German federal election (September 18, 2005)
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Author Topic: German federal election (September 18, 2005)  (Read 119150 times)
Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #525 on: October 02, 2005, 01:33:56 PM »

Current results of the Dresden I by-election (234 of 260 precincts counted)


First vote
Andres Lämmel (CDU): 37.2%
Marlies Volkmer (SPD): 32.0%
Katja Kipping (Left.PDS): 19.3%
Peggy Bellmann (FDP): 4.8%
Stephan Kühn (Greens): 3.8%
Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 2.4%
Katarzyna Kruczkowski (BüSo): 0.6%

Second vote
SPD: 27.8%
CDU: 24.4%
Left.PDS: 19.8%
FDP: 16.9%
Greens: 7.0%
NPD: 2.6%
Other parties: 3.2%

Turnout: 70.7%


Apparently, the FDP took benefit from a huge ammount of CDU supporters who voted tactical. As a result, the CDU has won an additional overhang seat, leading to this final composition of the Bundestag: CDU/CSU 226, SPD 222, FDP 61, Left 54, Greens 51.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #526 on: October 02, 2005, 02:24:25 PM »

Not that I want to look like a sex-crazed chauvini... ah, what the hell...


...this is Dresden's Left Party candidate Katja Kipping...
 


...and this is Dresden's FDP candidate Peggy Bellmann.
 
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freek
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« Reply #527 on: October 02, 2005, 02:49:56 PM »

Great, a party receives less votes than expected, and as a reward they receive an extra seat.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #528 on: October 02, 2005, 02:52:11 PM »

Could someone explain the dual system in Germany?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #529 on: October 02, 2005, 05:14:09 PM »

Could someone explain the dual system in Germany?

Take a look here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/bundestag.htm

here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/overhang.html

and here...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/english/news/001.htm
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Beet
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« Reply #530 on: October 02, 2005, 05:40:52 PM »

omg Old Europe... those candidates look like their 17.

...

Now if only we could get some in this country Wink
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #531 on: October 02, 2005, 06:41:03 PM »

omg Old Europe... those candidates look like their 17.

No, Bellmann is 19, Kipping even 27 years old. Wink  Of the two, Kipping was elected to the Bundestag as part of the Left Party's candidate list (second vote).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #532 on: October 03, 2005, 08:05:20 AM »

I sort of feared really weird excesses of tactical voting (say...FDP and CDU percentages reversed), that didn't happen.
And I "hoped" for really weird excesses of tactical voting by Left Party supporters, to help the SPD steal the direct seat. Grin
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #533 on: October 03, 2005, 10:36:41 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2005, 05:39:07 AM by Old Europe »

And Schröder isn't ruling out anymore that he won't remain Chancellor. He virtually said that he will leave this decision up to his party.

CDU/CSU and SPD will hold their third round of preliminary talks this wednesday. I guess they're going to open up formal negotiations about entering a Grand coalition then. And my take is that at some point during this negotiations the SPD will accept the CDU's (and perhaps even Merkel's) claim to the Chancellery. The question is what the SPD will ask for in return for this little "favour".
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #534 on: October 03, 2005, 12:23:42 PM »

Quite a lot apparently, and it looks like their going to get it.
Just one thing leaves me worried...
I got no problem with a vice chancellor Müntefering.
Nor with a chancellor Müntefering.
But candidate Müntefering sounds...not good.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #535 on: October 03, 2005, 12:47:20 PM »
« Edited: October 03, 2005, 12:49:15 PM by Lewis Trondheim »

Saxony (without Dresden I. Comparison is with entire state.)
Turnout 75.9 (+2.4)
CDU 30.2 (-3.2) 13 seats (13 direct incl. 3 overhang)
SPD 24.3 (-9.0) 8 seats (3 direct)
Left 23.0 (+6.8) 8 seats
FDP 9.8 (+2.5) 3 seats
Greens 4.6 (0) 2 seats
other 7.8 (+2.7), of which NPD 4.9
Updated:
Saxony
Turnout 75.7 (+2.2)
CDU 30.0 (-3.4) 14 seats (14 direct incl 4 overhang)
SPD 24.5 (-8.8) 8 seats (3 direct)
Left 22.8 (+6.6) 8 seats
FDP 10.2 (+2.9) 3 seats
Greens 4.8 (+0.2) 2 seats
other 7.6 (+2.5), of which NPD 4.8
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #536 on: October 03, 2005, 12:49:03 PM »

And yes, I do find solace in the fact that the Greens did outpoll the NPD in Saxony by 126 votes after all.
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afleitch
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« Reply #537 on: October 03, 2005, 02:19:02 PM »

Go CDU! Though I have a feeling that Merckel will be the sacrifice in order for them to form the administration.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #538 on: October 04, 2005, 06:14:13 AM »

Nah - that would have made sense but isn't going to happen anymore methinks. Looks more like they'll sacrifice power to get Merkel.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #539 on: October 05, 2005, 04:26:33 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2005, 05:38:41 AM by Old Europe »

Uh, uh, it's not so easy than I thought. The CDU/CSU says that they won't begin with formal negotiations unless the SPD unconditionally accepts Merkel's claim to the Chancellery... NOW. The SPD refuses and wants to settle this question during the negotiations. We will see how today's talks will go and whether either side will back down. Rumours are that the coalition talks could be indefinitely suspended.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #540 on: October 05, 2005, 09:57:56 AM »

Well, the two and a half hours long meeting between CDU/CSU and SPD went better than expected. There seems to be not that many conflicts about the issues. Both sides agreed to meet again "soon" (whetever this means, probably this or next week) to settle the Chancellor question once and for all. Formal negotiations about a Grand coalition will most likely  start then.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #541 on: October 05, 2005, 10:38:14 AM »

Both sides agreed to meet again "soon" (whetever this means, probably this or next week) to settle the Chancellor question once and for all.

And this talk is scheduled for tomorrow.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #542 on: October 06, 2005, 11:01:49 AM »

Does this mean we'll have an answer to the "Chancellor question" soon? I'm surprised that Merkel is still an option for the CDU, given some of the scathing criticism from Merkel and Merz - who, admittedly, weren't her biggest friends in the party to begin with, but I'd like to see how someone like Merkel, who is a hugely polarising figure within her own party already can possibly hope to govern with the SPD. I still think the Chancellor should be a unifying figure, whoever that may be.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #543 on: October 06, 2005, 01:40:28 PM »

Does this mean we'll have an answer to the "Chancellor question" soon?

Today probably not. Both Merkel and Müntefering said that the talks about the Chancellorship (and other things, mostly the compensation given to the SPD for abandoning the office of the Chancellor) will go on until sunday evening. So, we will perhaps know who's going to be Germany's next Chancellor on sunday or (more likely) monday. The bets are still on Merkel, the more interesting question is what the SPD will get in return. Wink


I'm surprised that Merkel is still an option for the CDU, given some of the scathing criticism from Merkel and Merz - who, admittedly, weren't her biggest friends in the party to begin with, but I'd like to see how someone like Merkel, who is a hugely polarising figure within her own party already can possibly hope to govern with the SPD.

"Merkel and Merz"??

Well, Merkel isn't that polarising. She was just re-elected as leader of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag with 99,x (or was it "only" 97 or 98?) percent. The only one within the CDU who she is currently polarising is Friedrich Merz... or more precisely, Merz is polarising the CDU. Wink You could say that he has just effectually destroyed any chance to be a member in her cabinet, not that it was very likely anyway.

But the truth is that the CDU/CSU is determined to show no weakness whatsoever in the current talks with the SPD. Schröder is just waiting for the moment when the CDU is starting to be divided by internal conflicts.
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freek
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« Reply #544 on: October 06, 2005, 02:36:03 PM »

Current results of the Dresden I by-election (234 of 260 precincts counted)

Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 2.4%
Question: Is this THE Franz Schönhuber? As in former leader of the Republikaner-Party?
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #545 on: October 06, 2005, 02:46:14 PM »

Current results of the Dresden I by-election (234 of 260 precincts counted)

Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 2.4%
Question: Is this THE Franz Schönhuber? As in former leader of the Republikaner-Party?

Yep.

Franz Schönhuber, former member of the NSDAP, former member of the Waffen-SS, co-founder of "Die Republikaner". One of the golden oldies of Germany's neo-Nazi scene (well, the term neo-Nazi doesn't really apply in his case).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #546 on: October 06, 2005, 04:16:34 PM »

What a nice man
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #547 on: October 07, 2005, 05:10:00 AM »

Current results of the Dresden I by-election (234 of 260 precincts counted)

Franz Schönhuber (NPD): 2.4%
Question: Is this THE Franz Schönhuber? As in former leader of the Republikaner-Party?

Yep.

Franz Schönhuber, former member of the NSDAP, former member of the Waffen-SS, co-founder of "Die Republikaner". One of the golden oldies of Germany's neo-Nazi scene (well, the term neo-Nazi doesn't really apply in his case).
And former member of the CSU, and former TV journalist with the Bavarian state owned broadcaster, BR. (Of course that was before the Republikaner days.)
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afleitch
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« Reply #548 on: October 07, 2005, 06:50:13 AM »

I for one am glad he only manages 2.4%. The 50th anniversary of the Dresden bombings has been 'milked' somewhat by the German far-right. It's good to see that it has had little effect.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #549 on: October 07, 2005, 03:49:22 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2005, 05:13:52 PM by Old Europe »

Here are some rumours how the CDU is going to "buy" the Chancellery from the CDU:

1) The SPD will retain the office of the President of the Bundestag (despite the fact that the president is traditionally from the largest party in the house). The option has already been ruled out by Merkel.

2) Gerhard Schröder will become vice chancellor and/or foreign minister under Merkel. *LOL*

3) The SPD will get one (or even two) cabinet posts more than the CDU/CSU will have (because the Chancellor will already be from the CDU). For example, the CDU could get the office of the Chancellor and six ministries and the SPD seven ministries.

4) The SPD is compensated with a number of really important ministries: foreign affairs (would be theirs anyway), economy and labour, perhaps finance etc.

5) The CDU accommodates the SPD on the issues, for example by taking some of Merkel's more radical reform ideas off the table.
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