When will Labour make a come back?

[You kip if you want to...]

Okay, so it's pretty clear now that it's basically impossible for Labour to win the next UK election and the Tories will probably win a pretty sizable majority. The defeat of Labour (%PV wise anyway) will be bigger than in '83 I think. When will Labour make a come back? WILL they make a comeback?

I'd guess 2018-2020 at the very earliest...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's impossible to tell at this stage - which is usually the case. Interestingly there tends to be no relation to the "success" of the previous government of the party in question; the greatest Liberal government was also the last, pointing to real achievements* from the various Baldwin governments is rather hard and yet the Baldwin-led Tories record at coming back from defeat speaks for itself, after the Attlee government lost office in 1951 Labour didn't win another General Election until 1964, and Labour was back in power less than four years after the defeat of the 1964-70 Wilson government - which was generally regarded (on both the left and the right) as an abject failure until the early '90's or so.

It depends on a range of things that we don't know yet - to name but a few, the result of the 2010 election, the policies and popularity of the new government, the economic situation, the reaction of Labour to the defeat (both in terms of the new leadership and internal issues - when Labour loses an election there's usually a civil war or instability shortly afterwards). We don't know the answer to any of these questions yet** and until we do it's impossible to answer your question with any degree of accuracy.

*You still sometimes see them getting the credit for increased subsidies for council house construction, but the relevant legislation (the "Wheatley Act" and the "Greenwood Act") were passed by the MacDonald (Labour minority, not National) governments.

**Yes, it's possible to guess. But that's all. Admittedly when such questions are answered guessing answers half the question, confirmation bias the rest.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Depends how much dirty laundry remains to be aired, and most importantly, if the young MPs and young turks of the party still see the party as a mechanism to power in a few years time.

[AMOLAK MANN]

i would imagine the electorate will be generous and grant the Tories victories in May/June of 2010,2014 and 2018 with Labour looking to dent them a majority or win outright around 202/23 at the earliest

[You kip if you want to...]

i would imagine the electorate will be generous and grant the Tories victories in May/June of 2010,2014 and 2018 with Labour looking to dent them a majority or win outright around 202/23 at the earliest

So basically 1997-2010 with the tables turned?

[afleitch]

i would imagine the electorate will be generous and grant the Tories victories in May/June of 2010,2014 and 2018 with Labour looking to dent them a majority or win outright around 202/23 at the earliest

So basically 1997-2010 with the tables turned?

Possibly. I think the voters will give the Tories goodwill and they will need it. When Cameron gets in the 'painful medicine' kicks in immediately, in terms of public spending cuts with an emergency budget. Tories perhaps take a dip with the defense that they are having to do this because of Labour mismanagement etc but the totally unrelated economic bounce back in line with this in 2011 results in 3 or 4 solid years of high growth which equals a second term. If Labour have been like ferrets in a sack for a few years it could increase or at least maintain the Tories majority.

[AMOLAK MANN]

yes something like 1997-2010 and what afleitch said.It's been a while since a party came to office and then lost the next election (1970-1974) which suggests the electorate are willing to give benefit of the doubt.

I wonder if the swing from the 1997 result to the expected clear Tory victory in 2010 will give Labour hope in terms of volatility amongst the voters.After 1945 the UK had to wait 52 yeas before an election with over 100 seats changing hands and it seems we will 13 years between 2 such elections.

The Tory plans to cut the number of Commons seats may slow Labour's return to power down too

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tory plans to cut the number of Commons seats may slow Labour's return to power down too

That would only be the guess if they took a leaf out of Sarkozy's book and played at gerrymandering. Simply reducing the number of constituencies would just increase volatility and (as a percentage of seats) electoral turnover. Just as Labour supporters are wrong to assume that AV would always help them, Tories are wrong to assume that cutting the size of Parliament will be to their advantage all the time. As far as vote percentages go, LibDems are actually wrong to assume the same about STV - they'd win more seats though, even if their vote seeped sharply away in places, so it's not quite such an irrational hope.

[mileslunn]

I would guess 12 years, but a lot depends on many factors.  For starters, although a Tory majority seems very likely, if the Liberal Democrats perform well in the election, we could see a minority.

A lot depends on how the Tories do.  If they do a good job it could be longer, but if they do a lousy job it could be sooner.

If the centre-left (Labour Party and Liberal Democrats merge, thats assuming their results are very close) it could be sooner as well as if David Cameron turns hard to the right that could create a polarized electorate since although around 40% of Brits would like to return to the Thatcher Era, there are many who despise her policies, thus creating a polarized environment.

By contrast, the Labour Party could fall into disarray as there is a strong divide between the centrist elements (New Labour) and the more left wing elements (old Labour).  Up until now Old Labour has gone along with the more centrist policies since they have resulted in winning elections, but that could change once they lose.  The centrist elements will argue that it is the only way to win, while the left will argue the party needs to return to its leftist roots.  Off course, Old Labour policies will only ensure it loses as Britain is far less unionized than 30 years ago and the hard left is considerably weaker than it once was, so their policies would not have the appeal they did in the 60s and 70s. 

[Lincoln Republican]

If Labour picks another Michael Foote, forget it.

If they pick another Tony Blair, they will make a comeback.

[Rural Radical]

If Labour picks another Michael Foote, forget it.

If they pick another Tony Blair, they will make a comeback.

I dont believe this another Michael Foot.

[Rural Radical]

I would guess 12 years, but a lot depends on many factors.  For starters, although a Tory majority seems very likely, if the Liberal Democrats perform well in the election, we could see a minority.

A lot depends on how the Tories do.  If they do a good job it could be longer, but if they do a lousy job it could be sooner.

If the centre-left (Labour Party and Liberal Democrats merge, thats assuming their results are very close) it could be sooner as well as if David Cameron turns hard to the right that could create a polarized electorate since although around 40% of Brits would like to return to the Thatcher Era, there are many who despise her policies, thus creating a polarized environment.

By contrast, the Labour Party could fall into disarray as there is a strong divide between the centrist elements (New Labour) and the more left wing elements (old Labour).  Up until now Old Labour has gone along with the more centrist policies since they have resulted in winning elections, but that could change once they lose.  The centrist elements will argue that it is the only way to win, while the left will argue the party needs to return to its leftist roots.  Off course, Old Labour policies will only ensure it loses as Britain is far less unionized than 30 years ago and the hard left is considerably weaker than it once was, so their policies would not have the appeal they did in the 60s and 70s. 

Dont assume that all of the "Old Labour" wing are Left Wing. People like Roy Hattersley are "Old Labour" though he is hardly Left Wing.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd say not until around 2015.

[Rural Radical]

I'd say not until around 2015.

The comeback would start about 6 months after a Tory victory.

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd say not until around 2015.

The comeback would start about 6 months after a Tory victory.

In the sense that people are willing to vote for Labour again... I doubt it. Although, 6 months of the Tories will be bad enough...

[Silent Hunter]

I'd say not until around 2015.

The comeback would start about 6 months after a Tory victory.

In the sense that people are willing to vote for Labour again... I doubt it. Although, 6 months of the Tories will be bad enough...

More like six weeks...

[You kip if you want to...]

I'd say not until around 2015.

The comeback would start about 6 months after a Tory victory.

In the sense that people are willing to vote for Labour again... I doubt it. Although, 6 months of the Tories will be bad enough...

More like six weeks...

LOL, we're all such Republicans...