German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

Bloody hell

LOL


This happens when a party rises from 4% (last election) to 9% (current polls).


Of course you have to keep several things in mind:

1) Currently there´s a certain "PDS hype" because of the alliance between PDS and WASG and because both Gysi and Lafontaine are running for this alliance. In fact the PDS probably had more media coverage in last MONTH than in the three years before. This hype could come to an end at some point during the campaign. Especially after Lafontaine held some, eh, "controversial" speeches in the last week.

2) The PDS has received just 4.0% in the last election. You need at least 5.0% to get seats by proportional representation. As a result the PDS has held only two seats since the last election (both direct seats after winning two constituencies in Berlin).

3) The pollsters have started to throw PDS and WASG in the same hat now. What they´re not taking into account is that potential PDS and/or WASG voters who are outright opposing the alliance between the two parties could vote for some other party (or for no party at all) in the end.

[WMS]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

Bloody hell

What Al said. I loathe the PDS...bloody ex-East German Communists...

[Cubby]

The June 13th issue of Newsweek surprisingly had a half page article on Angela Merkel titled "A Radical Change Agent".

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey, who "wears jeans, listens to western music and is a practicing Lutheran" and "is grateful to America for helping to defeat communism".

The main point seemed to be that she'd be a great improvement over Schroeder, and would act in America's interests. The first paragraph about her being a rebel in the Commie East Germany of her youth is especially hokey.

[minionofmidas]

'Specially since she wasn't.

[Bono]

'Specially since she wasn't.

LOL

[minionofmidas]

She actually moved to East Germany as a kid in the 50's with her parents. She was born in Hamburg.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The June 13th issue of Newsweek surprisingly had a half page article on Angela Merkel titled "A Radical Change Agent".

Well, maybe only "A Moderate Change Agent"...

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

... who "wears jeans, ...

When? Well, I can´t rule it out, but on the other hand I can´t recall an occasion where she wore jeans. Do they have proof?

... listens to western music ...

What do they mean with "western music"? As in "Country & Western" or just "music from the western world"?

If "Country & Western": LMAO... this is one is certainly new for me.
If "music from the western world": Well, everybody does... big deal. It would be a shocking revelation for me that Merkel does NOT listen to "western music".

... and is a practicing Lutheran"...

This might be a surprising fact considering that she´s from the secular east... and a member of the often Catholic-dominated CDU (but things change, I guess).

But it´s not that surprising considering that she´s the daughter of a Lutheran pastor.

..."is grateful to America for helping to defeat communism".

No idea if she said this or really thinks this.

The main point seemed to be that she'd be a great improvement over Schroeder, ...

Well, this has to be proven.

... and would act in America's interests.

Most of the time, yes. But don´t expect from her to send troops to Iraq anytime soon. And if I recall correctly, her stance on an EU membership of Turkey is in direct opposition to the Bush Administration´s plans for Turkey.

On the hand, Schröder once risked to get ousted by sending troops to Afghanistan. So, I guess, everything is relative.

The first paragraph about her being a rebel in the Commie East Germany of her youth is especially hokey.

Yeah, sure, I was one too, didn´t you know that?

I´ve watched an portrait about her on CNN this morning, where similar things where said. It seems the claim that she was "an anti-communist rebel" is based on the fact that she sung the socialist Internationale in English on one occasion in school.

[minionofmidas]

Sounds like a plea to the Soviet Union to pursue a more agressive foreign policy...so that Americans would soon all be singing the Internationale too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"wears jeans, listens to western music

the stupid thing about that is that's basically true of most Germans (and most western Europeans overall)

[WMS]

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

So, how many days are left until election day? Maybe Bush can squeeze in a round of bombing before then. You could always ask him...
Tongue firmly in cheek here ;-)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sounds like a plea to the Soviet Union to pursue a more agressive foreign policy...so that Americans would soon all be singing the Internationale too.

But after all it´s an evil imperialist language.

"wears jeans, listens to western music

the stupid thing about that is that's basically true of most Germans (and most western Europeans overall)

No, that´s just a myth.

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

So, how many days are left until election day? Maybe Bush can squeeze in a round of bombing before then. You could always ask him...
Tongue firmly in cheek here ;-)

In theory, 80 days from now.

[WMS]

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

So, how many days are left until election day? Maybe Bush can squeeze in a round of bombing before then. You could always ask him...
Tongue firmly in cheek here ;-)

In theory, 80 days from now.

Plenty of time.

[Cubby]

The June 13th issue of Newsweek surprisingly had a half page article on Angela Merkel titled "A Radical Change Agent".

Well, maybe only "A Moderate Change Agent"...

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

... who "wears jeans, ...

When? Well, I can´t rule it out, but on the other hand I can´t recall an occasion where she wore jeans. Do they have proof?

... listens to western music ...

What do they mean with "western music"? As in "Country & Western" or just "music from the western world"?

If "Country & Western": LMAO... this is one is certainly new for me.
If "music from the western world": Well, everybody does... big deal. It would be a shocking revelation for me that Merkel does NOT listen to "western music".

... and is a practicing Lutheran"...

This might be a surprising fact considering that she´s from the secular east... and a member of the often Catholic-dominated CDU (but things change, I guess).

But it´s not that surprising considering that she´s the daughter of a Lutheran pastor.

..."is grateful to America for helping to defeat communism".

No idea if she said this or really thinks this.

The main point seemed to be that she'd be a great improvement over Schroeder, ...

Well, this has to be proven.

... and would act in America's interests.

Most of the time, yes. But don´t expect from her to send troops to Iraq anytime soon. And if I recall correctly, her stance on an EU membership of Turkey is in direct opposition to the Bush Administration´s plans for Turkey.

On the hand, Schröder once risked to get ousted by sending troops to Afghanistan. So, I guess, everything is relative.

The first paragraph about her being a rebel in the Commie East Germany of her youth is especially hokey.

Yeah, sure, I was one too, didn´t you know that?

I´ve watched an portrait about her on CNN this morning, where similar things where said. It seems the claim that she was "an anti-communist rebel" is based on the fact that she sung the socialist Internationale in English on one occasion in school.

Old Europe: They meant she was listening to Western (Capitalist/Democracy) music from the free side of the Iron Curtain. The incident they refer to is when she was in school in East Germany. I guess during the Cold War people there and in other Soviet Bloc countries weren't supposed to like American, French, etc. music.

[minionofmidas]

It's not as if it was brutally repressed either. Not even in the Soviet Union. It was sort of hard to get, but of course that just made it more popular.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Old Europe: They meant she was listening to Western (Capitalist/Democracy) music from the free side of the Iron Curtain. The incident they refer to is when she was in school in East Germany. I guess during the Cold War people there and in other Soviet Bloc countries weren't supposed to like American, French, etc. music.

Ah, I see. Well, practically everyone did, provided you knew where to get it from. My parents listened to "western music" too during that time. My parents also wore jeans. Does this qualify them to hold the office of Chancellor too?



Btw, Schröder just lost the vote of confidence in the Bundestag as it was planned. Now it´s up to President Köhler to dissolve the parliament and call for early elections. If he does so then the issue will go to the Constitutional Court first, because some MPs are planning to file suit against the way early elections were made possible (by "faking" a defeat in the vote of confidence).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, the standard left wing line.

When you're going to lose an election, go to court.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New seat projection (in brackets the changes to last week´s projection, total number of seats may vary because of "overhang mandates"):

CDU/CSU 285 (-6)
SPD 168  (+2)
PDS/WASG 62 (+6)
Greens 49 (+-0)
FDP 43 (+-0)

Seats needed for majority: 304
Seats held by CDU/CSU + FDP: 328

Source: election.de


I´m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They´re totally unpredictable for me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

[minionofmidas]

New seat projection (in brackets the changes to last week´s projection, total number of seats may vary because of "overhang mandates"):

CDU/CSU 285 (-6)
SPD 168  (+2)
PDS/WASG 62 (+6)
Greens 49 (+-0)
FDP 43 (+-0)

Seats needed for majority: 304
Seats held by CDU/CSU + FDP: 328

Source: election.de


I´m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They´re totally unpredictable for me.

Pollsters are saying the same - and about the SPD as well...

[WMS]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What Al said, since I like both the CDU and the SPD, at least in part.

[minionofmidas]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What Al said, since I like both the CDU and the SPD, at least in part.

In that case, you should actually rejoice at the PDS strength - as it means you'll likely get a Grand Coalition of the two of them.

Support for the CDU is slipping in the polls, while that for the PDS is rising. This is not (or mostly not) caused by people drifting from the CDU to the PDS though. Voters are simply making up their minds. The CDU isn't gaining any new voters. The PDS is gaining lots and lots, while SPD, Greens and FDP are only gaining small numbers. A third remains undecided. CDU & FDP are still polling at more than SPD & Greens & PDS, but it's looking more and more like it once again won't be enough.
   
Current polls...
CDU 43
FDP 7 (together, these two have lost 5 points in as many weeks)
SPD 27
Greens 8
PDS 11       
other 4

61% say, yep, a change of government would do Germany good.
64% say they expect the elections to result in a CDU-FDP government. (I'm not agreeing anymore, although of course it might still happen.)
If we'd have direct presidential elections, 47% would vote for Schröder, 37% for Merkel, the remainder for none of these.
Asking who was better for what got some interesting result, as well as clear gains for Schröder over one month ago.
Who'd be better for "the economy" Merkel 52 - Schröder 26
For creating employment Merkel 38 - Schröder 27 (notice the large none of these, or no difference vote.)
Who'd be better to solve the country's problems at large Merkel 30 - Schröder 20 (yeah, even higher. Apathy Rules!)
Who's better for foreign policy - Schröder 59 - Merkel 24

[WMS]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What Al said, since I like both the CDU and the SPD, at least in part.

In that case, you should actually rejoice at the PDS strength - as it means you'll likely get a Grand Coalition of the two of them.

Support for the CDU is slipping in the polls, while that for the PDS is rising. This is not (or mostly not) caused by people drifting from the CDU to the PDS though. Voters are simply making up their minds. The CDU isn't gaining any new voters. The PDS is gaining lots and lots, while SPD, Greens and FDP are only gaining small numbers. A third remains undecided. CDU & FDP are still polling at more than SPD & Greens & PDS, but it's looking more and more like it once again won't be enough.
   
Current polls...
CDU 43
FDP 7 (together, these two have lost 5 points in as many weeks)
SPD 27
Greens 8
PDS 11       
other 4

61% say, yep, a change of government would do Germany good.
64% say they expect the elections to result in a CDU-FDP government. (I'm not agreeing anymore, although of course it might still happen.)
If we'd have direct presidential elections, 47% would vote for Schröder, 37% for Merkel, the remainder for none of these.
Asking who was better for what got some interesting result, as well as clear gains for Schröder over one month ago.
Who'd be better for "the economy" Merkel 52 - Schröder 26
For creating employment Merkel 38 - Schröder 27 (notice the large none of these, or no difference vote.)
Who'd be better to solve the country's problems at large Merkel 30 - Schröder 20 (yeah, even higher. Apathy Rules!)
Who's better for foreign policy - Schröder 59 - Merkel 24

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany), I'd be willing to have the PDS do well enough to force a Grand Coalition. Otherwise, I might as well back a CDU-FDP alliance.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

[WMS]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

like I said, it's all Bush, nothing more.