German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Jarl]

Some remarks on the geographic distribution of political parties.

I have my own experience about Low Saxony north west germany.

The division to rural and urban does not make difference in that state. The CDU is very strong in catholic Olldenburger Münsterland
(that darker blue seat  second next to Dutch border. Contrary Friesland (the most north western seat in country)) that is pretty rural two is allways very SPD.  In Göttingen area that I know best catholic cities like Duderstadt are CDU even in Heydays of Schroeder.

The most of state seems rather bellwether area.

 

[Old Europe]

Some remarks on the geographic distribution of political parties.

I have my own experience about Low Saxony north west germany.

The division to rural and urban does not make difference in that state. The CDU is very strong in catholic Olldenburger Münsterland
(that darker blue seat  second next to Dutch border. Contrary Friesland (the most north western seat in country)) that is pretty rural two is allways very SPD.  In Göttingen area that I know best catholic cities like Duderstadt are CDU even in Heydays of Schroeder.

The most of state seems rather bellwether area.

 

That´s correct. Of course my remarks consisted of generalizations of voting behaviour.

In addition to a urban/rural divide there´s also a catholic/protestant divide, with catholics voting for CDU/CSU more often than protestants ( who are leaning more to the SPD). This is of course a generalization too.

[Old Europe]

States where the SPD did best in 2002:
1) Bremen (48.6%)
2) Lower Saxony (47.8%)
3) Brandenburg (46.4%)

States where the SPD did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (26.1%)
2) Saxony (33.3%)
3) Baden-Württemberg (33.5%)




States where the CDU/CSU did best in 2002:
1) Bavaria (58.6%)
2) Baden-Württemberg (42.8%)
3) Rhineland-Palatinate (40.2%)

States where the CDU/CSU did worst in 2002:
1) Brandenburg (22.3%)
2) Bremen (24.5%)
3) Berlin (25.9%)




States where the Greens did best in 2002:
1) Hamburg (16.2%)
2) Bremen (15.0%)
3) Berlin (14.6%)

States where the Greens did worst in 2002:
1) Saxony-Anhalt (3.4%)
2) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (3.5%)
3) Thuringia (4.3%)




States where the FDP did best in 2002:
1) North Rhine-Westphalia & Rhineland-Palatinate (both 9.3%)
2) Hesse (8.2%)
3) Schleswig-Holstein (8.0%)

States where the FDP did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (4.5%)
2) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (5.4%)
3) Brandenburg (5.8%)




States where the PDS did best in 2002:
1) Brandenburg (17.2%)
2) Thuringia (17.0%)
3) Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (16.3%)

States where the PDS did worst in 2002:
1) Bavaria (0.7%)
2) Baden-Württemberg (0.9%)
3) Lower Saxony & Rhineland-Palatinate (both 1.0%)




For a map with the location of the states: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_Germany

[Cubby]

Thanks for the information and maps Old Europe. Its funny how Bavaria is so overwhelmingly CDU/SU. Someone I who has been there called it the "Texas of Germany".

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

I wonder what the point of the FDP is. Is it a protestant or secular version of the CDU? They are both center-right parties if I remember correctly.

[Old Europe]

Thanks for the information and maps Old Europe. Its funny how Bavaria is so overwhelmingly CDU/SU. Someone I who has been there called it the "Texas of Germany".

How true. Although the "Bible Belt of Germany" would probably fit it even better.

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

No, not really, considering how secular the east is. I would say that Saxony´s support for the CDU stems mainly from the popularity of the first minister-president (prime minister) after the end of the GDR, Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who governed the state from 1990 to 2002. He basically turned Saxony into a CDU stronghold. Interestingly, the CDU lost its absolute majority (+50%) in the first state election after Biedenkopf´s resignation. So, we will have too see whether Saxony will stay so strongly pro-CDU in the future or not.

I wonder what the point of the FDP is. Is it a protestant or secular version of the CDU? They are both center-right parties if I remember correctly.

No, I wouldn´t say so. Speaking in American terms, the FDP is basically a libertarian party, although a moderate one (compared to the U.S. Libertarian Party). The FDP is also often seen as the party of "the well off", despite past efforts to change this image.

[Banana Republic]

Is the FDP as economically conservative as the GOP claims to be?

[Old Europe]

Is the FDP as economically conservative as the GOP claims to be?

I have no idea what the GOP claims, but I can confirm that the FDP is probably the most conservative (or libertarian) party on economic issues in Germany.

[Old Europe]

Some news from the campaign:

1) The chances of an alliance between PDS and WASG have decreased. The WASG wants too see a formal merger of both parties before the election, while the PDS thinks there´s not enough time left for such a process. Instead, WASG candidates should run on the PDS´s list, a suggestion which is opposed by the WASG.

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

No, not really, considering how secular the east is. I would say that Saxony´s support for the CDU stems mainly from the popularity of the first minister-president (prime minister) after the end of the GDR, Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who governed the state from 1990 to 2002. He basically turned Saxony into a CDU stronghold. Interestingly, the CDU lost its absolute majority (+50%) in the first state election after Biedenkopf´s resignation. So, we will have too see whether Saxony will stay so strongly pro-CDU in the future or not.

Same thing with the CDU districts in the NE corner of the state...Berndt Seite and Angela Merkel forged loyalties there.
The CDU district in Thuringia, though, is due to the religious divide. That's the one major Catholic area in the East.

[Cubby]

Some news from the campaign:

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

If they want to form a coalition why would they deliberately antagonize another party? Does a grand coalition mean CDU+SPD or is it between all the parties?

Its sad to see the famous "Red/Green" Coalition breakup this way

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Some news from the campaign:

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

If they want to form a coalition why would they deliberately antagonize another party? Does a grand coalition mean CDU+SPD or is it between all the parties?

Its sad to see the famous "Red/Green" Coalition breakup this way

"Grand Coalition" means CDU and SPD.

[You were once a gentleman]

What's WASG? I'm under the impression this is the party I'd vote for, although it'd probably depend on what district I lived in.

I actually do have a little bit of Germany ancestry from my mother's side, her maiden name was "Ebert". Is that a German name? Sounds like it could be but I'm not sure. And if so can you identify what region it'd be from? I'm assuming it'd be one of the Catholic ones with her being raised Catholic.

[the sweetness of chai and the palliative effects of facts]

Ebert is a German name. Most Germans' names can't be clued to a region. Tho' the most famous Ebert in German history was certainly a Protestant. Friedrich Ebert, Social Democrat President of Germany from 1919 to 1925.

[Old Europe]

What's WASG? I'm under the impression this is the party I'd vote for, although it'd probably depend on what district I lived in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WASG

[Old Europe]

News:

1) "Ceasefire" between SPD and Greens: The recriminations between the two parties came to a halt and relations within the governing coalition have improved a bit this week.

2) According to recent polls the CDU/CSU could win a absolute majority (more than 50% of the seats) in the election, thus eleminating the necessity of a coalition with the FDP. Of course, you should keep in mind that the CDU/CSU often held a absolute majority in opinion polls, but only for one time in reality... back in 1957. Meaning: Until election day the CDU´s numbers could (and probably will) have dropped by some points.

3) Today, Gregor Gysi officially announced his attention to run as the PDS´s main candidate, which probably increases the chance for the  return of the party into the Bundestag. Nothing new from the WASG however.