German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

Wahlomat's up.
Cool maps. You need an SVG plugin though.

[minionofmidas]

Or you can just take my English translation of the Wahlomat that I'll post in a new thread in a couple of minutes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New seat projection

CDU/CSU 269
SPD 185
Left Party 55
Greens 49
FDP 49

Seats needed for a majority: 304
Seats held by CDU/CSU and FDP: 318


source: election.de

[Notre Dame rules!]

Lies have short legs...

The CDU needs to use that picture in all of their commercials

[Umengus]

Last forsa poll (1030, 09/5-6):

CDU: 42% (-1)
FDP: 6% (-1)

CDU+FDP=48%

SPD: 34% (+3)
Grune: 7% (=)
Die linke: 8% (-1)

SPD+Grune+die linke= 49%

First time that the potential left coalition would be stronger than the conservative-liberal coalition isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure (although it'd be more a tie than a lead if such a coalition was possible... can't see Schroeder and Lafontine in the same government for some reason...) but a Grand Coalition looks a definate possibility.

[minionofmidas]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

[Umengus]

A Grand coalition will not break the SPD? I suppose that lots of (maybe not a majority but many of them) SPD MP prefer a left coalition to a Grand coalition...

[minionofmidas]

A Grand coalition will not break the SPD? I suppose that lots of (maybe not a majority but many of them) SPD MP prefer a left coalition to a Grand coalition...

That wouldn't lead to a breakup of the party though. This isn't France. Our parties don't break up this easily.

[Bono]

Could there possibly be a CDU-FDP-Green coalition?

[minionofmidas]

No.

CDU-Green coalitions exist in a handful of places on the local level. They've pretty much everywhere led to a massive decline in the Green vote at the next elections. Nobody in either party wants such a coalition on the national level. If anything, you could get an SPD-Greens-FDP coalition - these have existed on a state level twice, in the early nineties - , but even that is highly unlikely.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

[minionofmidas]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

Sorry to say that, but that is very obvious rubbish.

[Umengus]

2 last polls

1) Emnid

3000, 09/05-07

CDU/CSU: 42% (=)
FDP: 7% (=)

SPD: 33% (+1)
Grune: 7% (=)
Linke PDS: 9% (=)

Sonstige: 2% (-1)

2) Infratest-dimap

1000, 09/06-07

CDU/CSU: 41% (-2)
FDP: 6,5% (+0,5)

SPD: 34% (+2)
Grune: 7% (=)
Linke-PDS: 8,5% (-0,5)

Sonstige: 3% (=)

[minionofmidas]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

Sorry to say that, but that is very obvious rubbish.

Guess I should explain that...

For one thing, unlike around 2001/2, the party is definitely not "sexy", in marketing speech, right now. Most undecideds right now (that did vote in 2002) are former SPD voters disappointed by the economic course of the government - the FDP is likely their least preference.
For another, they've always done worse when the CDU didn't seem to need them. Their worst result ever at a federal election was at the end of the previous Grand Coalition. Similar trends apply to state elections. The FDP has always gotten a lot of its vote from CDU/FDP supporters who split their vote in the only sensible way available (Of course quite recently the same has become true of the Greens...) and from downright CDU supporters who felt that the FDP needed some votes to be assured of representation.
Finally, people might be voting FDP rather than CDU to ensure an FDP/CDU coalition rather than a CDU/SPD one...in 2002, continuing (but by and large false) rumours about some leadership people in both parties favouring a SPD/FDP coalition probably led to the FDP losing about half a percentage point to the CDU and the SPD losing about half a percentage point to the Greens. Problem is, according to polls a grand coalition is the most popular option in Germany right now, not a CDU/FDP or SPD/Green coalition. That spells trouble for the FDP and to a lesser extent the Greens for the final weeks.

[Jens]

Fascinating who an election that looked like an utter defeat for the left actually looks like a very close run now. Any idea on the possiblilty on a Grüne-Links-SPD coalition?

[freek]

Any idea on the possiblilty on a Grüne-Links-SPD coalition?

Defect from the SPD and form a coalition with them a few months later? Sounds unlikely to me.

And I don't think that many West Germans would enjoy a government with the SED PDS Linkspartei either.

[ag]

Fascinating who an election that looked like an utter defeat for the left actually looks like a very close run now. Any idea on the possiblilty on a Grüne-Links-SPD coalition?

SPD leadership would, definitely, prefer a grand coalition with CDU.  I suspect the same about the Greens. Chances of the "Left" being in government after this election are no greater than would have been the chances of NPD if they could, arithmetically, form a majority with CDU and FDP. That is, they are precisely zero.

[Umengus]

Last polls

1) Emnid

No details on the poll at this hour.

CDU/CSU: 40,5% (-1,5)
FDP: 7% (=)

SPD: 34,5% (+1,5)
Grune: 7% (=)
linke PDS: 8% (-1)

Sonstige: 3% (+1)

2) Forschungsgruppe Wahlen

1299, 09/06-08

CDU/CSU: 41% (-2)
FDP: 7% (=)

SPD: 34% (+2)
Grune: 7% (=)
linke PDS: 8% (=)

Sonstige: 3% (=)

3) Allensbach

No details on the poll at this hour.

CDU/CSU: 41,5% (-0,2)
FDP: 7% (-1)

SPD: 32,7% (+3,1)
Grune: 7,2% (-0,9)
Linke PDS: 8,9% (-0,8)

Sonstige: 2,7% (-0,2)

[minionofmidas]

Fascinating who an election that looked like an utter defeat for the left actually looks like a very close run now. Any idea on the possiblilty on a Grüne-Links-SPD coalition?

SPD leadership would, definitely, prefer a grand coalition with CDU.  I suspect the same about the Greens. Chances of the "Left" being in government after this election are no greater than would have been the chances of NPD if they could, arithmetically, form a majority with CDU and FDP. That is, they are precisely zero.

No...not quite.
It's definitely a very small chance that became smaller with the recruitment of my man Oskar, but it's not precisely zero - unlike the chances of the NPD ever joining a government on any level in Germany without winning at least 40% of the vote.
A Grand Coalition can be considered an utterly safe bet as long as CDU/FDP are clearly stronger than SPD/Greens, but in the still unlikely case that doesn't happen, I wouldn't bet on it.

For example, imagine the following no.s - CDU 38, SPD 37.5, Greens 8, FDP 6.5, Left 7.5. The overall left-of-center support in the country is up from 2002. SPD/Greens are stronger than CDU/FDP. And Schröder could remain - would in fact have to remain - as chancellor in a red-green-red coalition but not a grand coalition.

Btw, I will officially consider the election won if CDU/FDP is closer to SPD/Greens than SPD/Greens/Left, and the FDP places fifth. That would still lead to a Grand Coalition, but with lots of extortion potential for the SPD (they could always walk out if things don't go well), with the FDP totally meaningless, and lots of chances to gain in profile for Greens and Left. Oh, and the CDU'd be forced to show what exactly it is willing to do and what not, and likely start losing state elections again. Paradise Island. Only field I'd be worried on is the whole crime/civil rights/terror/"security" issue.

[minionofmidas]

Came across a very interesting stat earlier today...
Across the country at large, when asked about their favorite government constellation, slightly less than 40% say a Grand Coalition, slightly less than 30% say CDU-FDP, slightly less than 30% say either SPD-Greens or SPD-Greens-Left (2-1 relation between these two.)
Now...among those saying they'll vote CDU, those who favor CDU-FDP outnumber those favoring CDU-SPD 3-1.
Among those saying they'll vote SPD, those favoring a left-wing government only narrowly outnumber those favoring a grand coalition.
What does this tell us?
Two things. Greens/Left outnumber the FDP, but we didn't need telling that.
And undecideds obviously don't like the thought of CDU-FDP, either. The result of the elections is largely a function of turnout.
 I've long held that if this country had American-style GOTV operations, the CDU would have to reform extremely or face defeat at every single election.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some thoughts on "Red-Red-Green" (SPD + Left Party + Greens)... and why I think that this option is unlikely:

1) One of the two leading figures of the Left is Oskar Lafontaine. Most of the SPD members consider him a traitor. 'nough said.

2) After Lafontaine´s remarks about immigrants, the admittance of Turkey into the European Union, and the EU constitution some Greens would rather cut off their right hand than entering a coalition with the Left Party.

3) The Left Party wants to completely reverse Schröder´s "Agenda 2010" and "Hartz" reforms, which are key components of the SPD/Green coalition´s policy agenda. I don't see how SPD and Greens could do this 180 degree turn without losing any credibility. On the other hand, I don't see the Left backing down on their opposition to this policies.

4) Why should the Left Party want to enter a governing coalition anyway... especially considering the state of the economy? I think Lafontaine was very honest so far in saying what his goals are: Making the Left the third-largest party in the Bundestag and thus enforcing a grand coalition (and as a result, becoming the leader of the oppositon).


There's a 50% chance that CDU/CSU and FDP will win enough seats to form a coalition in the end... and a 50% chance that they won't. In the latter case a coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD is the most likely option. SPD/Greens/Left and SPD/Greens/FDP are also discussed right now, but the chances of either of this becoming reality are relatively low.

[Middle-aged Europe]

A few months ago I posted a list with the likelihood of some events... well, here's an update now.




Likelihood of parties being elected to the Bundestag

SPD: very high

CDU/CSU: very high

Greens: high

FDP: high (lowered from "very high")

Left Party: high

NPD: very low

Other parties: extremely low




Likelihood of governments/coalitions


CDU/CSU alone: very low (lowered from "medium")

CDU/CSU + FDP: medium (lowered from "very high")

CDU/CSU + SPD: medium

CDU/CSU + Greens: very low


SPD alone: very low

SPD + Greens: low

SPD + FDP: very low

SPD + Left Party: very low

SPD + Greens + FDP: low (raised from "very low")

SPD + Greens + Left Party: low

SPD + CDU/CSU (SPD as senior partner in a grand coalition): low (raised from "very low")




Likelihood of candidates becoming Chancellor:

Gerhard Schröder: low

Angela Merkel: high (lowered from "very high")

[Middle-aged Europe]

And now I did some math and summarized the latest opinion polls.




Allensbach (9/9)
CDU/CSU 41.5%
SPD 32.7%
Left Party 8.9%
Greens 7.2%
FDP 7.0%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
SPD + Left Party + Greens

No majority for:
CDU/CSU + FDP
SPD + Greens + FDP
SPD + Greens




Emnid (9/10)
CDU/CSU 40.5%
SPD 34.5%
Left Party 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
SPD + Left Party + Greens

Tie:
SPD + Greens + FDP

No majority for:
CDU/CSU + FDP
SPD + Greens




Forsa (9/7)
CDU/CSU 42%
SPD 34%
Left Party 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 6%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
SPD + Left Party + Greens

No majority for:
CDU/CSU + FDP
SPD + Greens + FDP
SPD + Greens




Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (9/9)
CDU/CSU   41%
SPD 34%
Left Party   8%
Greens 7%
FDP 7%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
SPD + Left Party + Greens

No majority for:
CDU/CSU + FDP
SPD + Greens + FDP
SPD + Greens




GMS (9/5)
CDU/CSU   42%
SPD 32%
Left Party   8%
Greens 8%
FDP 7%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
CDU/CSU + FDP

No majority for:
SPD + Left Party + Greens
SPD + Greens + FDP
SPD + Greens




Infratest-dimap (9/8)
CDU/CSU   41%
SPD 34%
Left Party   8.5%
Greens 7%
FDP 6.5%

Theoretical majority for:
CDU/CSU + SPD
SPD + Left Party + Greens

No majority for:
CDU/CSU + FDP
SPD + Greens + FDP
SPD + Greens




As you can see, almost all polling firms are currently predicting a theoretical majority for SPD, Left Party, and the Greens (as opposed to CDU/CSU and FDP). But with a margin of only 1%, this majority is in most cases razor-thin.

Two other things are apparent: With a margin of about 8%, SPD and Greens are far from winning a majority of their own again. And CDU/CSU and SPD would have a overwhelming majority of seats together.

[Michael Z]

I can't see Lafontaine's party going into a coalition with the SPD, there is simply too much bad blood there. If anything, a Grand Coalition seems more and more likely, though I wonder if Merkel would give a cabinet seat to Muentefehring - after all, another SPD party leader, Brandt, was a pivotal figure in Kiesinger's cabinet during the late 60s.