German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Information on the German electoral system (in English):
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/bundestag.htm


German election results, 1949-2002:
http://www.parties-and-elections.de/germany.html
http://www.election.de/hist/hist_brd.html


Latest national polls:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=btw_sf


News on the election in English:
http://www.dw-world.de/election05
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,k-6712,00.html


Most important parties contesting in the 2005 election:
--> SPD
--> CDU + CSU
--> Greens
--> FDP
--> Left Party (in alliance with WASG)
--> NPD (in alliance with DVU)


Main candidates of the major parties:
SPD - Gerhard Schröder
CDU/CSU - Angela Merkel
Greens - Joschka Fischer
FDP -  Guido Westerwelle
Left Party - Gregor Gysi + Oskar Lafontaine

[Jake]

Wow, this is awesome. Thanks for the heads up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thread stickied. Post polls etc. here

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wow, this is awesome. Thanks for the heads up.

Yeah, it was a huge surprise. Apparently Schröder and Müntefering didn´t inform anyone in their own party or in the Greens about this possibility.


The latest national poll results can be found here:

http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/showpoll.pl?name=btw_sf

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early predictions?

[Emsworth]

I certainly did not expect this. I have little expertise on German poltics, but from what I read, the result was even more disastrous for Schröder than expected.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gotta admit that from a U.K perspective this seems weird...

[Middle-aged Europe]

At the moment it seems that the North Rhine-Westphalia election will repeat itself on national level this fall. Most likely we will see a CDU/FDP coalition government.

The CDU/CSU will now rush to formally nominate Angela Merkel as their candidate for chancellor as soon as possible.

I certainly did not expect this.

Me neither.

I have little expertise on German poltics, but from what I read, the result was even more disastrous for Schröder than expected.

Well, not really. In the last days before the election some suspected that the SPD could pull a surprise victory, but the in the last poll the CDU stood at 43% and the SPD at 36% (actual result: CDU 45%, SPD 37%). Both the FDP and the Greens did relatively bad though.

Gotta admit that from a U.K perspective this seems weird...

I don´t think you would find a precedence for this in German history either.   But just imagine the Tories would win both the Scottish and and Welsh regional elections at the same time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But just imagine the Tories would win both the Scottish and and Welsh regional elections at the same time...

Pigs would be flying

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pigs would be flying

Hey, after all NRW was considered THE SPD stronghold, governed by them for the last 40 years. Only a few years ago it would have been considered totally absurd that the CDU could win an election there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey, after all NRW was considered THE SPD stronghold, governed by them for the last 40 years. Only a few years ago it would have been considered totally absurd that the CDU could win an election there.

In Westminster elections the last time the Tories won the most votes in Scotland was back in the '50's (they might have been second in seats though). Last time the Tories won the most seats in Wales... er... well... maybe 1900. Not sure about that... if not then it was in the 19th Century.

The nearest parrallel I can think of with the SPD calling an election now, would be Wilson calling an election in 1968... just after Labour were all but wiped out in local (council) elections; no councillers in Birmingham for one thing. Tories even won the Scotswood ward in Newcastle...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The nearest parrallel I can think of with the SPD calling an election now, would be Wilson calling an election in 1968... just after Labour were all but wiped out in local (council) elections; no councillers in Birmingham for one thing. Tories even won the Scotswood ward in Newcastle...

Yeah, like I said, that´s very unusual for Germany. Somehow it even seems that Schröder "stole" the idea of calling an election from Britain.


What will (probably!) happen next:

Schröder will call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, which he willl deliberately lose. The constitution states that the president is able to call an early election in the case that this happens. So, it would be up to Köhler. Because he´s from the CDU he will probably be under a lot of pressure from his own party to comply. So much to the theory. We will see what will really happen in the next weeks.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Did turkish immigration play a role in the election?

[Angel of Death]

It will be interesting to see whether the PDS will regain "proportionalizing" seats. It might even make any two-party coalition besides a grand one impossible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Did turkish immigration play a role in the election?

In NRW? Not much, if at all. This election was mainly about the issues of "unemployment" and "economy".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, like I said, that´s very unusual for Germany.

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Thanks for the prompt answer.

I suspect turkish immigration will play a significant role in the federal election.

[Beet]

Constrast Schroeder's behavior with Berlusconi's-- the one voluntarily giving up power a year ahead of time, even deliberately losing a vote of confidence, the other scrambling to hell and back to stay in the PM spot for as long as possible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constrast Schroeder's behavior with Berlusconi's-- the one voluntarily giving up power a year ahead of time, even deliberately losing a vote of confidence, the other scrambling to hell and back to stay in the PM spot for as long as possible.

Now Berlusconi is acting just like John Major towards the end

[Beet]

Constrast Schroeder's behavior with Berlusconi's-- the one voluntarily giving up power a year ahead of time, even deliberately losing a vote of confidence, the other scrambling to hell and back to stay in the PM spot for as long as possible.

Now Berlusconi is acting just like John Major towards the end

Probably, don't know enough about that to say

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

I was actually refering to the characteristic of the British system that the Prime Minister often calls for an election before the end of the five-year term. Of course this is done when a PM is confident to WIN the election and not in the time of a crisis.

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

Perhaps he has a secret plan.

I was as much surprised by this decision as everyone else in Germany. Probably it´s a kind of "attack is the best form of defense". It was widely expected that the defeat in NRW would lead to a major ideological conflict within the SPD. There were even rumours of a split of the party´s parliamentary group. So, for Schröder it was a lose-lose situation anyway. And before the government is totally paralyzed by internal fightings he probably thought that he could call for new elections just as well. So, there´s at least a small chance to survive. That´s what I suspect.

I suspect turkish immigration will play a significant role in the federal election.

I doubt it. Also see my comment in the NRW topic. There´s currently a political talkshow on TV where today´s events are discussed. The politicians there are talking mainly about unemployment, the economy, and the state of the welfare state. I´m not sure if the term "immigration" was even mentioned once. In other words: We have more important things to do.

[CO-OWL]

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

I was actually refering to the characteristic of the British system that the Prime Minister often calls for an election before the end of the five-year term. Of course this is done when a PM is confident to WIN the election and not in the time of a crisis.

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

Perhaps he has a secret plan.

I was as much surprised by this decision as everyone else in Germany. Probably it´s a kind of "attack is the best form of defense". It was widely expected that the defeat in NRW would lead to a major ideological conflict within the SPD. There were even rumours of a split of the party´s parliamentary group. So, for Schröder it was a lose-lose situation anyway. And before the government is totally paralyzed by internal fightings he probably thought that he could call for new elections just as well. So, there´s at least a small chance to survive. That´s what I suspect.

Sounds like a good explanation to a very surprising development.
Schröder generally acts best, when he's under pressure...

I think he will try to make it a personality contest:
Schröder/Fischer vs. "GWB buddy" Merkel/"Political lightweight" Westerwelle (FDP chairman)

[Beet]

How exactly is the CDU supposed to be better for unemployment? I thought discontent with the SPD was due to its labor market reforms. If anything, the CDU would push those reforms even harder.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How exactly is the CDU supposed to be better for unemployment? I thought discontent with the SPD was due to its labor market reforms. If anything, the CDU would push those reforms even harder.

*shrug*

That's voters for you

[skybridge]

This is indeed very un-German to not have something caught up in bureaucracy, but instead to push something ahead. I don't see how this will benefit Schroeder though. Does he want to use the CDU's momentum against himself? Most of the German economic problems were caused by Kohl's (CDU) rushing re-unification, but it took the voters eight years to realize that as well. Some sort of reform is obviously needed, but as an opposition party, the CDU hasn't done any opposing at all! In 2002, the CDU actually got a fraction of a percent more votes than the SPD, but it was their coalition that saved the SPD. This time a CDU victory seems more likely, but what's the point of voting for the opposition that has done NOTHING to oppose what is so unpopular? However, if the race boils down to Merkel vs. Schroeder, Schroeder's personal popularity might still save him over Merkel's.