German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?

Hahahaha, I dunno. I'm satisfied as long as we will have a government of some kind next month. But seriously, I will be pleased with any coalition as long as either the SPD or the Greens will be part of it... and the Left Party being not part of it. And that's probably what we'll get.

My personal favorite would perhaps be the "traffic light", but currently only a grand coalition and a "Jamaican coalition" would have a majority in both chambers, in the Bundestag as well as in the Bundesrat. And a grand coalition would mean a super-strong government and a very weak opposition.... not so good, I think.

Well, I will lean back, enjoy the show and see what comes out in the end.

[minionofmidas]

I want a SPD-Green minority government and new elections in spring 2007.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Middle-aged Europe]

First vote map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebtw05e.html

Second vote map:
http://www.election.de/specials/Wamebtw05z.html

Maps require Java. The strength of the individual parties per constituency can be seen by clicking on the field in the upper right corner.

[Frodo]

German Election Is Inconclusive; No Clear Winner

By RICHARD BERNSTEIN
Published: September 19, 2005

BERLIN, Monday, Sept. 19 - After a bitterly fought campaign that many people in this country had believed only a few days ago would produce a historic vote for change, the German electorate failed Sunday to give any party or candidate a clear majority.

The results gave the right-of-center Christian Democratic Union, led by Mrs. Merkel, the highest vote total, about 35.2 percent. But even an unexpectedly strong showing by her party's main coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democratic Party, failed to give an absolute majority in Parliament to Mrs. Merkel, who had seemed confidently on her way to becoming the first woman to lead Germany just a few weeks ago. Parliament chooses the chancellor.

The Social Democratic Party of Mr. Schröder received 34.3 percent, which means that it has lost the slender majority in Parliament it has long enjoyed with its partner, the Greens, which has enabled Mr. Schröder to govern for seven years.

In that sense, the one sure result is that the present governing coalition has been voted out. But it was also clear that Mr. Schröder, written off by the German media as a political has-been in recent weeks, had engineered a masterful maneuver against Mrs. Merkel.

The election concluded a seesaw campaign in which Mrs. Merkel, 51, who embraced American-style economics and closer ties with the United States, lost her momentum in the final days to Mr. Schröder, 61, a veteran politician who has argued that her economic ideas are unfair.

The election has been widely seen as a crucial one in Germany, the powerhouse of Europe's economy, because it confronted the German public with some very fundamental choices at a time of deep economic difficulty, no growth, high deficits and record unemployment. In essence, Mrs. Merkel, who has often been likened to Margaret Thatcher, campaigned for deep free-market reforms and reductions in social welfare, while Mr. Schröder campaigned on the notion that his government has already put into place the more modest reforms needed.

Given the deeply divided vote, the next few days and weeks will almost surely be taken up by intense negotiations among this country's political parties as they seek to forge a coalition that will give one of the candidates the parliamentary majority needed to become chancellor.

Mrs. Merkel in particular was expected to seek an alliance with her rivals, Mr. Schröder's Social Democrats, creating what has come to be called a "grand coalition," even though Mrs. Merkel spoke out strongly against such a possibility during the campaign.

source

[Storebought]

I wonder why the CDU did *comparatively* well in Schleswig-Holstein compared to the rest of northern Germany.

EDIT: And one SH district represented by Count Bismarck!

But as the results stand, Schroeder will of course renege on his pre-election promise to not enter a coalition with the Marxists and the haters in Die Linkspartei if it means not having to form a "grand" coalition. Schroeder = the personal worst of Gore and Clinton combined.

What this election means, though, is that Germans by and large are afraid to death of electing a government capable of enacting even the most trifiling of economic reforms (e.g. means-testing the pension program, relaxing labor regulations, etc.).

This election is of course great news for Wladynowo, Poland, though, which could use the influx of new German jobs.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, the governing coalition of the SPD and Greens didn't get a mandate but neither did Merkel's CDU/CSU, so what happens now:

a) A 'Grand Coalition' with the CDU/CSU and SPD
b) A CDU/CSU and FDP minority government
c) A Left Coalition majority government of the SPD, Greens and Left Party

It's no victory for either Schroeder or Merkel come to think of it (both parties have lost seats along with the Greens); while the combined Left vote trumps the Right vote

It would seem that disaffected SPD voters have gone to the Left Party

Dave

[Michael Z]

I wouldn't be surprised if Stoiber makes a deal behind Merkel's back and we'll see a Grand Coalition with Schroder as Chancellor and Stoiber as finance minister.  In any case, I suspect that Kirchhof's proposed 25% flat tax lost the CDU a huge amount of votes.

[CO-OWL]

Which coalition would you guys like to see?

A stable one, working within a month...
Any coalition without Gerhard Schröder!

Among the realistic choices I would prefer a grand coalition. A "Jamaica coalition" would be interesting, but I simply cannot imagine CSU and Greens in the same government (not to speak of FDP-Greens conflicts and issues like nuclear power, Turkey, economic reforms etc.).

[WMS]

What. A. Bloody. Mess.

First of all, What the hell is wrong with East Germany?! High vote totals for the atrocious Left Party (everything I don't like about the left, rolled up into one) and the best margins for the equally vile NPD (no comments necessary). Ugh! Ugh! Ugh! Berlin sucks majorly!

I personally wouldn't mind a grand coalition, although I am wondering what the FDP and Greens will do. Oh, I never thought anyone would make the Greens look good, but the Left Party managed to pull that off. Damn Schroeder and his clever campaigning...and if there's any type of government with minority backing by the Left Party, I will personally lose all respect for the German government. Not to mention relations between Germany and the U.S. would move into Chavez territory...

Or how about CDU and CSU splitting ways, as in an SPD-Greens-CSU coalition?

Well, Lewis, is that an actual possibility?

Well, to put it the other way...

CDU/CSU: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the FDP.

FDP: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the CDU/CSU.

SPD: Ruled out a coalition with no party, except for the Left.PDS. However, all coalitions other than with the Greens (CDU/CSU, FDP, and even Left Party) remain controversial within the party, with supporters and opponents for each option.

Greens: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the SPD.

Left Party: Ruled out a coalition with really any party, no exceptions.

I take it this is all still accurate, or has the lower-than-expected vote totals for the CDU/CSU scrambled this?

Well, I'm very surprised and very disappointed

Pretty much the same. The Left Party vote really ticks me off...

A stable one, working within a month...
Any coalition without Gerhard Schröder!

Among the realistic choices I would prefer a grand coalition. A "Jamaica coalition" would be interesting, but I simply cannot imagine CSU and Greens in the same government (not to speak of FDP-Greens conflicts and issues like nuclear power, Turkey, economic reforms etc.).

Why the CSU scrap with the Greens as opposed to the CDU?
But I agree with you.

[Middle-aged Europe]

First of all, What the hell is wrong with East Germany?! High vote totals for the atrocious Left Party (everything I don't like about the left, rolled up into one) and the best margins for the equally vile NPD (no comments necessary). Ugh! Ugh! Ugh! Berlin sucks majorly!

Loooong story. And I don't have the three or four hours necessary to explain it right now in full length... the whole deep-rooted cultural differences between West and East Germans and the strategy of the PDS (now Left Party) of positioning itself as the "only" party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the "arrogant" West Germans etc.

Well, to put it the other way...

CDU/CSU: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the FDP.

FDP: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the CDU/CSU.

SPD: Ruled out a coalition with no party, except for the Left.PDS. However, all coalitions other than with the Greens (CDU/CSU, FDP, and even Left Party) remain controversial within the party, with supporters and opponents for each option.

Greens: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the SPD.

Left Party: Ruled out a coalition with really any party, no exceptions.

I take it this is all still accurate, or has the lower-than-expected vote totals for the CDU/CSU scrambled this?

Well, let me see, the current situation is the following...

CDU/CSU: Are ready to enter coalitions with the SPD (under the condition that Merkel becomes Chancellor) or FDP and Greens (the so-called "Jamaican coalition").

SPD: Are ready to enter coalitions with the CDU/CSU (under the condition that Schröder remains Chancellor) or FDP and Greens (the so-called "Traffic light coalition").

FDP: Are apparently ready to enter a coalition with CDU/CSU and Greens, depending on the circumstances.

Greens: Well, don't know what they're up to... maybe "Traffic light" too.

Left Party: Is still ruling out any sort of cooperation with any other party.

Why the CSU scrap with the Greens as opposed to the CDU?
But I agree with you.

The CSU is even more conservative on some issues than the CDU, especially social issues and immigration etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't be surprised if Stoiber makes a deal behind Merkel's back and we'll see a Grand Coalition with Schroder as Chancellor and Stoiber as finance minister.

Does Stoiber really want power so bad as to d... oh... right. Ask a silly question

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Knocks rather a big hole in the whole "flat tax revolution" rubbish doesn't it?

[Umengus]

I wouldn't be surprised if Stoiber makes a deal behind Merkel's back and we'll see a Grand Coalition with Schroder as Chancellor and Stoiber as finance minister.  In any case, I suspect that Kirchhof's proposed 25% flat tax lost the CDU a huge amount of votes.

[WMS]

Loooong story. And I don't have the three or four hours necessary to explain it right now in full length... the whole deep-rooted cultural differences between West and East Germans and the strategy of the PDS (now Left Party) of positioning itself as the "only" party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the "arrogant" West Germans etc.

I'd known there was a big split between East and West Germans, but I never realized the Easterners were so fond of extremists...

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Well, that's murky enough. So, SDP = Red, CDU/CSU = Black, FDP = Yellow, Green = duh, Green? What's the Left Party, a shade of red too red to be seen with the naked eye?

What odds do you give to the various coalitions?

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Ah, got it. Well, won't this be entertaining...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but I never realized the Easterners were so fond of extremists...

A lot of it is protest voting (the unemployment figures for the former East Germany are truely scary)... the extreme and Neo-Nazi Right have done quite well to very well in some state elections over the past 10 years or so.

[WMS]

but I never realized the Easterners were so fond of extremists...

A lot of it is protest voting (the unemployment figures for the former East Germany are truely scary)... the extreme and Neo-Nazi Right have done quite well to very well in some state elections over the past 10 years or so.

This many years out since reunification? Geez, I take it the plan to bring up the East German economy hasn't worked too well.

[Beet]

This is Germany's version of the 2000 election. I predict whoever comes out on top will be a radical who invades some third world country

[Colin]

Wow just wow. This is absolutely crazy. I was looking for some sort of election news last night on Cable News Channels, yeah right they were stuck on Katrina still and not even headline news would say a single word about it. This and Deutsche Welle doesn't start broadcasting till 2 AM on one of the local cable access channels. I read the Pittsburgh paper and their's just a small snipet on it saying that a Grand Coalition was likely and not much else. But now I see the headline on the Finanacial Times.

Election Deadlock in Germany
Chancellor and Challenger Both Claim Victory; Shroder Rules Out Working Under Merkel Leadership

Well this is quite a mess it seems. This is what happens when you have 20% of the electorate undecided into the final week. I was suprised about that FDP result, much better than even I expected but the SPD and the CDU/CSU having a nearly equal share of the seats? That's just insane. I think the best that can be hoped for now is an actual working government within the next month. I personally think the Jamaican Coalition may actually be the option that wins out in the end, although I would seriously doubt its stability although not to the extent of a Grand Coalition.

Question to the Germans, or anyone else who knows more about the selection of the German chancellor than I, can a party abstain when a chancellor is being elected in the Bundestag? Is their any chance that Die Linkspartei could do this?

Also 4.9% for NPD in Saxony. Good lord what has Germany come to.

[Jake]

Their senses

[jimrtex]

Saxony-Anhalt
Brandenburg
Mecklenburg - Lower Pomerania
Berlin

Is there a traditional order for presenting the states in Germany?  I've seen where north to south is used in the West, followed by north to south in the East.  Or a variant where the East was incorporated among the West.  You used a "U" format, going north to south in the West and south to north in the East, finishing in the capital.

For a long time, there was such an ordering in the US.   For example this is the order that the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution are signed, and was used in political conventions.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I wonder what the impact of Merkel's support for increasing the VAT was on CDUs vote.

I suspect it was a significant drain.

Comments,

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Their senses

Lots of votes for an Islamist-coddling Neo-Nazi party is coming to their senses? And you say you're not a fascist.

[A-Max]

Their senses

Lots of votes for an Islamist-coddling Neo-Nazi party is coming to their senses? And you say you're not a fascist.

So what if he is.  You're a communist for God's sake!  Communist or fascist, there's no difference.  They're both bullsh**t ideologies.

[Burn baby, Burn]

I never realized the CSU was so strong in Bavaria. its alimost like Alberta and Canada voting Conservative.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder why the CDU did *comparatively* well in Schleswig-Holstein compared to the rest of northern Germany.

Largely due to geometry. Schleswig-Holstein has no pronounced CDU strongholds, but some very pronounced SPD strongholds in Lübeck and Kiel. On an even share of the electorate, therefore, the CDU can appear to pretty much sweep the state (they won about two thirds of direct seats in the state election recently). On a modest SPD lead, the state appears tied. On a conclusive SPD lead as in 98 and 02, however, the CDU loses all its seats as once.

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I'd love to see that, but seems like it's not gonna happen.

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True. They returned the CDU to parliament. You'd probably have to shoot every single Christian Democrat to get that bolded part through.

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Of course, this is actually horrible news for Wlodynowo as Germany's economy collapses and Wlodynowo residents' seasonal jobs in construction or agriculture in Germany are lost.