German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

Geez, I take it the plan to bring up the East German economy hasn't worked too well.

There never was one. We had Kohl for 8 years past reunification, remember. He had a plan to bring up the quality of East German housing by subsidies to West German rich investing their money in that (and hey - it worked) , but nothing beyond that really.

[minionofmidas]

This is Germany's version of the 2000 election. I predict whoever comes out on top will be a radical who invades some third world country

LOL!

[minionofmidas]

Question to the Germans, or anyone else who knows more about the selection of the German chancellor than I, can a party abstain when a chancellor is being elected in the Bundestag?

Yes. You can vote NOTA. In fact, the custom is for only one candidate to stand, with the entire opposition voting NOTA.

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I'd currently put that chances in the very high 90's.

[minionofmidas]

Saxony-Anhalt
Brandenburg
Mecklenburg - Lower Pomerania
Berlin

Is there a traditional order for presenting the states in Germany?  I've seen where north to south is used in the West, followed by north to south in the East.  Or a variant where the East was incorporated among the West.  You used a "U" format, going north to south in the West and south to north in the East, finishing in the capital.

For a long time, there was such an ordering in the US.   For example this is the order that the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution are signed, and was used in political conventions.

There used to be a traditional ordering in the West - same that I used except with Saarland behind Bavaria (because it only joined in the 50s, I suppose.) Constituencies were numbered in that order until 1990. After 1990, the eastern states were added behind the Saarland, first Berlin, then the remaining five North to South.
However, with the remap of 2002, this order was officially scrapped. The current constituency ordering has states North to South by their northernmost spots, thence SlH - MVP - Hamburg (due to two uninhabited islands off the Elbe estuary that belong to the city) - Lower Saxony - Bremen - Brandenburg - Saxony Anhalt - Berlin - NRW - Saxony - Hessen - Thuringia (northernmost points of these three are almost on the same line, btw) - RhP - Bavaria - BW - Saarland. Obviously, this order is so frigging stupid that I refuse to observe it. The U shape is my own personal idiosyncracy.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder what the impact of Merkel's support for increasing the VAT was on CDUs vote.

I suspect it was a significant drain.

Comments,

Definitely. That and the Kirchhof/Flat Tax or no chaos are probably the main reasons behind the FDP gains. In the final days of the campaign, the CDU just looked like a less organized, more stupid version of the FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Update on what I said about Dresden.
They say it's highly unlikely to change the party's overall entitlement. However, the SPD needs only about 48K votes to move a mandate from Schleswig-Holstein to Saxony, and the CDU...hold your breath...needs about 40K votes to move a mandate to Saxony from...er, look it up, I've forgotten...and it needs these votes as urgently as a shot into the oral cavity as it's already got overhang mandates in Saxony anyways, so if they get over 40K votes in Dresden they'll end up losing a seat. Of course, they can counterbalance that by winning the direct seat. Little to no chance of any change for FDP, Greens, and Left.

[minionofmidas]

Chances of governments right now...

Red-Red-Green (somebody asked what the Left's colour is, btw. in diagrams it's sort of a reddish violet. In expressions like this, they're red too.)  - Everybody possibly involved keeps saying no, so looks like this one's out.

-Jamaica, aka Black Traffic Light (Schwarze Ampel in German), aka Schwampel - only option to get CDU and FDP into government together despite having lost the election, which is the only reason it gets hyped right now really. Greens know it would mean suicide for them. Not gonna happen, although I won't rule out serious but failed talks.
Snippet from interview with Jürgen Trittin:
[...]
"Is a black-yellow-green cabinet possible, from your perspective?"
"Mrs Merkel has declared she wants to have talks with us. We won't refuse talks. But for us, issues are more important than power."
"If the Union is ready to move into the Greens' direction on nuclear power and welfare net reforms, could you imagine a coalition?"
"I don't answer silly hypothetical questions. [...] "
Main reasons leading Greens have not just ruled it out flat out are a) they're feeling flattered b) they're laughing their arses off.

Grand Coalition - Would be a coalition of losers, and be seen as such by everybody. Was apparently most people's preferred option during much of the campaign, but the mood swung heavily against it late, and seems to be continuing to do so. Poses major strategic problems to both CDU and SPD. The SPD would bleed support to Left and Greens, the CDU would start losing state elections. Add to that personal egoes. If we had a 39-34 result, We'd probably have a Grand Coalition half rolled up by now. But we don't. As I predicted before the election, Merkel needed to beat Schröder by several points to win the chancellorship. It hasn't happened, und das ist gut so. The best chance for a Grand Coalition now is a coordinated double coup in CDU and SPD that forces both Schröder and Merkel to retire. (I loved the Financial Times Deutschland headline yesterday. "Both Losers Want to Be Chancellor.")

-The Traffic Light. Only reasonable-ish stable-ish government possible with this parliament really. The FDP doesn't want to. We'll see if they change their minds once the result has sunk in. I'm not ruling it out, but I'm not holding my breath either. It would be not as suicidal as the Greens propping up Merkel (and there'd be more common ground within the government too), but very dangerous for the FDP nonetheless.

-New Elections. My guess at what's going to happen. The route there may be circuitous though, and the exact route taken will effect the outcome of the election. For example, Jamaican negotiations failed at the last minute likely gives us an SPD governing alone, or possibly with the Left, by Easter. A standoff between SPD & Greens on the one hand and Union & FDP on the other hand right down to a contested chancellor's election either results in the Left grudgingly voting Schröder in on the third ballot, leading possibly to a highly instable toleration that may not last out its term, or even to a red-red-green cabinet after all, or in Merkel semi-winning the chancellor's election, and then either new elections right away, or to her trying a ridiculous CDU-FDP minority and having to admit defeat once it comes to passing a budget.

Rundown on the German constitution: There is no such thing, known from many other countries with parliamentary government, as the king or president telling one person to form a government. Everybody may try to. (Nor is there any such thing - despite current CDU and FDP claims to the contrary, which are just plain lies - as a tradition that the largest party gets to nominate the chancellor. The FDP governed with the SPD for four terms during Guido Westerwelle's lifetime. During three of these, the Union was the strongest party in parliament.) A Chancellor's election does not have to be held at parliament's constituent session, a month from now, but this has been the custom, observed all but once or twice in the Federal Republic. Once such an election is held, however, every MP gets to vote for one of the declared candidates, or NOTA. If nobody wins a majority of the strength of the House, the election is immediately repeated. If once again, nobody wins, parliament is adjourned for three weeks. Three weeks later, there is one more round of balloting (there may be new candidates). If someone now wins a majority, he is chancellor. If no one wins a majority, the President has the options of either calling new elections, or swearing in the top vote getter anyways. He has another three weeks to make up his mind. This is the only political decision the German Constitution ever allows to the President, and it's never come to that since the Constitution is in place. As one alarmed constitutional scholar noticed on TV yesterday, there is no provision for the case of a tie.
As of now, I'm therefore more or less expecting new elections to be called sometime around the first of december, and be held in january.

[minionofmidas]

But just imagine the Tories would win both the Scottish and and Welsh regional elections at the same time...

Pigs would be flying

I can proudly declare that pigs are circling the sky over Frankfurt today.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, like I said, that´s very unusual for Germany.

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

No, he just knows the German people better than the pollsters do.

[minionofmidas]

IF Gysi and Lafontaine are really going to run we will almost certainly see a CDU/FDP victory as well as a very strong result for PDS/WASG.

Haha!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, he just knows the German people better than the pollsters do.

Obviously

[minionofmidas]

If PDS/WASG could mobilize enough frustrated SPD voters who would stay home otherwise, this might be the only chance for the SPD to be at least the junior partner in a grand coalition...

Kudos to the Owl.

[minionofmidas]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

Nope. NPD/DVU should be glad when they receive 1% of the vote. The PDS, on the other hand, has a real chance to get back into the Bundestag. Especially if they manage to get Gysi and/or Lafontaine on their ticket. Each man alone could mean a real boost for the party.

1%? You're being very optimistic (pessimistic for them). I don't see how they can crack 5%, but 1% should not be a problem.
As for the left...Gysi's said he doesn't believe in an alliance getting forged. He says there's not enough time. EMNID says such an alliance could poll up to 8%.

Wow, an accurate poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's an odd thing; the media over here are going on about this result being the one that No.10 really didn't want to happen, about how everyone in the Government was desperate to see Merkel win etc. etc... despite the opposite of both probably being the case (the longterm British foriegn policy goals being Turkey joining the E.U and no clear leader in the E.U, unless it's us...)

O/c the views they (somewhat bizarrely in the complete absense of evidence for them...) are assuming the Government takes happen to be the views of the large majority of the media

[minionofmidas]

So is this all because of the economy? I was hearing about how the new numbers are misleading and the economy's not really as bad as they imply, but based on these poll numbers it looks like the CDU is reaping what you would expect with numbers actually like this.

the SPD will lose not so much, or not just, because of the state of the economy but because of their response to it.
Once again, as with their late 01/early 02 poll leads, the CDU's supporters are highly motivated but they're not making (m)any new converts.
The difference is that I don't see how the hell the other side is going to be motivated to go to the polls...or why we should (needless to say I'll go anyways). It's just Poison  vs Diet Poison.

The voters have made up their mind in the end, and have purchased a Diet Poison. Lovely. Have a taste.

[minionofmidas]

According to a projection I´ve found on election.de the new Bundestag would look like this (if the election were held today):

CDU/CSU: 291 (+43)
SPD: 166 (-85)
PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)
Greens: 49 (-6)
FDP: 43 (-4)

In brackets are the changes to the last election.

Greens and Left off by just two seats each.

[minionofmidas]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

Chances of the CDU/CSU not being in the next government (either with the FDP or the SPD): approximately 0. I can't lose.

You might yet. But you may win yet, too...

[minionofmidas]

Btw, I will officially consider the election won if CDU/FDP is closer to SPD/Greens than SPD/Greens/Left

Victory!

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Oh, er, well... whatever. I'll ignore that part, and claim victory anyways.

[minionofmidas]

Here's an odd thing; the media over here are going on about this result being the one that No.10 really didn't want to happen, about how everyone in the Government was desperate to see Merkel win etc. etc... despite the opposite of both probably being the case (the longterm British foriegn policy goals being Turkey joining the E.U and no clear leader in the E.U, unless it's us...)

O/c the views they (somewhat bizarrely in the complete absense of evidence for them...) are assuming the Government takes happen to be the views of the large majority of the media

You find that "odd"? You're easily startled by the obvious.

[CO-OWL]

Btw, I will officially consider the election won if CDU/FDP is closer to SPD/Greens than SPD/Greens/Left

Victory!

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Oh, er, well... whatever. I'll ignore that part, and claim victory anyways.

You sound like a ... politician.

[minionofmidas]

What's your take on my analysis of options?

[minionofmidas]

Despite their recent fabulous success, German pollsters keep polling Germans...

25% want to vote again baby, like we did last summer
73% prefer the parties to work with the result they were given

33% prefer a grand coalition
26% are jamaicans (and yeah, until sunday 6pm, safe to say a majority of them had never heard of the concept)
20% want a real traffic light
just 9% want red red green
either the poll had more options that weren't reported, or many just don't have a clue what to do

If there is to be a Grand Coalition, 50% say Schröder should be chancellor, 43% say Merkel should be, remainder doesn't care (there was no "other" option)

[minionofmidas]

I love the title of the Spiegel election special (out today)
Keine Macht für Niemand[/b] (no power to nobody), after the old anarchist motto and Ton Steine Scherben song.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

1) The CDU accepts Gerhard Schröder as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

2) The SPD accepts Angela Merkel as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

3) Both Merkel and Schröder step aside and CDU/CSU and SPD compromise on the Chancellor question... one of the CDU minister-presidents (state PM's) would most likely end up being Chancellor.

4) CDU/CSU and SPD agree on the "Israeli option": Schröder and Merkel will each be Chancellor for the half of a term.

5) CDU/FDP and Greens overcome their programmatic and ideological differences and agree on a coalition.

6) The FDP backs down from its earlier statements and agrees on a coalition with SPD and Greens.

7) Schröder is somehow elected Chancellor and forms a SPD/Green minority government, perhaps supported by the Left Party.

8 ) Merkel is somehow elected Chancellor (perhaps in the thrid ballot with relative majority) and forms a CDU/FDP minority government.

9) Either Schröder or Merkel are elected Chancellor in the third ballot with relative majority, but President Köhler refuses to appoint him/her and calls for early elections again.


I think options 2) and 3) are most likely at the moment. If neither of those two come true, I would place my bets on 6), 7), 8 ), or 9).

[minionofmidas]

I have four statements to make...in separate posts (gotta boost my post count).

First,
my description of the system for electing the chancellor was slightly incorrect. There actually is a presidential nomination of the chancellor-candidate for the first ballot. It's just that it has always been done after the facts were settled, just before the vote.
Also, the third vote is held two weeks after the first, not three, and the second vote (possibly with new candidates) may be held at any time in between.