German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Middle-aged Europe]

What are the polling numbers in all the states?

State-by-state poll numbers aren´t released on a regular basis. Separate numbers for the east are now released because the election there has become a close race between the CDU and the Left Party. And the Saarland numbers were probably only made public because of the sensational result of the Left Party there.


National numbers:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Numbers for the east only:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ost.htm

Numbers for the west only:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/west.htm

Numbers for separate states:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm

[minionofmidas]

CDU/FDP but one point ahead of SPD/Greens/Linkspartei. One third of 2002 voters undecided or leaning nowhere, most of them former SPD voters. Unless somebody on the left (thinks of...er...say...Schleswig Holstein, curses), the gig for the FDP getting into government is pretty much up. Which even my CDU-member boardgame-playing mate Achim agrees is definitely a good thing. (Then again he's also quite active in the cyclists' lobbying club ADFC, so he's hardly typical of a CDU member.)
If the Linkspartei bubble (they're polling at 8% in the West, ahead of the FDP though behind the Greens.) were to explode before the election, expect those votes to go straight to the SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Hoffmann and Schulz are not the first to sue against these new elections, though.
The Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany feels at a disadvantage in obtaining the required handful of signatures to get on the ballot due to the early elections, and wants the number lowered.
The Initative Pro DM (yeah, the guys that allowed Schill to run on their list after his own club wouldn't have him anymore) not only echoes these sentiments, but would also like to have the 5% threshold abolished or lowered on account of the early elections. Whatever rocks their boat...
The APPD is in a sense my favorite party even though I've never voted for them, btw. Whenever they win enough votes to get some money back from the government (.5% in federal and european elections, 1% in most [or all, I'm not sure] states, they bash it all on a big free beer party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

If the Linkspartei bubble (they're polling at 8% in the West, ahead of the FDP though behind the Greens.) were to explode before the election, expect those votes to go straight to the SPD.

Either to the SPD or back to the place where they came from: nowhere (= non-voters).

Hoffmann and Schulz are not the first to sue against these new elections, though.

The main difference is that the lawsuits of the APPD and Pro DM wouldn´t prevent or delay the elections. I think the demand of the APPD is just reasonable and fair (although it isn´t exactly a very, eh, reasonable party), because there is indeed not much time left for the minor parties to get on the ballot.

The APPD is in a sense my favorite party even though I've never voted for them, btw.

You´re in favor of splitting Germany into a "asocial parasite zone", a "safe occupation zone" and "violence experience parks"??   Which one of the three zones would you choose then?

[Umengus]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

Chances of the CDU/CSU not being in the next government (either with the FDP or the SPD): approximately 0. I can't lose.

An nlliance between CDU and SPD would be a good thing for "die.linke-WASG" because I think that  lots of SPS voters would refuse to vote for SPD if there will be a SPS-CDU coalition after elections. Just my opinion...

[Middle-aged Europe]

An nlliance between CDU and SPD would be a good thing for "die.linke-WASG" because I think that  lots of SPS voters would refuse to vote for SPD if there will be a SPS-CDU coalition after elections. Just my opinion...

I don´t know. To quote Franz Müntefering: "Opposition is crap". Being in a coalition with the CDU is better than being in no governing coalition at all. You are underestimating the pragmatism of the average SPD voter.

And traditional SPD supporters who refuse to vote for the Left Party now, will probably never vote for the Left Party. It´s nearly impossible that the SPD will become even more unpopular, no matter whether they are in a grand coalition or not.

But the Left Party would still benefit from a grand coalition (same could be said about Greens/FDP, although to a lesser extent). Being in the opposition "is crap", but it always helps your poll numbers, because you don´t have to make unpopular decisions. Why do you think CDU/CSU are currently in the lead?

Of course, it would be a heck of alot easier for the Left Party to present itself as the "social(ist) alternative" to those hideous "neo-liberals" with the SPD in power, be it as the junior partner of the CDU.

[minionofmidas]

If the Linkspartei bubble (they're polling at 8% in the West, ahead of the FDP though behind the Greens.) were to explode before the election, expect those votes to go straight to the SPD.

Either to the SPD or back to the place where they came from: nowhere (= non-voters).

Hoffmann and Schulz are not the first to sue against these new elections, though.

The main difference is that the lawsuits of the APPD and Pro DM wouldn´t prevent or delay the elections. I think the demand of the APPD is just reasonable and fair (although it isn´t exactly a very, eh, reasonable party), because there is indeed not much time left for the minor parties to get on the ballot.

The APPD is in a sense my favorite party even though I've never voted for them, btw.

You´re in favor of splitting Germany into a "asocial parasite zone", a "safe occupation zone" and "violence experience parks"??   Which one of the three zones would you choose then?

Inner Frankfurt already is in an asocial parasite zone.

[freek]

I'm assuming that that would be "The Left Party, PDS" if used in America and the period is because of the European writing of usings periods and commas the opposite as Americans do?

Even though I like the look of a period here better than a comma, I still think it looks really dumb when a comma is used for a decimal point.

Only in numbers there is a difference in the use of comma and periods between Americans and Europeans. Not in texts.

I think they used a period here to make it look like a URL, so it looks modern and new. In the oldfashioned way, the new combination might have been called Die Linke-PDS or Die Linke/PDS.

[freek]

The Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany feels at a disadvantage in obtaining the required handful of signatures to get on the ballot due to the early elections, and wants the number lowered.

How much is a handful in this case?

[minionofmidas]

The Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany feels at a disadvantage in obtaining the required handful of signatures to get on the ballot due to the early elections, and wants the number lowered.

How much is a handful in this case?

I've checked since, and it's not really a handful. It's not as bad as in Texas (view the Chris Bell trailing Kinky Friedman thread), but it's 2000 signatures per state to get on the ballot in that state, less for the 5 smallest states. For a direct candidacy, it's 200 signatures from the constituency.
Those parties with at least 1 Bundestag member or at least 5 Landtag members nationally are exempt.

[freek]

I've checked since, and it's not really a handful. It's not as bad as in Texas (view the Chris Bell trailing Kinky Friedman thread), but it's 2000 signatures per state to get on the ballot in that state, less for the 5 smallest states. For a direct candidacy, it's 200 signatures from the constituency.
Those parties with at least 1 Bundestag member or at least 5 Landtag members nationally are exempt.

Good Lord. It's 30 autographs per electoral district in the Netherlands (19 districts in total), and it was raised from 10 autographs per district only 7 years ago. But you have to place your autograph in city hall, not on the street or at home.

[minionofmidas]

I've checked since, and it's not really a handful. It's not as bad as in Texas (view the Chris Bell trailing Kinky Friedman thread), but it's 2000 signatures per state to get on the ballot in that state, less for the 5 smallest states. For a direct candidacy, it's 200 signatures from the constituency.
Those parties with at least 1 Bundestag member or at least 5 Landtag members nationally are exempt.

Good Lord. It's 30 autographs per electoral district in the Netherlands (19 districts in total), and it was raised from 10 autographs per district only 7 years ago. But you have to place your autograph in city hall, not on the street or at home.

We don't have that restriction.

[minionofmidas]

Fun with tactical voting and the German electoral system

It recently occurred to me that it might make sense for me to give my direct vote to the CDU candidate this september.
The SPD candidate for my constituency will be Gregor Ammann, a fat ugly sob running for Bundestag for the first time and very much a man from the party's right wing.
The CDU candidate for my constituency will be (just like three years ago) Markus Frank, an ugly sob and city councillor who doesn't seem worse than your average Christian Democrat.
Both men's position on their party list (Ammann: 20; Frank: 22) means they have to win directly to become MPs. If the SPD revives about as far as I think they will, the constituency should be way close.
Hessen has never produced Überhangmandate, so if Frank wins that means some other random CDU member, who might be better, might be worse, might make no difference, bites the dust. If Ammann wins that means some other random SPD member, who in all likelihood is better, bites the dust.
So doesn't it make sense for me to vote or Frank? Of course my all-important second vote is not going anywhere near his party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4717025.stm

[minionofmidas]

Unemployment has also been falling by even more than is usual this time of the year for the past two months. Of course this is largely due to the same essentially statistical blip that created the record high in the first place.

[jimrtex]

And we´re also using periods at the end of sentences here.

Except when you end them with semicolons and parentheses

[minionofmidas]

And we´re also using periods at the end of sentences here.

Except when you end them with semicolons and parentheses

Now a semicolon doesn't end a sentence; this is still the same sentence - and this too, btw.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

[Middle-aged Europe]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

*looks on his watch* Wow, this has been really fast.

Who cares about Iran anyway? More important are the questions whether Bavarians are really smarter than other Germans and whether East Germans should be allowed to vote in the election.

Advice for Schröder: In order to rise the SPD´s poll numbers it would be wiser right now to urge Bush to drop some bombs over Munich.

[CO-OWL]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

New seat projection

CDU/CSU 270
SPD 182
Left Party 62
Greens 50
FDP 43

Seats needed for a majority: 304
Seats held by CDU/CSU and FDP: 313

source: election.de


Not included is a possible "Stoiber backlash" for the CDU, which has yet to show its effects on the poll numbers. Just to show you what the current main "issue" of the election is: http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,369430,00.html
And no, we don´t have more important issues here, we could debate about.

[minionofmidas]

The question is - why is the shrewd old beast doing that? Has he given up all hope of Merkel becoming chancellor and is trying to ensure she loses worse than he did? Or does he merely fear that the CSU result of four years ago can't be maintained (no Bavarian is running for chancellor after all) and is trying to boost the CSU's relative strength compared to the CDU?

[Notre Dame rules!]

I don't see where his comments are out of line, at least anymore than Kerry's remarks that he could win the election without carfying a single Southern state.  Turns out that Kerry was wrong, though Stoiber may be more correct in his assessment.  Clearly the folks in the East are pining for their commie masters, as their rising poll numbers in the East indicate.  Stoiber is merely saying that he doesn't think the malcontents will determine the next Chancellor.  The 'prols' in the East would be well advised to vote for either the CDU or even the SPD if they ever want to get their half of the country back on track.  To continue to follow the road that lead them to ruin in the first place, really isn't that bright.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

[ag]

With the SPD slowly rising hopefully they can take back enough from the CDU/CSU and have an SPD/Left Party/Greens coalition.

No way. SPD themselves would rather go for the grand coalition than deal with the left.  You'd see CDU/FDP/Green or SDP/Green/FDP before you see anything with the left. Though in case of CDU/CSU/FDP government being impossible I would be betting on the grand coalition (with or without FDP and Greens).