GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated
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  GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated
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Author Topic: GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated  (Read 4744 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: December 21, 2015, 06:14:59 AM »

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/12/donald-trump-2016-third-party-bid-213449

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2015, 07:29:05 AM »

It's treason then....
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Torie
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2015, 08:14:25 AM »

This forum is overrepresented by such disaffected Pubs. It's angst time. Sad
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2015, 11:04:23 AM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2015, 11:11:21 AM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Yeah......NO
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2015, 11:12:05 AM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Lol they certainly don't welcome me.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2015, 11:17:20 AM »

So the chance of a third party that draws significantly from the Republicans is now about 25%?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2015, 11:23:13 AM »

If elites in the GOP think Trump is going to lose no matter what and he may take the Senate and a lot of the House down with him, I can see them concluding that running a Republican as a third party challenge would help downballot. The logic being that it would draw out people to vote for their third party guy and the other GOP candidates. But the party itself would have to disavow it officially.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2015, 12:08:30 PM »

The logistical questions would be huge. Let's say they start right after a big Trump win on Super Tuesday. They'd need to get some guy on the ballot in all 50 states in very, very short order, and it'd have to probably be someone not currently running to not get in the way of sore loser laws, and it'd have to be someone who has no future in elected office that they'd be throwing away by ruining their reputation this way.

Basically it'd have to be Mitt Romney.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2015, 12:28:13 PM »

The logistical questions would be huge. Let's say they start right after a big Trump win on Super Tuesday. They'd need to get some guy on the ballot in all 50 states in very, very short order, and it'd have to probably be someone not currently running to not get in the way of sore loser laws, and it'd have to be someone who has no future in elected office that they'd be throwing away by ruining their reputation this way.

Basically it'd have to be Mitt Romney.

What about Huntsman?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #10 on: December 21, 2015, 12:53:15 PM »

The logistical questions would be huge. Let's say they start right after a big Trump win on Super Tuesday. They'd need to get some guy on the ballot in all 50 states in very, very short order, and it'd have to probably be someone not currently running to not get in the way of sore loser laws, and it'd have to be someone who has no future in elected office that they'd be throwing away by ruining their reputation this way.

Basically it'd have to be Mitt Romney.

What about Huntsman?

Getting three percent of the vote would not look very good.
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RI
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« Reply #11 on: December 21, 2015, 12:55:19 PM »

The logistical questions would be huge. Let's say they start right after a big Trump win on Super Tuesday. They'd need to get some guy on the ballot in all 50 states in very, very short order, and it'd have to probably be someone not currently running to not get in the way of sore loser laws, and it'd have to be someone who has no future in elected office that they'd be throwing away by ruining their reputation this way.

Basically it'd have to be Mitt Romney.

What about Huntsman?

Getting three percent of the vote would not look very good.

Any establishment third party candidate would do much worse than a Trump third party candidacy.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #12 on: December 21, 2015, 12:58:02 PM »

Of course if the GOP wanted to be cartoonishly evil, they could  rig the EC by getting on only a few  balllot lines, but then throwing everything and the kitchen sink to win those states, so nobody gets 270, and the House can simply award the presidency to the third place candidate. Very unlikely of course, but would be very amusing.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: December 21, 2015, 01:27:46 PM »

Of course if the GOP wanted to be cartoonishly evil, they could  rig the EC by getting on only a few  balllot lines, but then throwing everything and the kitchen sink to win those states, so nobody gets 270, and the House can simply award the presidency to the third place candidate. Very unlikely of course, but would be very amusing.

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?
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« Reply #14 on: December 21, 2015, 01:33:23 PM »

Of course if the GOP wanted to be cartoonishly evil, they could  rig the EC by getting on only a few  balllot lines, but then throwing everything and the kitchen sink to win those states, so nobody gets 270, and the House can simply award the presidency to the third place candidate. Very unlikely of course, but would be very amusing.

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?
It wouldn't.  The goal would be to prevent both Trump and the Democrat from getting to 270 by going all in on a few key states.
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defe07
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« Reply #15 on: December 21, 2015, 01:40:17 PM »

The only way the GOP beltway gets behind a third party challenge is if it has somebody that can go after the moderate Republican and moderate Democrat vote. Maybe a Huntsman/Webb ticket? Cheesy
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #16 on: December 21, 2015, 01:45:28 PM »

The most plausible map if the establishment GOP goes third-party/independent and gains traction:



Clinton - 512 EVs
Third Party/Independent Establishment - 14 EVs
Trump - 12 EVs
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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: December 21, 2015, 01:57:44 PM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Agreed. Anybody who wants to vote against Trump for whatever reason is pretty much welcome in my party.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #18 on: December 21, 2015, 02:17:59 PM »

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?
It wouldn't.  The goal would be to prevent both Trump and the Democrat from getting to 270 by going all in on a few key states.

If Trump is the candidate, that throws a bunch states into the Democrats' column that it would be very hard for an independent Republican to take, even with a concentrated focus.  You need to appeal to:

Heartland states (Ohio, Indiana, Missouri)
Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, Arizona)
The Nouveau Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, North Carolina)
and... oh, yeah: FLORIDA.



What candidate is going to do that?  Know of any Latino generals/admirals from Ohio?
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #19 on: December 21, 2015, 03:27:54 PM »

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?
It wouldn't.  The goal would be to prevent both Trump and the Democrat from getting to 270 by going all in on a few key states.

If Trump is the candidate, that throws a bunch states into the Democrats' column that it would be very hard for an independent Republican to take, even with a concentrated focus.  You need to appeal to:

Heartland states (Ohio, Indiana, Missouri)
Western swing states (Colorado, Nevada, Arizona)
The Nouveau Mid-Atlantic (Virginia, North Carolina)
and... oh, yeah: FLORIDA.



What candidate is going to do that?  Know of any Latino generals/admirals from Ohio?


They could try the 1836 approach if they wanted to get really creative . . .
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2015, 03:47:22 PM »

The best strategy I could think of is that they could try to back a Webb third party run if he chooses a moderate Republican (Huntsman? Kasich?) as his running mate. 

Supporting a former Democrat might be a hard pill for them to swallow, but Webb is the only shot they have of peeling away Clinton voters.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2015, 04:01:28 PM »

Any and all scenarios/possibilities that are being discussed in this thread, would involve a organizational nightmare in its attempt. With time, deadlines and the like, involving nothing but pure chaos (Rep chickens running around without a head).
It would be so messy, that Trump and any third party candidate, would lose easily.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2015, 04:19:14 PM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Uh, no you don't.  It's more en vogue to make fun of Republicans for killing off their moderates, but have you watched your own debates?  Hillary Clinton is about the most standard liberal Democrat on the planet, and she's being painted as a corporatist by her competition.  How would a candidate standing up there talking about out of control debt, too much regulation on business and cutting taxes for everyone be received??  The GOP being a bit crazier doesn't excuse the Democrats' purity tests.  Face it, to be a Democratic nominee, at the end of the day, you HAVE to play the game of getting the "middle class" to the polls.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2015, 04:34:44 PM »

The most plausible map if the establishment GOP goes third-party/independent and gains traction:



Clinton - 512 EVs
Third Party/Independent Establishment - 14 EVs
Trump - 12 EVs

UT, ID and WY will not vote against the Republican nominee.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2015, 04:35:15 PM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Uh, no you don't.  It's more en vogue to make fun of Republicans for killing off their moderates, but have you watched your own debates?  Hillary Clinton is about the most standard liberal Democrat on the planet, and she's being painted as a corporatist by her competition.  How would a candidate standing up there talking about out of control debt, too much regulation on business and cutting taxes for everyone be received??  The GOP being a bit crazier doesn't excuse the Democrats' purity tests.  Face it, to be a Democratic nominee, at the end of the day, you HAVE to play the game of getting the "middle class" to the polls.

Meh. The whole "corporatist" thing is only really a litmus test for the Bernie/Occupy wing of the party. Jim Webb was probably too far to the right for the Democratic Primary electorate, but was still more at home as a member of the party than most RINOs. The only real litmus test for Democrats by now is gay marriage, and there are exceptions to that rule as well.
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