German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, SDP takes all the ministires that would be needed for actual reforms?
I can gather that this will be nothing than the continuation of SDP politics by other means.

No, the CDU got the really cool ministries... like "Family, Senior Citizens, Women, and Youth", "Education and Research" or "Consumer Protection, Food, and Agriculture".

The CDU/CSU had apparently three priorities: making Angela Merkel Chancellor, securing the Minister of Economy spot for Edmund Stoiber, and taking the office of the President of the Bundestag in possession. In return they gave the majority of the remaining cabinet posts to the SPD. Perhaps, they would have fared better the other way around (Schröder stays Chancellor and the CDU gets all the important ministries), but this would have been in direct conflict to Merkel's career plans.

Btw, according to a new opinion poll, 79% of the SPD supporters are pleased with the compromise... but only 54% of the CDU/CSU supporters. But that's their problem, and not the SPD's.

[freek]

So, SDP takes all the ministires that would be needed for actual reforms?
I can gather that this will be nothing than the continuation of SDP politics by other means.

And because Merkel will be Chancellor, she will be blamed when the reforms don't have the expected results. Sounds like a fair deal. .

[Michael Z]

Foreign: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 49 years old. Was Kanzleramtsminister (under secretary at the chancellor's office? Groping for an accurate translation into Americanospeech here...maybe just go with Chief of Staff. Not accurate but will do. ) throughout the Schröder years.

I'm confused. Wasn't Otto Shily meant to be foreign minister? At least he was when I last watched German news on, I dunno, Wednesday or Thursday.

[minionofmidas]

Foreign: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 49 years old. Was Kanzleramtsminister (under secretary at the chancellor's office? Groping for an accurate translation into Americanospeech here...maybe just go with Chief of Staff. Not accurate but will do. ) throughout the Schröder years.

I'm confused. Wasn't Otto Shily meant to be foreign minister? At least he was when I last watched German news on, I dunno, Wednesday or Thursday.

Rumour. I never gave it much credence.

[minionofmidas]

The CDU / CSU seems to have its list of people together...although nothing is official...and obviously nobody is pleased with the result...several weird little battles going on...

Economy - Stoiber. Duh.
Home - Schäuble.
Families etc - Ursula von der Leyen. Merkel retainer. Currently holds same position in state of Lower Saxony.
Education etc - Annette Schavan. Holds (or held?) a similar post in Baden Württemberg. Quite well known, perhaps even brilliant, but also something of a Merkel retainer. Lost (and heavily) a battle with Günter Oettinger for who would succeed Baden Württemberg state premier Erwin Teufel last year (who now, at the age of 66, is pursuing a college degree.) A bachelor (can you say that of a woman? Spinster sounds so stupid.), has at times been rumoured to be a Lesbian.
Defense - Franz Josef Jung. Roland Koch crony, enmeshed into the Hessen CDU's financing scandals. Currently leader of the Hessian Landtag parliamentary party. Totally out of his depth at defense, he had wanted Agriculture.
Agriculture - Horst Seehofer (CSU). Sworn & bitter enemy of Merkel. One of the chief leading lights of what's left of the CDU's old moderate/"employee" wing. Used to be Minister for Health under Kohl. Not an agriculture expert (which, in that ministry, is definitely a good thing, thank you very much.) Wanted Families etc.

Leader of parliamentary party - Apparently Volker Kauder, close Merkel aide. This was a victory for Merkel over CDU traditions - Schäuble, Schavan and Kauder are all from the same state, something of a no-no in the fiercely regionalist CDU.
Kanzleramtsminister - Apparently not Merkel aide Norbert Röttgen, but Thomas de Maizière, a relative of Lothar de Maizière (only freely elected PM of the GDR. Merkel was his chief of staff), but nonetheless a West German. Holds a similar position in Saxony.
Or possibly both he and Röttgen. Or possibly...whatever.

Merkel had tried hard to prevent Seehofer. Stoiber insisted on having him. Merkel apparently offered the CSU defense at the last minute (a much more powerful job, and one the CSU had just the man for in Michael Glos) to prevent Seehofer (and of course to find a better place for Jung, who had to be placed as that was a price Merkel agreed to months ago to buy Koch's support). No way.
Meanwhile, Lower Saxony's CDU tried to get foreign affairs expert Friedbert Pflüger into defense - and to shoot down von der Leyen at the same time (see above, under: regionalism.)

[Michael Z]

Home - Schäuble.

Isn't that the same position he had in Kohl's cabinet?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Home - Schäuble.

Isn't that the same position he had in Kohl's cabinet?

Yes, from 1989 to 1991.

[jimrtex]

No, the CDU got the really cool ministries... like "Family, Senior Citizens, Women, and Youth", "Education and Research" or "Consumer Protection, Food, and Agriculture".

The CDU/CSU had apparently three priorities: making Angela Merkel Chancellor, securing the Minister of Economy spot for Edmund Stoiber, and taking the office of the President of the Bundestag in possession. In return they gave the majority of the remaining cabinet posts to the SPD. Perhaps, they would have fared better the other way around (Schröder stays Chancellor and the CDU gets all the important ministries), but this would have been in direct conflict to Merkel's career plans.

Is the Foreign Ministry considered an important post in Germany?  Isn't it usually given to the junior partner like the FPD or Greens?

[minionofmidas]

Indeed. The foreign ministry is usually considered the no.2 job in government. With one short interruption in 93-4, the foreign minister has always held the (purely nominal) rank of vice chancellor from (I think) 69 to 05.

[minionofmidas]

Spiegel English edition article...

LETTER FROM BERLIN

Taming the Lions with Angela Merkel

By Charles Hawley

Germany may finally know the cast of politicians that is going to take over the reins of power, but chancellor-designate Angela Merkel has her work cut out for her. She is now surrounded by a motley crew of power hungry egos just waiting for her first mistake to pounce. To succeed, she'll have to be part lion tamer and part tight rope walker.

Angela Merkel's new job -- lion tamer.
One can be forgiven this German autumn for thinking the day would never come. On Tuesday, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his cabinet made his way across town to President Horst Köhler's office for one of his last visits as chancellor. After a short, subdued ceremony, the team headed back to work -- as "acting chancellor" and "acting cabinet." Following protocol, Köhler released Schröder and Co. from their offices -- and then asked them to continue on until the next government is ready to take over. After all, over one month after the Sept. 18 elections, Germany still doesn't have a new government.

But for those concerned about the country's lack of political clarity, there is now a light at the end of the tunnel. Not only is it clear that Christian Democrat Union (CDU) party leader Angela Merkel will become the country's next chancellor, but her cabinet is also more or less set in stone. All that's left is for Merkel to finish coalition negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD) -- which is expected to happen by the middle of November -- and Germany can get back to business as usual.

But for Merkel, it is unclear whether such a prospect is indeed the proverbial light -- or an oncoming train. Nobody on Merkel's side of the grand coalition table seems terribly pleased with the clutch of cabinet seats she managed to secure in tough negotiations with the SPD, and many of them have been unwilling to shut up about it. Merkel, they say, gave away all of the important seats to her political opponents. Merkel, they say, has given up on her campaign promises of implementing real reform. Merkel, they say, will not have enough power to fulfill her constitutionally guaranteed mandate of providing the government direction.

The Weeble-Wobble

Many are likely underestimating her. After all, at one time or another in the last decade, all those inner-party critics now picking away at Merkel's power base were passed up as she quickly climbed the ladder to the top. She has proven herself to be the political equivalent of a Weeble-Wobble -- shove it as hard as you like, and it will still remain standing. So many have predicted her demise so often that even small mistakes will likely become magnified as her political enemies and media commentators seek vindication.

Angela Merkel has had a difficult road to the top, and it's not likely to get any easier.
Even without the fishbowl effect, she has her hands full with her new cabinet. Indeed, Merkel's role will be like that of  circus lion tamer -- she will shine by keeping the snarling predators at bay. But at the same time, she could get her head bit off if she flinches one bit.

First on the list of those who may be on the prowl for red meat is Edmund Stoiber, who heads the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). Merkel initially offered the Bavarian governor, once her strongest political rival, the post of finance minister. Not surprisingly, given that the post carries the baggage of a soaring national debt and unpopular cuts to the federal budget, the 64-year-old rejected the post. Instead, he laid claim on the Economics Ministry. The post will likely allow him to further his strategy of positioning himself as Germany's shadow chancellor. The wildly popular 12-year governor of Bavaria -- one of the few German states with a healthy economy and the only one which will end the year with a balanced budget. Stoiber has never really recovered from his loss in the 2002 general elections to Gerhard Schröder.

Stoiber begrudges Merkel her success while at the same time enjoying a certain amount of schadenfreude at her party's poor 35.2 percent showing on Sept. 18. His explanation for her election night flop? Merkel's campaign was too cold and Germany's social system was given short shrift. He has made it clear that he wants to change that -- meaning he could very well position himself against Merkel should she attempt to institute any meaningful reforms.

Potential pitfalls for Merkel

Stoiber is also expected to have a formidable political ally in Horst Seehofer, the 56-year-old slated to take over the Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture. Seehofer is famous for his efforts to torpedo Merkel's plans for reforming Germany's healthcare system in recent years. She sought to prevent his entry into her cabinet, but pressure from Stoiber helped secure him a post. Will he repay it with full political loyalty to Stoiber?

The defense ministry is also to be led by a potential Merkel antagonist. France Josef Jung, a long-time friend of Hesse Governor Roland Koch, one of Merkel's greatest inner-party political adversaries, is nothing if not politically loyal to his party friend. When a campaign finance scandal broke in the state, Jung vacated his post so Koch didn't have to. And Koch, it should be remembered, feels much as Stoiber does that Merkel has taken a position that is rightfully his own. In that sense, Jung is seen by some as Koch's agent in the cabinet and could just be waiting for the right moment to fatally weaken Merkel.

Neither is Merkel likely to get any cuddling or warmth from incoming Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. The 63-year-old was part of Merkel's campaign team as an expert for security and foreign policy -- and this will mark his second stint in the interior ministry, which he led before under former Chancellor Helmut Kohl. Wheelchair-bound since an assassination attempt during a campaign appearance in 1990, Schäuble temporarily followed Kohl into the party doghouse after a late-'90s campaign finance slush fund scandal rocked the Christian Democrats and paved the way for Merkel's rise. It was, in other words, Schäuble who passed Merkel on his way down rather than Merkel passing Schäuble on her way up -- and that has made for a not-always-smooth relationship between the two.

 
And those are just the potential pitfalls from within the CDU and CSU. The SPD, even as the party pledges to work with Merkel in forming a productive -- if unwieldy -- government, is not about to prop up the chancellor should she falter. Heading up the SPD faction is party boss Franz Müntefering. Having spent the last month doing his best to keep Merkel out of the chancellery, he is now taking over the labor ministry and the position of vice chancellor. Despite having been in the political ring his entire life, Müntefering is still something of a blank slate. Extremely loyal to Schröder, he was loyal to former SPD head (and now Left Party head) Oskar Lafontaine before that. Now alone at the top, he is something of a wildcard. And his decision to accept the labor ministry post is also seen as a political gamble. If rampant unemployment continue to rise, he will be the first in the line of fire. Should it drop, however, look for him to take credit for the reforms introduced under Gerhard Schröder.

Meet Germany's next foreign minister

Merkel's cabinet is also graced with yet another close ally of outgoing chancellor Schröder. Franz-Walter Steinmeier, 49, is set to be Germany's next foreign minister. Formerly Schröder's chief of staff, Steinmeier's posting is considered to be the largest surprise in Merkel's cabinet. And he is largely seen as someone who would like to carry on the foreign policy of the previous administration -- namely, distance to the United States and close relations with Russia. These are, however, both areas in which Merkel has said she wants to reposition Germany. Although Steinmeier is not known for his brilliant English ability, he has experience on the international stage. He participated in diplomatic negotiations with both Moscow and Israel as well as settling on compensation payments with Libya for victims of the 1986 terrorist bombing of the LaBelle disco in Berlin.

The rest of the SPD team is filled out by Brigitte Zypries, 51, who will carry on as justice minister, Peer Steinbruck, 58, the new finance minister and Ulla Schmidt, 56, who will continue as health minister. Forty-five-year-old Sigmar Gabriel has also been tapped for the environment ministry, Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul, 62, will stay in her development ministry post and Wolfgang Tiefensee, 50, will become Germany's new transport minister.

Merkel has managed to place a few allies on the cabinet: Research Minster Annette Schavan, 50, is considered Merkel's closest ally in the CDU leadership and Family Minister Ursula von der Leyen, 46, is likewise a political friend. Thomas de Maiziere, 51, who will take over as Merkel's chief of staff -- a cabinet position in Germany -- is part of Merkel's inner circle. Still, in a cabinet of 16, she has managed to insert just three political allies, a development that underscores her political weakness.

All of which means that the tightrope Merkel now has to walk is an especially thin one. Having sought to position herself as a great reformer, she is now in the position of keeping a cabinet full of political heavy hitters in line while at the same time trying to squeeze a few political successes out of them. For most of her cabinet -- even many of those from her own camp -- a successful Merkel is the last thing they want to see.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the Foreign Ministry considered an important post in Germany?  Isn't it usually given to the junior partner like the FPD or Greens?

This isn't necessarily a contradiction. The Foreign Ministry is usually claimed by and given to the junior partner because it is an important post.

[WMS]

Meet Germany's next foreign minister

Merkel's cabinet is also graced with yet another close ally of outgoing chancellor Schröder. Franz-Walter Steinmeier, 49, is set to be Germany's next foreign minister. Formerly Schröder's chief of staff, Steinmeier's posting is considered to be the largest surprise in Merkel's cabinet. And he is largely seen as someone who would like to carry on the foreign policy of the previous administration -- namely, distance to the United States and close relations with Russia. These are, however, both areas in which Merkel has said she wants to reposition Germany. Although Steinmeier is not known for his brilliant English ability, he has experience on the international stage. He participated in diplomatic negotiations with both Moscow and Israel as well as settling on compensation payments with Libya for victims of the 1986 terrorist bombing of the LaBelle disco in Berlin.

*boos heartily*
That's my biggest disappointment with all this - the retention of a leftist anti-American hack in charge of German foreign policy.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trouble in the SPD: Franz Müntefering's nominee for the post of the party's secretary-general was defeated today. As a result, Müntefering has just announced that he does not intend to seek re-election as SPD chairman on the party convention in November. He also left open whether he will still join Merkel's cabinet as vice chancellor/minister of labor.

We will have to see who will be Müntefering's sucessor and how this will affect the grand coalition.

[minionofmidas]

Wow.
My friend Udo (SPD voter) has always maintained he doesn't believe this Grand Coalition will happen. And I mean, always. He said so once again thursday night. Maybe he'll be proved right in the end...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Let's see whether Matthias "But I have promised my voters to stay in Brandenburg" Platzeck can still maintain his "no" now.

[minionofmidas]

Trouble in the SPD: Franz Müntefering's nominee for the post of the party's secretary-general was defeated today.

Müntefering's nominee had been Kajo Wasserhövel, an experienced campaign manager but not at all well known or anything - and not seen by everybody as the right man for this job at this time (obviously, the real dispute is about what that job takes at this time ). This was seen as a move by Müntefering to tighten his grip on the party. He lost to Andrea Nahles, young, leftwingish, seen by many as a big potential face for the future, expected by some to appear on that cabinet list. This contested election had been building up for a while. Most commentators had expected the result (either at the convention or at the party board meeting today) to be close. It was also widely pointed out that Nahles had little nothing to lose as a close or closeish defeat would not damage her in any way. Now, at this board meeting, there was a secret vote (of 45 members). Before the vote both candidates agreed not to stand at the convention next month if defeated now. Nahles won 23-14, with 8 abstentions. It was probably the size, rather than the fact, of the defeat that's prompted Müntefering's step.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The two potential Müntefering successors mentioned so far are Kurt Beck, premier of Rhineland-Palatinate, and Matthias Platzeck, premier of Brandenburg.

Beck governs his state with a SPD/FDP coalition, while Platzeck heads a SPD/CDU cabinet. This means there isn't much danger that they would do stupid things now, like seeking a coalition with the Left Party.

The question is how strong their result in the party convention's vote would be and whether the SPD's left would dare to run a own candidate against either of the two.



Btw, there are rumours that Edmund Stoiber now plans to leave the sinking ship... eh, I mean Merkel's cabinet.

[Middle-aged Europe]

For now, CDU/CSU and SPD are planning to proceed with the coalition talks as planned. The SPD convention, where the grand coalition is put to a vote (and where a new party chairman will be elected now), is scheduled for mid-November (Nov. 14 to Nov. 16). Angela Merkel was supposed to take office then on November 22.

But there are also rumours about an alternative plan of the CDU to hold early elections on March 26. The FDP is calling for a "Jamaica coalition" of CDU/CSU, FDP, and the Greens again. Meanwhile, there is some pressure from within the SPD that the entire board of the party should resign after this debacle.

[Umengus]

The grand coalition will be a failure. No doubt on it.

[minionofmidas]

German politics is reminding me more and more of a country not a million mouseclicks away from this board.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ironically, this could weaken the SPD's left in the end. Müntefering is very popular among party members and the general reaction could be something like "Oh my, god, they've killed Münte! You bastards!".

It's all the "fault" of the party's left now. And it isn't really certain anymore that Andrea Nahles will become secretary-general in the end. With forcing Müntefering to resign she effectively shot herself in the foot.

Perhaps this was all Müntefering's plan in the first place: Making himself a martyr, driving the SPD's left into the role of the bad guys, and therefore neutralizing them as a political force.



Btw, it's now more or less official that Edmund Stoiber will stay in Munich. The whole Müntefering affair is probably a convenient excuse for him. In the last few weeks he found out that it isn't such fun after all to serve in the federal cabinet. Perhaps it's the best solution. Stoiber was acting like a real asshole, lately.

[minionofmidas]

Doubt it.

[minionofmidas]

What I meant was, doubt that was Müntefering's plan, not doubt that that's a possible outcome. Have you seen Heute yesterday, especially the comment? Full of untruths.

And it's starting to look as if Stoiber's not going to Berlin after all.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What I meant was, doubt that was Müntefering's plan, not doubt that that's a possible outcome.

Just a theory. I'm trying to make some sense out of this whole chaos.

Schröder and Müntefering have tried to bring Platzeck into position for a possible run for Chancellor in 2009 since the start of the coalition talks. And now he is likely to become SPD chairman. In addition, the SPD's left is now discredited before they even had the chance to raise their voice against the grand coalition.

On the other hand, because of the ongoing coalition talks this would really bad timing to do something like this now. And for at least some time this will weaken the SPD's strength/position/popularity.

Have you seen Heute yesterday, especially the comment? Full of untruths.

Nope.

[WMS]

German politics is reminding me more and more of a country not a million mouseclicks away from this board.

Atlasia, by chance?