German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[M]

I for one am glad he only manages 2.4%. The 50th anniversary of the Dresden bombings has been 'milked' somewhat by the German far-right. It's good to see that it has had little effect.

Well, perhaps it did, ten years ago.

[Michael Z]

I'm surprised that Merkel is still an option for the CDU, given some of the scathing criticism from Merkel and Merz - who, admittedly, weren't her biggest friends in the party to begin with, but I'd like to see how someone like Merkel, who is a hugely polarising figure within her own party already can possibly hope to govern with the SPD.

"Merkel and Merz"??

Oh, sorry, I meant Stoiber and Merz. Silly me. :-/

[Frodo]

Merkel to be chancellor after deal with SPD

By Hugh Williamson in Berlin and Bertrand Benoit in Frankfurt
Published: October 8 2005 03:00 | Last updated: October 8 2005 03:00

The Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel is set to replace Gerhard Schröder as Germany's next chancellor, in a political deal that will see the departure of Mr Schröder from the political stage, senior members of the ruling Social Democrats have told the Financial Times.

Ms Merkel's expected victory in the battle for the chancellorship is likely to be announced on Monday, following a meeting tomorrow evening in Berlin between Mr Schröder and Ms Merkel. The two leaders met on Thursday evening for four hours to agree the framework of a SPD-CDU grand coalition, but refused yesterday to disclose details. The talks also included the SPD leader Franz Müntefering, and Edmund Stoiber, Bavarian premier.

Officials close to Mr Schröder said he would not become vice chancellor and foreign minister in the coalition, in spite of pressure from within the SPD for him do so. "The chancellor has done what was necessary, to ensure the SPD is on an equal footing with the CDU in the coalition," one official said.

source

[12th Doctor]

Merkel to be chancellor after deal with SPD

By Hugh Williamson in Berlin and Bertrand Benoit in Frankfurt
Published: October 8 2005 03:00 | Last updated: October 8 2005 03:00

The Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel is set to replace Gerhard Schröder as Germany's next chancellor, in a political deal that will see the departure of Mr Schröder from the political stage, senior members of the ruling Social Democrats have told the Financial Times.

Ms Merkel's expected victory in the battle for the chancellorship is likely to be announced on Monday, following a meeting tomorrow evening in Berlin between Mr Schröder and Ms Merkel. The two leaders met on Thursday evening for four hours to agree the framework of a SPD-CDU grand coalition, but refused yesterday to disclose details. The talks also included the SPD leader Franz Müntefering, and Edmund Stoiber, Bavarian premier.

Officials close to Mr Schröder said he would not become vice chancellor and foreign minister in the coalition, in spite of pressure from within the SPD for him do so. "The chancellor has done what was necessary, to ensure the SPD is on an equal footing with the CDU in the coalition," one official said.

source

Sorry, I kinda lost track of this, what is the size of the CDP/CSP plurality?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About 4 seats IIRC. Or was it 6?

[minionofmidas]

4.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Merkel to be chancellor after deal with SPD

By Hugh Williamson in Berlin and Bertrand Benoit in Frankfurt
Published: October 8 2005 03:00 | Last updated: October 8 2005 03:00

The Christian Democrat leader Angela Merkel is set to replace Gerhard Schröder as Germany's next chancellor, in a political deal that will see the departure of Mr Schröder from the political stage, senior members of the ruling Social Democrats have told the Financial Times.

Ms Merkel's expected victory in the battle for the chancellorship is likely to be announced on Monday, following a meeting tomorrow evening in Berlin between Mr Schröder and Ms Merkel. The two leaders met on Thursday evening for four hours to agree the framework of a SPD-CDU grand coalition, but refused yesterday to disclose details. The talks also included the SPD leader Franz Müntefering, and Edmund Stoiber, Bavarian premier.

Officials close to Mr Schröder said he would not become vice chancellor and foreign minister in the coalition, in spite of pressure from within the SPD for him do so. "The chancellor has done what was necessary, to ensure the SPD is on an equal footing with the CDU in the coalition," one official said.

source

The more interesting question will be anyway who's going to be vice chancellor and/or foreign minister. Virtually everybody who has something to say in the SPD (and some who don't have much to say in the party) has been mentioned as possible vice chancellor/foreign minister now. And whoever will it be in the end, could also be a possible chancellor-candidate for the SPD in 2009.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's official now: Angela Merkel will become Chancellor of Germany. In the new cabinet, eight ministers will be from the SPD, six from the CDU/CSU.

Edmund Stoiber is set to become minister of economy. Gerhard Schröder will probably not part of the cabinet.

[minionofmidas]

Merkel is going to be chancellor.
Norbert Lammert (CDU) is going to be Bundestagspräsident (comparable to the British speaker.)
Schröder will apparently retire.
There are going to be 8 SPD and 6 CDU and CSU ministers.

SPD - Foreign affairs (loses some European competences), Employment (three year experiment of employment and economy ministries fusion is over), Finance, Justice, Environment, Transportation (also the closest thing to an East Germany department), Health, International Development.
CDU or CSU - Defense, Home, Economy (enlarged with some Euro competences, reserved for Stoiber), Agriculture (that will once again be its name ), Education (the federal German education department is about as powerless as the US one, in case you wondered), and that catch-all Families/Women/Youth one.

And they've already fleshed that much out before they're beginning official negotiations!
These are o/c going to take another while.
Oh, and in the end, party conventions will have to vote on the result. This is a formality in the CDU and CSU and might prove interesting in the SPD (though it'll pass...but, say, 60% to 70% yes votes would of course be seen as a vote of no confidence into the result...). I'd also like to see just how many votes Merkel will be missing in the official chancellor election.

[Bono]

Merkel is going to be chancellor.
Norbert Lammert (CDU) is going to be Bundestagspräsident (comparable to the British speaker.)
Schröder will apparently retire.
There are going to be 8 SPD and 6 CDU and CSU ministers.

SPD - Foreign affairs (loses some European competences), Employment (three year experiment of employment and economy ministries fusion is over), Finance, Justice, Environment, Transportation (also the closest thing to an East Germany department), Health, International Development.
CDU or CSU - Defense, Home, Economy (enlarged with some Euro competences, reserved for Stoiber), Agriculture (that will once again be its name ), Education (the federal German education department is about as powerless as the US one, in case you wondered), and that catch-all Families/Women/Youth one.

And they've already fleshed that much out before they're beginning official negotiations!
These are o/c going to take another while.
Oh, and in the end, party conventions will have to vote on the result. This is a formality in the CDU and CSU and might prove interesting in the SPD (though it'll pass...but, say, 60% to 70% yes votes would of course be seen as a vote of no confidence into the result...). I'd also like to see just how many votes Merkel will be missing in the official chancellor election.

So, waht happens to wittle Guido?

[minionofmidas]

Nominal leader of the opposition?
Oh wait, that's Wolfgang Gerhardt.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nominal leader of the opposition?
Oh wait, that's Wolfgang Gerhardt.

At least for a few months until Guido takes over.

[Bono]

Nominal leader of the opposition?
Oh wait, that's Wolfgang Gerhardt.

Whozzat?

[minionofmidas]

I call that government of the past, by the past, for the past.
Schäuble to be home minister - as he was from 1989 to 1991.
Schröder won't serve in the cabinet but might take over the SPD chairmanship once again.
The CSU to have two ministries - economy and agriculture/consumer protection. Horst Seehofer, former health secretary and now very much the leading representant of the Union left, rumoured to get the job.
Peter Struck rumoured to be foreign minister. Unclear whether foreign department and vice chancellorship will remain in the same hands.
Haven't read this anywhere, but I guess Müntefering will be Employment minister.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nominal leader of the opposition?
Oh wait, that's Wolfgang Gerhardt.

Whozzat?

The FDP's former nominee for the office of the foreign minister... which isn't going to happen anymore. He's also the leader of the FDP "caucus" in the Bundestag, but is set to be ousted by Westerwelle in early 2006.

[minionofmidas]

What OldEurope said. Also former party chair.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ROFL, live poll on N24 news channel: "Does Angela Merkel appear happy and satisfied to you?"

[Bono]

Pff, status quo.
I hope this coalition falls in shame and disgrace.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This government is probably going to be a huge nothing, much like the Minnesota legislature now (where the GOP house and DFL Senate simply kill any bill the other passes and nothing gets done)

Since the left still has a true ideological majority, Merkel's government will have a tough time passing any real new reforms, especially with the SDP holding many Minister positions. Left Party will vote with the Greens against them, and SDP will probably side mostly with them.

Plus now the SDP can collapse the government whenever they want, meaning they took the plan Lewis said earlier, enter a grand coalition, then kill the government at the time they are most likely to take control again. I expect the new government to last a year and a half at most before new elections.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Plus now the SDP can collapse the government whenever they want, meaning they took the plan Lewis said earlier, enter a grand coalition, then kill the government at the time they are most likely to take control again. I expect the new government to last a year and a half at most before new elections.

This would require the SPD to find someone "chancellorial" within their ranks, which they could position against Merkel.

Apparently, Schröder and Müntefering have tried very hard to bring Matthias Platzeck, the relatively young/relatively successful/relatively popular (it least in his state) premier of Brandenburg, as new vice chancellor/foreign minister into Merkel's cabinet. Platzeck refuses, arguing that he has promised his voters to stay in Brandenburg the full term (damn, I hate politicians with principles).

Aside from Platzeck, the other possible vice chancellors/foreign ministers mentioned in the SPD are mostly a bunch of old fossils (including the 73-year-old interior minister Otto Schily ).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4337424.stm

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, together with the Vice Chancellery, Müntefering will also take over the office of the Minister of Labor. And with Frank-Walter Steinmeier we will have a foreign minister nobody ever heard of... neither abroad nor at home.

Only three members of the old Schröder cabinet, Brigitte Zypries (Justice), Ulla Schmidt (Health), and Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul ("Economic Cooperation and Development", in other words: foreign aid) will keep their posts. The rest are new faces. Of those three, Wieczorek-Zeul will be the only minister left from the original Schröder cabinet (which took office in 1998).

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, together with the Vice Chancellery, Müntefering will also take over the office of the Minister of Labor. And with Frank-Walter Steinmeier we will have a foreign minister nobody ever heard of... neither abroad nor at home.

Only three members of the old Schröder cabinet, Brigitte Zypries (Justice), Ulla Schmidt (Health), and Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul ("Economic Cooperation and Development", in other words: foreign aid) will keep their posts. The rest are new faces. Of those three, Wieczorek-Zeul will be the only minister left from the original Schröder cabinet (which took office in 1998).

Go Red Heidi! Both she and Zypries are South Hessians after all.
Steinmeier has been a close Schröder aide all these years. I'll admit his nomination as Foreign Minister is a bit surprising to me. It will also be a bit disappointing to WMS et al.
 
Finance - former NRW PM Peer Steinbrück. Dull. Old Right. Would have very much been the CDU's choice for vice chancellor. 58 years old, a state minister for the economy from 93 to 00 and for finance from 2000 to 2002 when he took over as PM. Voted out of office a couple months back.
 
Employment - Franz Müntefering. Also to be Vice Chancellor, but unlikely to ever be the chancellor candidate. He's already 60. Party chairman (will he stay on in that position as well? Not sure. Schröder might take over again, actually.) Leader of the Parliamentary Party from 2001 to 05. Was Minister for Transportation 98-99, then General Secretary of the SPD until 2001 IIRC. And I think he used to be a minister in North Rhine Westphalia before 1998.
Foreign: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 49 years old. Was Kanzleramtsminister (under secretary at the chancellor's office? Groping for an accurate translation into Americanospeech here...maybe just go with Chief of Staff. Not accurate but will do. ) throughout the Schröder years.
Justice: Brigitte Zypries
International Development: Heidi Wieczorek-Zeul
Health: Ulla Schmidt. All of them staying on in their former posts, held since 2000, 1998, and 2000 (? Anyways, since the year of the Mad Cow Disease panic)
Transportation: Once again goes to an Easterner, Leipzig's Lord Mayor Wolfgang Tiefensee. He'd been offered the job in 2002 but declined. He'd also been asked to run for state PM of Saxony last year, but declined. Well, seems he's finally listened to the sirens' call...
Environment: Sigmar Gabriel, 46. State PM of Lower Saxony from 99 to 03 (youngest state PM ever at the time). I'm glad they've found a place for Gabriel, but not glad it's environment. I was hoping for Michael Müller at environment you see...
Peter Struck, Minister of Defense from 2001 to 2005, Leader of the Parliamentary Party before that since 98 (when his election was seen as rather a surprise) will likely return to that job.

CDU ministers supposed to be named monday. Given that *official* negotiations have hardly begun, I find all of this dreadfully early. On the part of the SPD, I suppose there's some tactical calculations too. Anybody happy with the choice of ministers has a reason more to be in favor of the government actually coming into place.

[Bono]

Yeah, together with the Vice Chancellery, Müntefering will also take over the office of the Minister of Labor. And with Frank-Walter Steinmeier we will have a foreign minister nobody ever heard of... neither abroad nor at home.

Only three members of the old Schröder cabinet, Brigitte Zypries (Justice), Ulla Schmidt (Health), and Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul ("Economic Cooperation and Development", in other words: foreign aid) will keep their posts. The rest are new faces. Of those three, Wieczorek-Zeul will be the only minister left from the original Schröder cabinet (which took office in 1998).

Go Red Heidi! Both she and Zypries are South Hessians after all.
Steinmeier has been a close Schröder aide all these years. I'll admit his nomination as Foreign Minister is a bit surprising to me. It will also be a bit disappointing to WMS et al.
 
Finance - former NRW PM Peer Steinbrück. Dull. Old Right. Would have very much been the CDU's choice for vice chancellor. 58 years old, a state minister for the economy from 93 to 00 and for finance from 2000 to 2002 when he took over as PM. Voted out of office a couple months back.
 
Employment - Franz Müntefering. Also to be Vice Chancellor, but unlikely to ever be the chancellor candidate. He's already 60. Party chairman (will he stay on in that position as well? Not sure. Schröder might take over again, actually.) Leader of the Parliamentary Party from 2001 to 05. Was Minister for Transportation 98-99, then General Secretary of the SPD until 2001 IIRC. And I think he used to be a minister in North Rhine Westphalia before 1998.
Foreign: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 49 years old. Was Kanzleramtsminister (under secretary at the chancellor's office? Groping for an accurate translation into Americanospeech here...maybe just go with Chief of Staff. Not accurate but will do. ) throughout the Schröder years.
Justice: Brigitte Zypries
International Development: Heidi Wieczorek-Zeul
Health: Ulla Schmidt. All of them staying on in their former posts, held since 2000, 1998, and 2000 (? Anyways, since the year of the Mad Cow Disease panic)
Transportation: Once again goes to an Easterner, Leipzig's Lord Mayor Wolfgang Tiefensee. He'd been offered the job in 2002 but declined. He'd also been asked to run for state PM of Saxony last year, but declined. Well, seems he's finally listened to the sirens' call...
Environment: Sigmar Gabriel, 46. State PM of Lower Saxony from 99 to 03 (youngest state PM ever at the time). I'm glad they've found a place for Gabriel, but not glad it's environment. I was hoping for Michael Müller at environment you see...
Peter Struck, Minister of Defense from 2001 to 2005, Leader of the Parliamentary Party before that since 98 (when his election was seen as rather a surprise) will likely return to that job.

CDU ministers supposed to be named monday. Given that *official* negotiations have hardly begun, I find all of this dreadfully early. On the part of the SPD, I suppose there's some tactical calculations too. Anybody happy with the choice of ministers has a reason more to be in favor of the government actually coming into place.

So, SDP takes all the ministires that would be needed for actual reforms?
I can gather that this will be nothing than the continuation of SDP politics by other means.

[WMS]

Yeah, together with the Vice Chancellery, Müntefering will also take over the office of the Minister of Labor. And with Frank-Walter Steinmeier we will have a foreign minister nobody ever heard of... neither abroad nor at home.

Only three members of the old Schröder cabinet, Brigitte Zypries (Justice), Ulla Schmidt (Health), and Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul ("Economic Cooperation and Development", in other words: foreign aid) will keep their posts. The rest are new faces. Of those three, Wieczorek-Zeul will be the only minister left from the original Schröder cabinet (which took office in 1998).

Go Red Heidi! Both she and Zypries are South Hessians after all.
Steinmeier has been a close Schröder aide all these years. I'll admit his nomination as Foreign Minister is a bit surprising to me. It will also be a bit disappointing to WMS et al.

A continued policy of kissing Russia's ass and confronting the U.S., I see.

On the positive side, this will made Poland (and pretty much the rest of Central Europe) even more pro-U.S. I love divide and conquer policies - they work so well for the U.S. in foreign policy.