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2015, 07:01:30 PM »

Cruz may be peaking too early, but he's still the favorite here I think.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2015, 07:10:03 PM »

Cruz, by 6 or so.
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MK
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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2015, 12:53:37 AM »

I'll predict Cruz wins narrowly over Trump by having a better ground game.

This.

I may add I could see something like a very very close count with Cruz finally winning it.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2015, 01:03:09 AM »

At this point, I say Cruz, but I'm less confident of that assertion than I was when he was in second. There's a good chance he's peaking too soon.
I whole heartily agree. Especially considering in the last several elections, the winner was well behind the front runner. Cruz just hit 40% in the latest iowa poll. He may have hit the accelerator about 4 weeks early. He might be out of gas and the winner may end up being unexpected (i.e. Carson most likely in this scenario...) I still say that he's the favorite though
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2015, 01:28:16 AM »
« Edited: December 21, 2015, 01:49:20 AM by ProudModerate2 »

Cruz, by about 1/2 a horse length.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2015, 01:45:01 AM »

I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2015, 02:24:35 AM »

I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.

As a rule of thumb, that seems about right to me. But in this particular case, the bump should be big regardless of how obvious the win is. Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge. Cruz will see a doubled surge: from boosted media coverage as a result of his defeat of Trump, and quite likely in supporters, as some of Trump's fans abandon him for a stronger candidate. (And that's assuming Trump fans even get around to voting in the primaries in the first place....)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2015, 02:29:15 AM »

I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.

As a rule of thumb, that seems about right to me. But in this particular case, the bump should be big regardless of how obvious the win is. Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge. Cruz will see a doubled surge: from boosted media coverage as a result of his defeat of Trump, and quite likely in supporters, as some of Trump's fans abandon him for a stronger candidate. (And that's assuming Trump fans even get around to voting in the primaries in the first place....)

You may be right, though I think however big such a bump ends up being, it would be even bigger if Trump had Howard Dean-esque polling leads in Iowa, and then Cruz surged into the lead in the last week or two John Kerry style.  The media would treat that as a bigger deal than Cruz taking the lead two months in advance of caucus day and holding onto that lead and winning.

But that's really hard to calibrate.  I wouldn't purposely hold back at this stage, just to keep the expectations low.
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