Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?
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  Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?
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Question: Only 6 weeks left!
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Author Topic: Six weeks to Iowa: Who wins it?  (Read 4984 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #25 on: December 21, 2015, 02:46:17 AM »

I voted for Trump last time around but I'm voting for Cruz this time.

It sounds like his ground game is going to run circles around Trump's there. I am greatly concerned.
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MK
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« Reply #26 on: December 21, 2015, 04:39:53 AM »

I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.

As a rule of thumb, that seems about right to me. But in this particular case, the bump should be big regardless of how obvious the win is. Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge. Cruz will see a doubled surge: from boosted media coverage as a result of his defeat of Trump, and quite likely in supporters, as some of Trump's fans abandon him for a stronger candidate. (And that's assuming Trump fans even get around to voting in the primaries in the first place....)

You may be right, though I think however big such a bump ends up being, it would be even bigger if Trump had Howard Dean-esque polling leads in Iowa, and then Cruz surged into the lead in the last week or two John Kerry style.  The media would treat that as a bigger deal than Cruz taking the lead two months in advance of caucus day and holding onto that lead and winning.

But that's really hard to calibrate.  I wouldn't purposely hold back at this stage, just to keep the expectations low.



100%  CRUZ is winning this.   I think this actually may be the end of Trump and it has more to do that if his supporters finding out you spent all this time talking but not actually putting to together a GOTV effort it looks as if you are trolling the process. 

Honestly Trump cant afford to lose IA if he does its much over.
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defe07
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« Reply #27 on: December 21, 2015, 01:42:54 PM »

I see Cruz winning the gold but the main question would be: who would get the silver and bronze? What if Trump continues to drop in Iowa and decides to go full focus on winning NH big?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #28 on: December 21, 2015, 01:45:50 PM »

Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge.

Trump losing one state doesn't suddenly make him a "loser".
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #29 on: December 21, 2015, 02:01:59 PM »

I don't know if there's really such a thing as "peaking too early" with respect to your actual chances of winning the caucuses.  There may be if your nearest opponents are going to hit you with negative ads, but that doesn't seem to be happening here (at least not yet).  So not sure this will really qualify as "peaking too early".  Being ahead in the Iowa polls at this stage is presumably better than being behind in terms of your likelihood of winning the caucuses.

But the second consideration is the expectations setting, and its impact on the momentum that an Iowa win will generate.  On that dimension, I think "peaking too early" could be a worry.  If you take the lead early enough that you become the expected winner, then you risk not getting nearly the same polling bounce from the victory that you would if the victory was unexpected.

As a rule of thumb, that seems about right to me. But in this particular case, the bump should be big regardless of how obvious the win is. Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge. Cruz will see a doubled surge: from boosted media coverage as a result of his defeat of Trump, and quite likely in supporters, as some of Trump's fans abandon him for a stronger candidate. (And that's assuming Trump fans even get around to voting in the primaries in the first place....)

You may be right, though I think however big such a bump ends up being, it would be even bigger if Trump had Howard Dean-esque polling leads in Iowa, and then Cruz surged into the lead in the last week or two John Kerry style.  The media would treat that as a bigger deal than Cruz taking the lead two months in advance of caucus day and holding onto that lead and winning.

But that's really hard to calibrate.  I wouldn't purposely hold back at this stage, just to keep the expectations low.

But maybe Cruz is instead getting a gradual polling bump nationally and in later states. So polls function like tiny primaries and his taking the lead in Iowa, fuels more media coverage not just about his success in the poll but more generally with the angle that he's a serious contender which boosts his numbers. For instance, we are now seeing him pulling away from Rubio nationally and in South Carolina. Whether that's driven by the same things driving his Iowa surge, or driven by his Iowa surge or some combo of them I don't know. If Cruz wins Iowa without surprise, maybe it's ultimately just a more gradual road to the same place he would have been had it been a surprise.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #30 on: December 21, 2015, 02:09:25 PM »

Cruz needs SC. If Trump wins SC, the nomination is his.
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defe07
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« Reply #31 on: December 21, 2015, 02:19:30 PM »

Cruz needs SC. If Trump wins SC, the nomination is his.

Agreed to a point. Somehow, if we play geography musical chairs, the ones who should win SC would be Rubio, Jeb or Cruz. And this makes sense with Graham suspending his campaign. I think he'll start pushing for either Rubio or Jeb, since they're more in line with his military points of view. I could be all wet and Trump could end up dominating SC but, if geography were to apply here, Cruz, Rubio or Jeb should win SC (I'm leaning towards Cruz or Rubio). Smiley
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #32 on: December 21, 2015, 09:38:42 PM »

Because even if it's obvious to everyone weeks away, Cruz winning Iowa will turn Trump from a bragging prognosticator into a proven loser, the impact of which will be huge.

Trump losing one state doesn't suddenly make him a "loser".

What would you prefer to call him instead? "Vanquished"?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: December 21, 2015, 09:43:50 PM »

Rafael Eduardo "Ted" Cruz.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #34 on: December 21, 2015, 10:16:38 PM »

I think Cruz can't really get that much higher than the 35-40 he has now considering some of the groups Cruz alienates. I think he will tail off as a result but he'll probably win due to his strong evangelical and tea party hold. I also doubt Trump would risk attacking him because he knows a strong second would still have him positioned well for New Hampshire and South Carolina.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #35 on: December 21, 2015, 10:45:13 PM »

What outcome would have the least effect momentumwise and effectively reset the race?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #36 on: December 21, 2015, 10:49:25 PM »

Cruz will probably got like 40% of the vote that night...
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Crumpets
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« Reply #37 on: December 22, 2015, 03:03:43 AM »

What outcome would have the least effect momentumwise and effectively reset the race?

Along these lines, it will be interesting to see what happens if Cruz is predicted to win Iowa by a mile, but ends up winning in a squeaker against Trump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #38 on: December 22, 2015, 04:30:12 AM »

Cruz: 31%
Trump: 19%
Carson: 16%
Rubio: 10%
Bush: 7%
Christie:6%
Fiorina: 5%
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #39 on: December 22, 2015, 08:47:33 AM »

Cruz: 31%
Trump: 19%
Carson: 16%
Rubio: 10%
Bush: 7%
Christie:6%
Fiorina: 5%

There's no way that The Donald loses that much. I think he'll win by one or two points.

I agree ... I don't think Trump would lose by that much.
My thought is Cruz would win by one-to-five points (if he does), over Trump.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #40 on: December 22, 2015, 02:30:39 PM »

Cruz: 31%
Trump: 19%
Carson: 16%
Rubio: 10%
Bush: 7%
Christie:6%
Fiorina: 5%

There's no way that The Donald loses that much. I think he'll win by one or two points.

I agree ... I don't think Trump would lose by that much.
My thought is Cruz would win by one-to-five points (if he does), over Trump.


That may be. I might be wrong about it, but I think that Trump will underperform his poll numbers at all; not only in Iowa. My theory is, and I read this a couple of times, that not all of his supporters will actually show up at the polls.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #41 on: December 22, 2015, 02:41:03 PM »

What's better for Cruz?
- to win narrowly over Trump with Carson in 3rd (therefore denying Rubio the 'bronze')
- to win big over Trump with Rubio in 3rd and Carson in 4th or less

On one hand if Carson is in 3rd he might hold on until SC, but on the other hand if Rubio doesn't get 3rd he has nothing to brag about to help consolidate in NH. 
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #42 on: December 22, 2015, 03:18:10 PM »

Tough to see Cruz losing.  He took the lead and then got all the key endorsements at once, so it should be locked down now.  Only danger is that due to the late date of the caucuses there may be Cruz fatigue by the time they roll around.
Newt Gingrich?
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mencken
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« Reply #43 on: December 22, 2015, 03:22:38 PM »

What's better for Cruz?
- to win narrowly over Trump with Carson in 3rd (therefore denying Rubio the 'bronze')
- to win big over Trump with Rubio in 3rd and Carson in 4th or less

On one hand if Carson is in 3rd he might hold on until SC, but on the other hand if Rubio doesn't get 3rd he has nothing to brag about to help consolidate in NH. 

Rubio is a paper tiger trying to do with Nevada what Giuliani tried in Florida. Cruz needs a consolidated conservative vote to win, and winning Iowa big will earn him a large share of both Carson's and Trump's voters.
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