German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

Second,
another Dresden update.
As the CDU needs to win the direct seat but needs to prevent getting over 40K votes (ie, over 30% on a 65% turnout), they should call for a First Vote CDU, Second Vote FDP. I need someone to check the math for me - does that create changes in the FDP seat distribution? I'm assuming the "no effects likely" talk was assuming a "normal" FDP result.
Meanwhile, the Left's direct candidate is already elected via the list while the SPD one is not. Left might campaign for a First Vote SPD, Second Vote Left to prevent the CDU from gaining an extra Überhangmandat.

[minionofmidas]

Third,
some remarks on the FDP's at first glance absurd opposition to the Traffic Light.
There are some perfectly good reasons for it:
First, it would be "betraying the voters". I wouldn't vote Green for a long time to come if they'd join a Schwampel, and FDP voters can be fully expected to reciprocate (sp?) the sentiment.
Second, a Grand Coalition would see Guido Westerwelle as the leader of the opposition. That after all is why I was hoping for the FDP to place fifth. (Although if given the options of the current result or current result with FDP down 4 and Union up 4, I would have picked the current result. But then I'm a friend of chaos.)
Third, the FDP is haunted by the trauma of 1961. In 1961, the FDP's campaign pledge had been to rejoin a coalition with the CDU/CSU if they lost their majority, but not under a chancellor Adenauer. The Old One had to go. They got a great result (unsurpassed since) and immediately broke their promise. The ghost of 1961 has pretty much been with the "Umfallerpartei" ever since.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Jamaican coalition makes no sense to me at all, honestly it sounds about as logical as the Tories trying to form a government with Sinn Fein. I can't beleive it's being seriously suggested.

Traffic light is probably the only realistic scenario, unless one of the sides sucks up and agrees to a Grand Coalition, or they can choose some sort of compromise Chancellor.

BTW, if John Kerry was President now, would CDU/CSU + FDP have won a clear majority?

[Middle-aged Europe]

BTW, if John Kerry was President now, would CDU/CSU + FDP have won a clear majority?

Counterquestion: What has John Kerry to do with the flat tax?


America/Bush/Iraq didn't play nearly as much a role as it did in 2002 (or as it perhaps was perceived abroad), despite some few remarks by Schröder. This election was very much decided by the issue of "social justice"... and the question whether Merkel is more incompetent than Schröder or not (considering the election result the latter question was answered by a "no difference").

With John Kerry in the White House the result wouldn't have been much different, because this time we had other issues than scary countries with funny names in the Middle East.

[minionofmidas]

Fourth,
I have four more possible options.
I'll start with the most absurd one and end with the one that I have the most absurd things to say about.

-The senile old wanker respected German author Martin Walser has proposed an all-party (except Left) coalition of the ablest heads. Merkel could be chancellor. Schröder could be vice chancellor and foreign minister.

Oh my God. Please no.

No? No.

-The SPD could just let Merkel and Westerwelle try to govern alone, perhaps even help elect Merkel chancellor but stay outside the cabinet. They could then bring the government down at whatever moment they find to be the most convenient for new elections.

-This is the option I personally favor upon sane reflection, the one this election result really calls for.
It is not going to happen though: not because Germany is not ready for it, but because the German political caste - journalists; leadership circles of all the parties - are not ready for it.
It's an SPD minority government. After all, the SPD holds the balance of power in the Bundestag. They'd have to find outside support for every bill they want to pass - either the CDU or two out of four of CSU, FDP, Greens, and Left. This would actually be likely to improve the quality of legislation passed , not to mention restore Parliament to its old central role from which it has been sidelined by the minstries.

-This one begun life as a rhetorical line I was thinking of. That line was supposed to be "Black Traffic Light? Why not Red Green White & Blue? They make about equal sense."
However, the more I thought about it, the more I like it. SPD-Greens-CSU. Perfect. Ähdmund Stoiber gets to be finance minister.
Notice that something like it has already been practiced during the outgoing parliament, in the Föderalismuskommission jointly chaired by Stoiber and Müntefering. That its eminently sensible if not quite farreaching enough proposals for a reform of the German Constitution were then promptly shot down by the CDU state bosses was a personal defeat for Stoiber, and helped pave the way for Merkel's candidacy.
Of course, the joint Fraktion (parliamentary party is the English equivalent, a confusing and muddled term.) with the CDU would have to come to an end, but the CSU had already decided on that once before, in 1981. Back then, Helmut Kohl threatened to expand the CDU into Bavaria, and Franz Josef Strauß desisted and the CSU ate its vote. But today, the CDU is in a much weaker position to threaten a march on Bavaria, ie the CSU has much less to lose. Unless Strauß and Kohl in 81, Stoiber is far more popular in Bavaria than Merkel, after all.
Worse, the CSU might expand into the remainder of the country, rather like the Left is operating nationally from its Eastern base. It could position itself, against Merkel's more libertarian course, as a socially conservative, economically centrist alternative. Heck, if everything goes right the CDU might disappear as the more populist elements join the CSU, the more libertarian elements the FDP. (And the two ex-wings would probably be united in bitter emnity against each other.)
Now you could ask yourself - isn't the SPD under the same theoretical threat from Greens and Left? And isn't the fact that it's showing no signs of happening proof that this scenario isn't plausible either? But I would argue that the situation is different, simply because Greens and Left are not coming from opposite poles within the SPD spectrum.
If you imagine a political compass reweighted to represent only the SPD, the Greens could theoretically take everything on the socially libertarian half; and the Left could theoretically take everything on the economically left-wing half. In other words, the party's Left wing (Nahles, Stiegler, Thierse) might theoretically be attracted to either, the party's Right wing (Steinbrück, Clement, Schily despite his Green past) couldn't possibly find a home in either.

[WMS]

I saw your new reply, Lewis, but this post is long enough already.

There never was one. We had Kohl for 8 years past reunification, remember. He had a plan to bring up the quality of East German housing by subsidies to West German rich investing their money in that (and hey - it worked) , but nothing beyond that really.

Well, then what about the surely-brilliant schemes of the SDP - they've had a shot to do that too.

Red-Red-Green (somebody asked what the Left's colour is, btw. in diagrams it's sort of a reddish violet. In expressions like this, they're red too.)  

That was me - trying to figure out all the color schemes of other countries.

The best chance for a Grand Coalition now is a coordinated double coup in CDU and SPD that forces both Schröder and Merkel to retire. (I loved the Financial Times Deutschland headline yesterday. "Both Losers Want to Be Chancellor.")

I could live with that, if it's a CDU/CSU Chancellor. See the bit with Old Europe below...

You might yet. But you may win yet, too...

OK, maybe I can lose. But the preferred options out there still have me winning.

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

3) Both Merkel and Schröder step aside and CDU/CSU and SPD compromise on the Chancellor question... one of the CDU minister-presidents (state PM's) would most likely end up being Chancellor.

As I said, I could live with that.

7) Schröder is somehow elected Chancellor and forms a SPD/Green minority government, perhaps supported by the Left Party.

BOO! BOOO! BOOOO! BOOOOO! No Left Party! No Left Party! No Left Party!

[Kevinstat]

I think it's pretty rediculous that the CDU could lose a seat by getting more votes.  I still don't fully understand how that could happen, but you, PMOW (Lewis) seem to know what you're talking about.  Could you or someone else perhaps explain in more detail how it would work out that the CDU has less seats nationwide if it gets 41K votes in Dresden I than if it gets 39K votes there.  Also, would the CDU get less seats with 41K votes than with 39K votes regardless of whether or not it wins the direct seat?  (In other words, will it have x seats if it doesn't win the direct seat and gets only 39K votes or fewer, x - 1 seats if it gets 41K votes or more but doesn't win the direct seat, x + 1 seats if it gets 39K votes or fewer but wins the direct seat, and x votes if it gets 41K votes or more and wins the direct seat?)  I realize the answer may be more complicated than even that, given the possibility that the vote in Dresden I could change the "rounded" (based on the way partial proportional mandates are rounded) proportional tally, but if someone could give it there best shot at explaining all this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[WMS]

Fourth,
I have four more possible options.
I'll start with the most absurd one and end with the one that I have the most absurd things to say about.

-The senile old wanker respected German author Martin Walser has proposed an all-party (except Left) coalition of the ablest heads. Merkel could be chancellor. Schröder could be vice chancellor and foreign minister.

Oh my God. Please no.

No? No.

Funny, I click on that message and I don't recall writing that. I take it it's an accurate reflection of my sentiments, huh Lewis?

-The SPD could just let Merkel and Westerwelle try to govern alone, perhaps even help elect Merkel chancellor but stay outside the cabinet. They could then bring the government down at whatever moment they find to be the most convenient for new elections.

That would kinda be dumb for the CDU, wouldn't it?

-This is the option I personally favor upon sane reflection, the one this election result really calls for.
It is not going to happen though: not because Germany is not ready for it, but because the German political caste - journalists; leadership circles of all the parties - are not ready for it.
It's an SPD minority government. After all, the SPD holds the balance of power in the Bundestag. They'd have to find outside support for every bill they want to pass - either the CDU or two out of four of CSU, FDP, Greens, and Left. This would actually be likely to improve the quality of legislation passed , not to mention restore Parliament to its old central role from which it has been sidelined by the minstries.

Hmm...actually, I see this shifting all legislation hard-left as the SPD continually relies on Green and Left votes to pass everything.

Unless I'm missing something here...

-This one begun life as a rhetorical line I was thinking of. That line was supposed to be "Black Traffic Light? Why not Red Green White & Blue? They make about equal sense."
However, the more I thought about it, the more I like it. SPD-Greens-CSU. Perfect. Ähdmund Stoiber gets to be finance minister.
Notice that something like it has already been practiced during the outgoing parliament, in the Föderalismuskommission jointly chaired by Stoiber and Müntefering. That its eminently sensible if not quite farreaching enough proposals for a reform of the German Constitution were then promptly shot down by the CDU state bosses was a personal defeat for Stoiber, and helped pave the way for Merkel's candidacy.
Of course, the joint Fraktion (parliamentary party is the English equivalent, a confusing and muddled term.) with the CDU would have to come to an end, but the CSU had already decided on that once before, in 1981. Back then, Helmut Kohl threatened to expand the CDU into Bavaria, and Franz Josef Strauß desisted and the CSU ate its vote. But today, the CDU is in a much weaker position to threaten a march on Bavaria, ie the CSU has much less to lose. Unless Strauß and Kohl in 81, Stoiber is far more popular in Bavaria than Merkel, after all.

But I thought the CSU and Greens can't stand each other, especially over social issues?

Worse, the CSU might expand into the remainder of the country, rather like the Left is operating nationally from its Eastern base. It could position itself, against Merkel's more libertarian course, as a socially conservative, economically centrist alternative. Heck, if everything goes right the CDU might disappear as the more populist elements join the CSU, the more libertarian elements the FDP. (And the two ex-wings would probably be united in bitter emnity against each other.)

You have my attention.

Now you could ask yourself - isn't the SPD under the same theoretical threat from Greens and Left? And isn't the fact that it's showing no signs of happening proof that this scenario isn't plausible either? But I would argue that the situation is different, simply because Greens and Left are not coming from opposite poles within the SPD spectrum.
If you imagine a political compass reweighted to represent only the SPD, the Greens could theoretically take everything on the socially libertarian half; and the Left could theoretically take everything on the economically left-wing half. In other words, the party's Left wing (Nahles, Stiegler, Thierse) might theoretically be attracted to either, the party's Right wing (Steinbrück, Clement, Schily despite his Green past) couldn't possibly find a home in either.

Sorry if I'm missing this, but this means what now? Would the SPD's right wing be inclined toward the new and improved CSU you outlined above?

Back in an hour or so - off on my late morning walk...

[Bono]

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Could there possibly be a CDU-FDP-Green coalition?

So, am I a visionary or not?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

A side question...is black the "official" color of the CDU?  Because most of the maps I have seen show them represented by blue.  I also own a board game simulation of the German electoral process (called Die Macher), and the CDU is represented by Blue playing pieces...Black is reserved for the PDS.

[Burn baby, Burn]

I've seen Black more then Blue. the only time I've seen Blue is when it makes sence to have Blue over Black.

[Angel of Death]

The "official" colour of the CDU is actually orange.

[Colin]

The "official" colour of the CDU is actually orange.

No it's not. That was their official election colour not their party colour. Their party colour always has been, and will remain, black. They chose orange for the campaign because an ad agency said that it would look better and stand out more than black, IIRC.

[Angel of Death]

The Wikipedia article needs to be modified to accurately reflect that then.
Blue is actually the colour of the CSU and although it could be used to symbolize the CDU/CSU as a whole, I'm speculating that black is still chosen to prevent confusion as people tend to rather drop the CSU than the CDU when they talk about the German Conservatives.

[CO-OWL]

The "official" colour of the CDU is actually orange.

No it's not. That was their official election colour not their party colour. Their party colour always has been, and will remain, black. They chose orange for the campaign because an ad agency said that it would look better and stand out more than black, IIRC.

The traditional colour of the CDU/CSU is indeed black (I guess dating back to the old Centrist Party and the Catholic church). CDU/CSU supporters are called "the Blacks" ("die Schwarzen") as SPD supporters are "the Reds" ("die Roten").
Blue is often used in maps and charts to represent the CDU/CSU (I think it's more suitable as a background colour and to show different shades of a colour).
In recent campaigns the CDU has used orange as their official election colour. The CSU has applied blue for this purpose (blue and white being the colours of Bavaria).

[minionofmidas]

Fourth,
I have four more possible options.
I'll start with the most absurd one and end with the one that I have the most absurd things to say about.

-The senile old wanker respected German author Martin Walser has proposed an all-party (except Left) coalition of the ablest heads. Merkel could be chancellor. Schröder could be vice chancellor and foreign minister.

Oh my God. Please no.

No? No.

Funny, I click on that message and I don't recall writing that. I take it it's an accurate reflection of my sentiments, huh Lewis?

Yep.

-This is the option I personally favor upon sane reflection, the one this election result really calls for.
It is not going to happen though: not because Germany is not ready for it, but because the German political caste - journalists; leadership circles of all the parties - are not ready for it.
It's an SPD minority government. After all, the SPD holds the balance of power in the Bundestag. They'd have to find outside support for every bill they want to pass - either the CDU or two out of four of CSU, FDP, Greens, and Left. This would actually be likely to improve the quality of legislation passed , not to mention restore Parliament to its old central role from which it has been sidelined by the minstries.

Hmm...actually, I see this shifting all legislation hard-left as the SPD continually relies on Green and Left votes to pass everything.

Unless I'm missing something here...

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You're missing a) the rivalry of Schröder and Lafontaine b) the fact that some of the reform laws of Schröder's first term were pretty badly drafted and had results not quite as intended, and that's what I was stabbing at really.
Anyways, what you say may well happen in this scenario...after a while.

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Sure. We can't stand the FDP either, and they can't stand us, though. Anyways a Jamaican would include CSU and Greens too.

[minionofmidas]

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Could there possibly be a CDU-FDP-Green coalition?

So, am I a visionary or not?

No, because it's not going to come to pass.

[minionofmidas]

The Wikipedia article needs to be modified to accurately reflect that then.
Blue is actually the colour of the CSU and although it could be used to symbolize the CDU/CSU as a whole, I'm speculating that black is still chosen to prevent confusion as people tend to rather drop the CSU than the CDU when they talk about the German Conservatives.

Black is inherited from the Zentrum of yore. Throughout most of its history, the CDU/CSU have been black but would have rather liked being blue.

[CO-OWL]

So, here's my take on what scenarios are possible.

1) The CDU accepts Gerhard Schröder as Chancellor in a grand coalition.

Very unlikely.

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I agree, that are the most likely options. The question is: Would it last for four years?

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Unlikely.

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Interesting, but the Green base wouldn't tolerate it. But in the next years we'll see a CDU-Green(perhaps -FDP) coalition on the state level.

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Can't see it at the moment. The FDP would have to find a very convincing excuse. But if options 1)-5) fail, who knows...

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I think public opinion will press the parties to agree on a stable coalition. IMHO all three options would lead to early elections within a few months.

[minionofmidas]

So what does Merkel's fast reelection as Fraktionsvorsitzende mean? Media are spinning it as if it meant the Union was united behind her - but they'd have sent a much stronger message for that by electing anybody else that she nominated. Looks to me as if [spin]she knows she's not going to be chancellor[/spin][realism]she knows she may very well not become chancellor[/realism] and is ensuring that she cannot be sidelined and holds one of the most powerful posts there will be in a CDU-SPD coalition chancellored by someone else.

[minionofmidas]

Kevin -
Seat distribution in Germany works in three steps.
Step one - distribute 598 seats proportionally to the parties
Step two - distribute parties' national no of seats proportionally to the state lists
Step three - compare with parties`direct seats. If equal, only directly elected persons are elected. If lower, fill remaining seats from list. If higher, all directly elected persons are elected anyways, ie the party may keep extra seats it is not proportionally entitled to. (However, vacancies here will not be filled until the quota is reached.)
 
Now, Dresden's possible effects:
Step one - from what I read, a lot is possible (the math are hard because all the parties will still gain votes) but no change is likely. I'm not quite sure if that's true, especially if the CDU supporters tactically vote FDP, but let's assume it is.
Step two - (the math is easier because votes will be gained in only one of the 16 states) one CDU seat would transfer from another state to Saxony
Step three - The CDU already has won 13 direct seats from Saxony, and might win a 14th. However, it is only proportionally entitled to 10 seats, which may change to 11.

Thence,
-if the CDU gains 41K votes and the direct seat, one CDU MP elsewhere loses his place and is replaced by the Dresden I direct candidate. The CDU ends up with the same no. of seats incl. the same no. of "overhang" seats but the distribution among the states is different.
-if the CDU gains 41K votes but not the direct seat, one CDU MP elsewhere loses his place and only two rather than three of the CDU's Saxon seats are "overhang". The CDU ends up losing a seat.
-if the CDU does not get 41K votes but wins the direct seat, nobody loses his place but they get an extra "overhang" seat in Saxony. The CDU ends up gaining a seat
-if the CDU does not get 41K votes and does not win the direct seat, no effect.

[Michael Z]

I never realized the CSU was so strong in Bavaria. its alimost like Alberta and Canada voting Conservative.

The CSU is virtually an institution in Bavaria. I don't think they've ever lost a single state election there.

[minionofmidas]

I never realized the CSU was so strong in Bavaria. its alimost like Alberta and Canada voting Conservative.

The CSU is virtually an institution in Bavaria. I don't think they've ever lost a single state election there.

Define "ever". Define "lost".

The CSU has been governing alone in Bavaria since 1962. Between 46 and 62, they were always the strongest party IIRC, but did not have a majority of their own and were not even always in government. Before 1945, of course, they didn't even exist.

[minionofmidas]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Top results in other eastern states:
Thuringia: Sonneberg - Saalfeld-Rudolstadt - Saale-Orla 4.6%
Brandenburg: Elbe-Elster - Oberspreewald-Lausitz II 4.97%
Saxony Anhalt: Burgenland 4.2%
Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania: Neubrandenburg - Mecklenburg-Strelitz - Uecker-Randow 4.6%
Berlin: Marzahn-Hellersdorf 3.2%

They did worst in the major cities - Leipzig II 2.2%, Potsdam etc 1.8%, Rostock 2.0%, Magdeburg and Halle 1.7% each.

In the 8 constituencies where they crossed 5%, I looked at municipality results. Here's a list of shame (in brackets is the first place mentioned in the constituency name):
Reinhardtsdorf-Schöna (Sächsische Schweiz) 14.4%
Weißig a. Raschnitz (Kamenz) 14.1%
Nauwalde (Kamenz) 12.8%
Lampertswalde (Kamenz) 12.7%
Kreba-Neudorf (Bautzen) 12.5%
Kirnitzschtal (Sächsische Schweiz) 11.9%
Thiendorf (Kamenz) 11.8%
Hohnstein (Sächsische Schweiz) 11.5%
Klitten (Bautzen) 11.5%
Bahretal (Sächsische Schweiz) 11.2%
Puschwitz (Bautzen) 11.2%
Neukirch (Kamenz) 11.1%
Zabeltitz (Kamenz) 11.1%
Mücka (Bautzen) 11.0%
Wildenhain (Kamenz) 11.0%
Naundorf (Delitzsch) 10.8%
Zettlitz (Döbeln) 10.7%
Gohrisch (Sächsische Schweiz) 10.6%
Königstein/Sächsische Schweiz (you guessed it) 10.4%
Pöhla (Annaberg) 10.4%
Elstra (Kamenz) 10.2%
Großrückerswalde (Freiberg) 10.1%
Liebstadt (Sächsische Schweiz) 10.0%

I was especially "impressed" by the results for Lampertswalde and Reinhardtsdorf-Schöna.
Lampertswalde - CDU 38.4% Left 20.5% SPD 13.1% NPD 12.7% FDP 10.5% Greens 1.8%
Reinhardtsdorf-Schöna - CDU 37.0% Left 17.1% SPD 15.8% NPD 14.4% FDP 9.4% Greens 2.0%
These are the closest the NPD got to third place and second place, respectively. (CDU and SPD were closer to tied in Weißig)

An especial mention goes to the town of Sosa, in Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg district.
There's a party in Germany called the Partei Bibeltreuer Christen. They've been around for ages, never had any success. In Saxony this year, they polled 0.6%. Well, look at Sosa:
CDU 48.4% SPD 15.4% Left 12.9% FDP 9.6% PBC 5.6% NPD 5.1% Greens 1.8%

[Middle-aged Europe]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Sounds like the usual suspects.

They did worst in the major cities - Leipzig II 2.2%, Potsdam etc 1.8%, Rostock 2.0%, Magdeburg and Halle 1.7% each.

YEEESSSSS!