German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[WMS]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

like I said, it's all Bush, nothing more.

Then they need to stop personalizing their policy so much. It was one thing not to agree with the Iraq War, it was another to take a large role in actively trying to thwart the U.S. (instead of standing aside in neutrality)...

[minionofmidas]

There's more to that 59-24 score than just being pro or anti American.
For one thing, people tend to trust incumbents more than bloody rookies on foreign policy, and they're quite right to. Kohl had better ratings on foreign policy than on anything domestic in 1998.
For another thing, the CDU is sending very much mixed messages in the field, and nobody knows where Angela Merkel really stands, or whether she herself knows where she stands.

[WMS]

There's more to that 59-24 score than just being pro or anti American.
For one thing, people tend to trust incumbents more than bloody rookies on foreign policy, and they're quite right to. Kohl had better ratings on foreign policy than on anything domestic in 1998.
For another thing, the CDU is sending very much mixed messages in the field, and nobody knows where Angela Merkel really stands, or whether she herself knows where she stands.

There is?

I believe the question isn't so much where Merkel stands, it's where she stands in relation to the rest of the CDU...

[minionofmidas]

Mierscheid's Law

Mierscheid's law states that the SPD result in a federal election is a function of the index of steel production in Germany in the year the election is held - take the index value as a percentage, and with only one exception (1957 IIRC) the SPD result is within 3 percentage points of it. Once in the 70s, it was spot on. In 1998, it was off by 0.1.
Mierscheid's law was first publicised in a jocular article in the SPD's party newspaper in 1983, signed "Jakob Mierscheid, MdB" [Member of Parliament]. Mierscheid himself never existed, but his law holds.

This year, however, either Mierscheid's law will be spectacularly wrong, or the SPD will rally dramatically, or there won't be an election after all (still theroretically possible) or steel production will pretty much cease in a month or so - the current prognosis for the index at year's end is about 45, while the SPD is polling at less than thirty percent.

[skybridge]

Mierscheid's Law

Mierscheid's law states that the SPD result in a federal election is a function of the index of steel production in Germany in the year the election is held - take the index value as a percentage, and with only one exception (1957 IIRC) the SPD result is within 3 percentage points of it. Once in the 70s, it was spot on. In 1998, it was off by 0.1.
Mierscheid's law was first publicised in a jocular article in the SPD's party newspaper in 1983, signed "Jakob Mierscheid, MdB" [Member of Parliament]. Mierscheid himself never existed, but his law holds.

This year, however, either Mierscheid's law will be spectacularly wrong, or the SPD will rally dramatically, or there won't be an election after all (still theroretically possible) or steel production will pretty much cease in a month or so - the current prognosis for the index at year's end is about 45, while the SPD is polling at less than thirty percent.

You might you vote for, Lewis?

[minionofmidas]

Zweitstimme - 99.odd % Green.
Erststimme - undecided. Last time I wasted it on the PDS candidate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mierscheid plans to leave the SPD!!!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,364900,00.html (in German)

[minionofmidas]

Mierscheid plans to leave the SPD!!!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,364900,00.html (in German)

That would make more sense if he'd join the CDU.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Mierscheid plans to leave the SPD!!!

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,364900,00.html (in German)

Funny, I didn't think today was 1 April...

[minionofmidas]

Ah yes, it's mentioned in the article. Mierscheid's Law hasn't held since 49 with one exception in 57, as I  reported above. It has merely held since 61 with one exception in 1990.

[minionofmidas]

Nice graphic on poll movement

[Middle-aged Europe]

New seat projection (in brackets the changes to the last projection from two weeks ago):

CDU/CSU - 283 (-2)
SPD - 170 (+2)
PDS/WASG - 62 (+-0)
Greens - 50 (+1)
FDP - 44 (+1)

Seats needed for majority: 305
Seats held by CDU/CSU + FDP: 327


source: election.de

[they don't love you like i love you]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

[Colin]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

It's not that hard to do that really. I don't think the FDP has gotten above 8% in an election since the 1980's, IIRC. When you combine one party that was polling at 5% and another that was polling at 3% you're going to get a party that is polling around 8%. It's simple addition. While they have picked up support recently, I believe their up to 11% now, the PDS, well it really isn't the PDS anymore, is only doing well because of a complete dislike of Schröder on the left. I actually find it more suprising, but not completely suprising, that the PDS-WASG or whatever the heck their calling themselves now is polling ahead of the Greens. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's not that hard to do that really. I don't think the FDP has gotten above 8% in an election since the 1980's, IIRC.

They got 11% in 1990, but this was mainly because of the reunification and the popularity of then-foreign minister and FDP leader Hans-Dietrich Genscher.

When you combine one party that was polling at 5% and another that was polling at 3% you're going to get a party that is polling around 8%. It's simple addition. While they have picked up support recently, I believe their up to 11% now, the PDS, well it really isn't the PDS anymore, is only doing well because of a complete dislike of Schröder on the left.

Well... sort of, but that´s not all. Since the idea of an PDS/WASG alliance came into existence they´ve received hell of a lot media attention (although not always positive one). In addition, Oskar Lafontaine, who is still a BIG name (he was the SPD´s candidate for Chancellor in 1990 after all), is apparently mobilizing a lot of support. And they´re now at 12% according to the latest poll.

I actually find it more suprising, but not completely suprising, that the PDS-WASG or whatever the heck their calling themselves now is polling ahead of the Greens. 

Not that surprising. To large extents they probably have totally different electorates. The PDS/WASG is running as a populist protest party trying to garner the votes of politically disaffected voters, long-term unemployed people etc. The average Green voter on the other hand is either better educated and/or more well off than the average PDS voter. And the average Green is probably also not very fond of Lafontaine´s new anti-immigration message. So, the PDS/WASG and the Greens have not that much in common. The composition of the Green electorate is perhaps even closer to that of the FDP than to that of the PDS.

Btw, the PDS is planning to rename itself into "The Left Party." (or "The Leftist Party.") tomorrow on its national convention.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, it´s done.


Full official name: Die Linkspartei.PDS (The Left Party.PDS)

Official abbreviation: Die Linke.PDS (The Left.PDS)

Unofficial (but widespread) designation: Linkspartei (Left Party)

Party logo:



Same party, three different names. Confusing.

[minionofmidas]

Well, it´s done.


Full official name: Die Linkspartei.PDS (The Left Party.PDS)

Official abbreviation: Die Linke.PDS (The Left.PDS)

Inofficial (but widespread) designation: Linkspartei (Left Party)

Party logo:



Same party, three different names. Confusing.

I think they need a few more names.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm assuming that that would be "The Left Party, PDS" if used in America and the period is because of the European writing of usings periods and commas the opposite as Americans do?

Even though I like the look of a period here better than a comma, I still think it looks really dumb when a comma is used for a decimal point.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'm assuming that that would be "The Left Party, PDS" if used in America and the period is because of the European writing of usings periods and commas the opposite as Americans do?

Even though I like the look of a period here better than a comma, I still think it looks really dumb when a comma is used for a decimal point.

No, I doubt that... they´re simply thinking that this looks cool, modern and stylish. At least it´s supposed to look cool, modern and stylish.    I wonder if they paid a PR company or if they came up with the idea themself.

And we´re also using periods at the end of sentences here.

[WMS]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

Chances of the CDU/CSU not being in the next government (either with the FDP or the SPD): approximately 0. I can't lose.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I just noticed that the German magazine "Der Spiegel" has a special about the elections on its international website... mostly a collection of articles in English:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,k-6712,00.html



There´s also an English version of the poll movement graph Lewis posted last week:

http://www.spiegel.de/flash/0,5532,11564,00.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

President Köhler has dissolved the Bundestag yesterday evening and called for early elections on September 18.

Next round: The Constitutional Court. Werner Schulz (Greens) and Jelena Hoffmann (SPD), two members of the Bundestag, are still planning to file suit against the early elections... or rather against the (constitutionally disputed) way early elections were made possible.

From my point of view it´s unlikely that they are going to be very successful with their suit. However, it would certainly be, um..., interesting to see the Constitutional Court cancelling the election in the midst of the campaign.


So, what else is new? According to the polls, the Left Party (PDS 2.0) is still the strongest party in the east and the third largest party (behind CDU/CSU and SPD) nationally. A very interesting fact is that the Left Party polls now at 20% in the Saarland (where Oskar Lafontaine has been the prime minister from 1985 to 1998). Nevertheless it´s still a rather sensational result for the ex-PDS in a western state.

The CDU/FDP majority in the polls has also shrinked even further. So, say hello to the grand coalition (provided that the Left Party does not implode somewhere down the road, which is at least a possibility).

[Math]

Do you think that the new alliance PDS-WASG will be really durable? This kind of creation makes me think for example of the British SDP, which made sission with the Labour in 1983.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do you think that the new alliance PDS-WASG will be really durable?

Good question. Many people here wonder the same. Only time will tell, I guess. PDS/Left Party and WASG are planning to formally merge into a new party in about two years, but it´s also possible that the whole thing will break apart at some point shortly after the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the polling numbers in all the states?