German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Sounds like the usual suspects.

Interesting; what are all those areas like? Seeing as the NPD are the most blatently Neo Nazi far-right party in the E.U it'd be interesting to see what the areas they do well in are like

[minionofmidas]

Saxon (ie, had no West German tv during the GDR). Rural. Poor (duh. They're Eastern after all...) In some cases, ie Annaberg Aue Schwarzenberg, Freiberg Mittleres Erzgebirge, with 6 centuries-old mining traditions. First copper, then iron, lastly (in the 50s and 60s and 70s) uranium. In parts quite beautiful.

Off the top of my head...

[WMS]

Funny, I click on that message and I don't recall writing that. I take it it's an accurate reflection of my sentiments, huh Lewis?

Yep.

Yeah, that type of broad coalition seems like it would end with someone getting shoved down a flight of stairs.

Hmm...actually, I see this shifting all legislation hard-left as the SPD continually relies on Green and Left votes to pass everything.

Unless I'm missing something here...

You're missing a) the rivalry of Schröder and Lafontaine b) the fact that some of the reform laws of Schröder's first term were pretty badly drafted and had results not quite as intended, and that's what I was stabbing at really.
Anyways, what you say may well happen in this scenario...after a while.

Ah, a) I had forgotten about and b) I didn't know about in the first place.
And I can't but see the Left Party exacting an ideological toll on the SPD and Greens in return for outside support...

But I thought the CSU and Greens can't stand each other, especially over social issues?

Sure. We can't stand the FDP either, and they can't stand us, though. Anyways a Jamaican would include CSU and Greens too.

See my 'someone gets shoved down a flight of stairs' comment above.

[Michael Z]

According to sueddeutsche.de, Edmund Stoiber has stated that there are too many fundamental ideological differences between CDU/CSU and the Greens to form a coalition. Coupled with the fact that Stoiber didn't seem all that unenthusiastic about a Grand Coalition on election night, I'm pretty much convinced he's trying to sort a backroom deal with Muntefehring and Schroeder behind Merkel's back. Watch this space, as they say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to sueddeutsche.de, Edmund Stoiber has stated that there are too many fundamental ideological differences between CDU/CSU and the Greens to form a coalition. Coupled with the fact that Stoiber didn't seem all that unenthusiastic about a Grand Coalition on election night, I'm pretty much convinced he's trying to sort a backroom deal with Muntefehring and Schroeder behind Merkel's back. Watch this space, as they say.

Interesting. Very, very interesting...

[ag]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Sounds like the usual suspects.

Interesting; what are all those areas like? Seeing as the NPD are the most blatently Neo Nazi far-right party in the E.U it'd be interesting to see what the areas they do well in are like

Interestingly, NPD did quite strong around Bautzen, and in Brandenburg their best result is in Lausitz.  These are the last outposts of Germany's ownly surviving "native" ethnic minority: the Luzica Sorbs (a Slavic group).  Most likely, there is no causal link: these are just remote and poor Eastern German districts (the remoteness is also one reason for the Sorbian survival there), but still interesting.

[Jens]

I had a lookaround for the NPD. They topped 5% in 8 constituencies, all in Saxony:
Sächsische Schweiz - Weißeritz 7.1%
Kamenz - Hoyerswerda - Großenhain 6.5%
Bautzen - Weißwasser 6.3%
Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg 6.3%
Freiberg - Mittleres Erzgebirge 6.1%
Görlitz - Löbau-Zittau - Niesky 6.0%
Döbeln - Mittweida - Meißen II 5.8%
Delitzsch - Torgau-Oschatz - Riesa 5.2%

Sounds like the usual suspects.

Interesting; what are all those areas like? Seeing as the NPD are the most blatently Neo Nazi far-right party in the E.U it'd be interesting to see what the areas they do well in are like

Interestingly, NPD did quite strong around Bautzen, and in Brandenburg their best result is in Lausitz.  These are the last outposts of Germany's ownly surviving "native" ethnic minority: the Luzica Sorbs (a Slavic group).  Most likely, there is no causal link: these are just remote and poor Eastern German districts (the remoteness is also one reason for the Sorbian survival there), but still interesting.

Another reason is also the short way to the Polish border. It doesn't promote tolerance to be a low wage worker in an area with high unemployment rates and still lose your job to even cheaper Polish workers.
Saxony, by the way, never stops to surprise me. Before WWII it was a stronghold of SPD and KPD. These days it is the ex-DDR stronghold of CDU. I wonder what changed??

[minionofmidas]

The change in Saxony was becoming apparent during the Weimar Republic, Jens. It was a Social Democrat stronghold during the Kaiserreich (every single one of its 23 Reichstag seats was won by a Social Democrat at least once - though never more than 22 at a time), but much less pronouncedly so during the Republic. Nazis also did well there.

[Jens]

The change in Saxony was becoming apparent during the Weimar Republic, Jens. It was a Social Democrat stronghold during the Kaiserreich (every single one of its 23 Reichstag seats was won by a Social Democrat at least once - though never more than 22 at a time), but much less pronouncedly so during the Republic. Nazis also did well there.

Later on, yes, but KPD and USPD also did very well. I don't have the numbers here, but i'm pretty sure of it. Any idea why? A change in the work force or just general SPD downturn?

[minionofmidas]

Not really sure, except Saxon social democrat votes in the Kaiserreich may have had more to do with opposition than with marxism...

From what I read at the Spiegel website, Stoiber "is said" to have said the CSU would not  be ready to be part of Jamaica Coalition. And there is no majority for CDU, FDP and Greens without the CSU, so I suppose that ghost is dead now.
Meanwhile, some Left Party MPs have defied party line and said they could, if the circumstances were right, imagine a toleration. More to come...

[Michael Z]

According to sueddeutsche.de, Edmund Stoiber has stated that there are too many fundamental ideological differences between CDU/CSU and the Greens to form a coalition. Coupled with the fact that Stoiber didn't seem all that unenthusiastic about a Grand Coalition on election night, I'm pretty much convinced he's trying to sort a backroom deal with Muntefehring and Schroeder behind Merkel's back. Watch this space, as they say.

Interesting. Very, very interesting...

I'm now reading that Stoiber openly criticised Merkel in a recent speech and apparently said her "cold and heartless oratory" contributed to the CDU's result.

It gets better: Peter Gauweiler, a hardline CSU member, has openly toyed with the idea of a rotating Chancellorship during the next four years, with two years of an SPD chancellor and another two of a CSU/CDU chancellor. This is going to get very interesting indeed...

Btw, the source for this is www.sueddeutsche.de (Source article) - I'm not too familiar with that paper; would the Germany-based members of the forum regard it as a reliable source of information?

[ag]

I am not a German or German-based, but I believe the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, is a major Bavarian paper (in fact, I would guess, the major Bavarian paper).  Should be reliable, especially on CSU.

[Storebought]

I am not a German or German-based, but I believe the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, is a major Bavarian paper (in fact, I would guess, the major Bavarian paper).  Should be reliable, especially on CSU.

Having the ability to read "some" German, I can assure you:

The Sueddeutsche is an organ of the Social Democrats. Pretty baldly so, in fact.

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems to me that there is NO viable majority coalition.

If the CDU/CSU joins any coalition with the SPD or Greens, they will irk their supporters.

If the SPD joins in any coalition with CDU/CSU, it will irk their supporters.

If FD joints in any coalition with any party other than CDU/CSU, it will irk their supporters.

If the Greens join in any coalition other than with the SPD, it will irk their supporters.

Needless to say, the L-PDS is not welcome by any of the other parties, and does not want to have anything to do with any of the other parties.

So, the two questions are:

1.) How soon can new elections be held?

2.) What changes will occur in such an election?

[Middle-aged Europe]

1.) How soon can new elections be held?

Theoretically speaking... the new Bundestag has to constitute itself within 30 days. If the Bundestag fails to elect a Chancellor on the first ballot, the second (and third) ballot has to be held within fourteen days. Is a Chancellor elected on the third ballot with relative majority the president may appoint him/her or call for early elections within the following seven days. Early elections are to be held within 60 days of the dissolution of the Bundestag. So I'd, the next election could be held in the next three or four months... perhaps in January.

But I still think (hope) that it doesn't come so far. Perhaps it's time for the two major parties to dispose their respective chancellor candidates now... at least on the side of the SPD is this badly needed in order to get a government together.

2.) What changes will occur in such an election?

At this moment, that's totally unpredictable.. at least for me. A CDU/FDP majority, a SPD/Green majority, or the same result all over again (perhaps with better numbers for the Left.PDS, because people will start to be really disaffected by mainstream politics), who knows?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yesterday, the first talks between SPD and Greens were held. These were mostly of symbolic nature, because both parties would need the FDP to govern and the FDP refused to even talk to the SPD. Today, the CDU/CSU will come together with the FDP and then with the SPD. For tomorrow, a meeting between the leaderships of CDU/CSU and the Greens is scheduled.

In related news, there were rumours that the SPD is planning to change the rules of the Bundestag, so that two parties (read: CDU and CSU) wouldn't be allowed anymore to form a caucus. By separating CDU and CSU, the SPD would become the largest party in the house and had the right to keep the office of Chancellor in the case of the grand coalition. Those plans were now denied by SPD chairman Franz Müntefering. I'd say there were in fact discussed within the party, but it is unclear whether it was for real or just a bluff to put some pressure on the CSD/CSU. To change those rules, the SPD would have needed the votes of the Left Party anyway, and the Left has already said that they wouldn't take part in this sort of thing... which would have been kind of ironic when the CDU/CSU is actually saved by the Left.PDS.

[minionofmidas]

I am not a German or German-based, but I believe the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, is a major Bavarian paper (in fact, I would guess, the major Bavarian paper).  Should be reliable, especially on CSU.

Having the ability to read "some" German, I can assure you:

The Sueddeutsche is an organ of the Social Democrats. Pretty baldly so, in fact.

Süddeutsche is Bavaria's sole non-tabloid major paper.
While certainly not "an organ of the Social Democrats", it's certainly not an organ of the CSU either. Sort of centrist.

[Bono]

I have a question.
Asides from some babble about fiscality and labor laws, did CDU have anything that at least resembled a reformist program?
Or is it just a coincidence that the party that actually came forward with strong reform proposals(FDP) got one of their best results in the late years?

[minionofmidas]

Neither CDU nor FDP had a serious reform program.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Or is it just a coincidence that the party that actually came forward with strong reform proposals(FDP) got one of their best results in the late years?

The success of the FDP can be mostly explained by the fact that a lot of CDU supporters voted for the FDP to ensure that CDU/FDP will have a majority (didn't work that much).

Compared to the CDU with their whole Kirchhof tax concept chaos, the FDP probably also looked much more organized. In addition, their new no-nonsense style (compared to their totally stupid and utterly failed "fun campaign" of 2002) could have get them some voters.

[minionofmidas]

Or is it just a coincidence that the party that actually came forward with strong reform proposals(FDP) got one of their best results in the late years?

The success of the FDP can be mostly explained by the fact that a lot of CDU supporters voted for the FDP to ensure that CDU/FDP will have a majority (didn't work that much).

Compared to the CDU with their whole Kirchhof tax concept chaos, the FDP probably also looked much more organized. In addition, their new no-nonsense style (compared to their totally stupid and utterly failed "fun campaign" of 2002) could have get them some voters.

new-old no-nonsense style. In 2002 the FDP lost a lot of votes in their traditional strongholds, but gained working-class votes - this is most marked when you go down to the precinct level, but can be seen even on the constituency level. (They still polled better in their old strongholds - somwhat better). These votes were lost in disgust at Westerwelle and Möllemann's style of campaigning. They came back with a vengeance now, while in their 2002 gains areas, the FDP made only minimal further gains or in a number of cases actually lost votes.
But it should be said that the FDP's campaign was not so much "serious" as "staid" - and fairly low-key actually.
As to why the gains - with the CDU trying to appear as libertarian (only on the economic side of the equation though) as the FDP, one major reason for not splitting votes for many CDU voters was gone. Plus of course the FDP looked more sober, and it didn't support an increase in sales tax - an idea that even in the CDU most considered to be horrible, as in the current situation it's pretty much poison for economic growth.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, the preliminary talks between the parties are over for this week.

The leaders of the CDU/CSU and and the Greens seemed rather, uh, skeptical after their meeting today. And further talks between the two parties are not scheduled at the moment. Now, the "Jamaica coalition" looks at best as a backup plan of the CDU for the case that the negotiations about a grand coalition will fail.

CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed to resume their talks next wednesday. The main obstacle still seems to be question who's going to be Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder or Angela Merkel, and not so much the issues.

[minionofmidas]

Well, the preliminary talks between the parties are over for this week.

The leaders of the CDU/CSU and and the Greens seemed rather, uh, skeptical after their meeting today. And further talks between the two parties are not scheduled at the moment. Now, the "Jamaica coalition" looks at best as a backup plan of the CDU for the case that the negotiations about a grand coalition will fail.

Basically, all these talks amounted to is:
Bütikofer or Roth: "Well then, what consequences are you drawing from the fact that your program has no majority support?"
Merkel or Stoiber: "Uh-er-no idea."
Bütikofer or Roth: "And why did I come here today? Bye!"

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The main obstacle is that whoever of the Union grandees stabs Merkel first loses his chance to be chancellor.

[freek]

An especial mention goes to the town of Sosa, in Annaberg - Aue-Schwarzenberg district.
There's a party in Germany called the Partei Bibeltreuer Christen. They've been around for ages, never had any success. In Saxony this year, they polled 0.6%. Well, look at Sosa:
CDU 48.4% SPD 15.4% Left 12.9% FDP 9.6% PBC 5.6% NPD 5.1% Greens 1.8%

According to a document I found on Google the PBC scored 8% in Sosa at the last Landtag election.

Is the party leader maybe from Sosa? Or is there some kind of Calvinist Church, because the party looks similar to the Dutch ChristenUnie-program.

edit: I think this explains something: http://www.elfk.de/hartenstein/geschichte.html. There is a breakaway Lutheran Church in Sosa.

Btw, were the PBC and the NPD the only minor parties who scored remarkable results?

[minionofmidas]

Only 5%+ results that I'm aware of- but the "Greys" (a pensioners party) didn't do all that bad in Berlin, and there's probably a no more such results.