How much money does it take to flip the safest house seats?

[buddy36]

How much money would it take for a house seat to change party hands even the safest house seats?

[Flake]

It really depends district per district, but why are you making threads like these?

[Mr.Phips]

Infinity in most cases.

[Bismarck]

In the safest districts you have to have a scandal. That's the only way.

[RI]

In the safest districts you have to have a scandal. That's the only way.

For enough money, those can be arranged.

[ElectionsGuy]

It doesn't take money, it takes a really, really terrible candidate and other outside circumstances like turnout, natural disasters, etc. Joseph Cao vs Wiliam Jefferson in 2008 being the only example I can think of.

[buddy36]

It really depends district per district, but why are you making threads like these?

Because these are interesting questions that I was wondering

[andrew_c]

Money can't flip the safest seats.  The Democratic candidate in a 90% D district would win even if they kicked a dog.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It was something the Republicans spent a lot of money trying to answer in the 1980's, pooring millions into districts they had held the last time they were a majority, but of course times had changed, meanwhile cheap rural districts that voted Reagan >60% were going unchallenged.

[The Mikado]

A Democrat isn't winning TX-19 (Neugebauer's district) with its R+26 status even if they outspent the GOP 10-1 in it and even though it's an open seat. Republicans aren't taking down Charlie Rangel in NY-13 even if they outspent him 10-1 despite Rangel being incredibly scandal-prone because the district is D+41.

You don't flip the safest house seats. Nowadays, past about R+10 or D+10, it's almost a waste to try, because even if a deeply scandal-ridden incumbent goes down, you'll lose that seat two years later.

[Torie]

How much money would it take for a house seat to change party hands even the safest house seats?

An infinite amount if it involves a competent incumbent.

[henster]

I think it would probably have to be a billionaire who is willing to spend like $20 million he'd have to outspend the incumbent by like 10-1. The incumbent has to someone who is a backbencher and invisible to their constituents.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think it would probably have to be a billionaire who is willing to spend like $20 million he'd have to outspend the incumbent by like 10-1. The incumbent has to someone who is a backbencher and invisible to their constituents.

The incumbent has to be scandal-prone in order for this to work. Targeting a random back-bencher probably won't work in a hyper-partisan seat because most people still just vote for their party reflexively.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There are a lot of very rich Republicans in Carolyn Maloney's seat. Yet, since she took down Bill Green, no one has given her serious competition at all. Not even in 1994, its over. That ship has sailed.

You need redistricting reform, public financing of campaigns and maybe top two primaries. Then you might see some interesting things happen. But Harlem isn't electing a Republican and the suburbs of Birmingham aren't electing a Democrat. The last time the former has had a Republican was the 1950's and that was in portions. The last time the latter had a Democrat was 1990, but that was before the changes in enforcement of the VRA removed all the black voters from AL-06.

[mds32]

A Democrat isn't winning TX-19 (Neugebauer's district) with its R+26 status even if they outspent the GOP 10-1 in it and even though it's an open seat. Republicans aren't taking down Charlie Rangel in NY-13 even if they outspent him 10-1 despite Rangel being incredibly scandal-prone because the district is D+41.

You don't flip the safest house seats. Nowadays, past about R+10 or D+10, it's almost a waste to try, because even if a deeply scandal-ridden incumbent goes down, you'll lose that seat two years later.

And it is only rare circumstances where R+10 or the D+10 range is truly in play.

The only D+5 seat the Republicans hold is IL-10 at D+8
The only R+5 seats the Democrats hold are FL-02 and MN-07

[Maxwell]

It doesn't take money, it takes a really, really terrible candidate and other outside circumstances like turnout, natural disasters, etc. Joseph Cao vs Wiliam Jefferson in 2008 being the only example I can think of.

Michael Patrick Flanagan v. Dan Rostenkowski is another one, which was a Republican wave + Rostenkowski being guilty of mail fraud.

[Kingpoleon]

Me as the Republican candidate, $1.5 million, and corruption charges, including a convicted bribe of $500-$800, with other charged bribes totaling $25,000.

tl;dr: God

[VPH]

Depends on the seat and the candidate! Scott Kleeb finished 10 points behind in NE-3, one of the country's reddest districts. A lot of that was because of his incredible strength as a candidate.

[Mike Thick]

In the safest districts, you can't flip no matter how much money you spend. In NY-15, most of the people have made up their mind to vote Democratic no matter what their TV tells them. Plus, after you pass a certain dollar amount the scenario kind of becomes arbitrary because it's so unrealistic.

[Young Conservative]

Money can't flip the safest seats.  The Democratic candidate in a 90% D district would win even if they kicked a dog.

True. Most voters stop paying attention in districts that polarized. Mine is extremely polarized and there is nothing anyone could do to change us from voting for the same man until he retires. And even then it will be a man of the same party.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

It's impossible.  If people don't like a candidate, then no amount of money in the world will change that.

[The Arizonan]

The amount of money depends on how partisan the seat is and other factors.

If the incumbent was somehow Bill Cosby, then it shouldn't take too much money.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Ask Gwen Graham in 2014. It takes a highly strong candidate, a garbage opponent, and tons of money.

No amount of money can do it alone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here's how to lose a State Assembly election as the Democratic nominee in Oakland.

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