GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated
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  GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated
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Author Topic: GOP insiders say they see 3rd party challenge if Trump is nominated  (Read 4745 times)
Cory
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« Reply #25 on: December 21, 2015, 04:43:17 PM »

Something like this would be the map. Green is for Romney/Bush/Hunstsman/Whoever.

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #26 on: December 21, 2015, 04:43:59 PM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Uh, no you don't.  It's more en vogue to make fun of Republicans for killing off their moderates, but have you watched your own debates?  Hillary Clinton is about the most standard liberal Democrat on the planet, and she's being painted as a corporatist by her competition.  How would a candidate standing up there talking about out of control debt, too much regulation on business and cutting taxes for everyone be received??  The GOP being a bit crazier doesn't excuse the Democrats' purity tests.  Face it, to be a Democratic nominee, at the end of the day, you HAVE to play the game of getting the "middle class" to the polls.

Meh. The whole "corporatist" thing is only really a litmus test for the Bernie/Occupy wing of the party. Jim Webb was probably too far to the right for the Democratic Primary electorate, but was still more at home as a member of the party than most RINOs. The only real litmus test for Democrats by now is gay marriage, and there are exceptions to that rule as well.

Plus being (generally) pro-choice, at least outside of the south.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #27 on: December 21, 2015, 04:45:08 PM »

The most plausible map if the establishment GOP goes third-party/independent and gains traction:



Clinton - 512 EVs
Third Party/Independent Establishment - 14 EVs
Trump - 12 EVs

UT, ID and WY will not vote against the Republican nominee.
Mormons absolutely despise both Trump and Clinton.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #28 on: December 21, 2015, 04:51:13 PM »

Not sure how much stock we should put in the "Party Decides" theory if GOP insiders are preparing for Trump to be the nominee.

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Uh, no you don't.  It's more en vogue to make fun of Republicans for killing off their moderates, but have you watched your own debates?  Hillary Clinton is about the most standard liberal Democrat on the planet, and she's being painted as a corporatist by her competition.  How would a candidate standing up there talking about out of control debt, too much regulation on business and cutting taxes for everyone be received?? 

A Democrat could easily get nominated talking about the debt as Obama did before he was elected, promising to cut the deficit in half. On taxes, it'd probably be more damaging to talk about repealing the Bush tax cuts on people earning <250K than it would be to vow to bring them back for people making over. I'd be curious to see whether Hillary could come out for tax cuts for millionaires tomorrow and still win the nomination. Her answer that CEOs would love her as president, which set up Sanders response that they wouldn't love him hasn't seemed to slow her down.
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« Reply #29 on: December 21, 2015, 04:55:25 PM »

I almost want this to happen just to see how the 'establishment' would react to receiving fewer votes than the LP and Constitution party.
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« Reply #30 on: December 21, 2015, 05:05:11 PM »

Of course if the GOP wanted to be cartoonishly evil, they could  rig the EC by getting on only a few  balllot lines, but then throwing everything and the kitchen sink to win those states, so nobody gets 270, and the House can simply award the presidency to the third place candidate. Very unlikely of course, but would be very amusing.

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?

Let's say (in a completely absurd hypothetical), Trump wins Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado while Hilary gets the other swing states; but Mitt Romney wages a strong campaign in Utah playing up on Mormon stuff. That would leave Trump with 269, Clinton 263 and Romney 6. Then it will be thrown to the House to elect whoever the mainstream wants. That would be a ridiculous scenario, but hypothetically it is all possible.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #31 on: December 21, 2015, 06:19:51 PM »

Any and all scenarios/possibilities that are being discussed in this thread, would involve a organizational nightmare in its attempt. With time, deadlines and the like, involving nothing but pure chaos (Rep chickens running around without a head).
It would be so messy, that Trump and any third party candidate, would lose easily.

The goal wouldn't be to win.  These folks think Trump is doomed in a 1-on-1 general election contest with Clinton anyway, so they're not really worried about whether they might end up boosting Clinton's chances of victory.

The goal would be to "preserve the brand" of individual Republican politicians, by giving them an alternative national leader to hitch their wagon to.  As explained in Greenfield's piece, they're thinking about the danger of Kirk, Ayotte, et al. being associated with a toxic figure like Trump.  So give them some alternative presidential candidate to endorse (even if that candidate has little funding, and doesn't have ballot access in all 50 states), and then after Clinton is elected and Trump is a loser, continue on as normal as a "united" GOP, hoping that Trump doesn't happen again in 2020.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #32 on: December 21, 2015, 08:54:53 PM »

The most plausible map if the establishment GOP goes third-party/independent and gains traction:



Clinton - 512 EVs
Third Party/Independent Establishment - 14 EVs
Trump - 12 EVs

UT, ID and WY will not vote against the Republican nominee.
Mormons absolutely despise both Trump and Clinton.

yyyyep

and anyway, around half of the GOP will see the establishment third party candidate as the actual Republican nominee
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IceSpear
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« Reply #33 on: December 21, 2015, 09:36:12 PM »

Of course if the GOP wanted to be cartoonishly evil, they could  rig the EC by getting on only a few  balllot lines, but then throwing everything and the kitchen sink to win those states, so nobody gets 270, and the House can simply award the presidency to the third place candidate. Very unlikely of course, but would be very amusing.

Am I misreading this - how would that prevent the Democrat from winning if he/she had 270+ EVs?

Let's say (in a completely absurd hypothetical), Trump wins Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado while Hilary gets the other swing states; but Mitt Romney wages a strong campaign in Utah playing up on Mormon stuff. That would leave Trump with 269, Clinton 263 and Romney 6. Then it will be thrown to the House to elect whoever the mainstream wants. That would be a ridiculous scenario, but hypothetically it is all possible.

Fascinating scenario, but as nefarious as the GOP can be, I doubt even they would want to go down the route of electing someone as president who received <1% of the vote.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #34 on: December 21, 2015, 10:17:53 PM »

Regardless of whether there's an actual 3rd party candidacy, I expect some disaffected GOP insiders to start floating various "faithless elector" scenarios if Trump is the nominee.  When the party leadership is at war with the party's presidential nominee, you're likely to see more attention paid to how people get chosen as electors.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #35 on: December 22, 2015, 05:15:19 AM »

Given the stellar state of the country and the absolutely fantastic job being done by members of both major political parties, I for one would welcome a viable third-party option. (And if necessary, I'll "throw away" my vote and go third party anyway; I wish people who can't be bothered to cast a ballot would consider going this route instead...). Trump is effectively tapping into unhappy members of an increasingly weary electorate, an electorate looking to move beyond traditional politics to actually get some things done. Trump may not be an ideal alternative, but he's definitely not the status quo...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #36 on: December 22, 2015, 05:18:42 AM »

Need I point out that the GOP insiders have been wrong about everything in this race so far.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #37 on: December 22, 2015, 08:40:11 AM »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 08:42:08 AM by ProudModerate2 »

Something like this would be the map. Green is for Romney/Bush/Hunstsman/Whoever.



This looks correct to me .... but with three questions/concerns about the map :

1.) Could Georgia also go to the Democratic candidate ?
2.) Could Montana also go to the Democratic candidate ?
3.) Assuming Hillary as the Democratic candidate, could Arkansas go to her ?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #38 on: February 25, 2016, 07:25:29 AM »

*bump*

Conor Friedersdorf runs through a list of the various conservative commentators who've already sworn not to support Trump here:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/will-conservatives-mount-a-third-party-challenge-if-trump-is-the-nominee/470499

He sees the 3rd party threat to Trump coming more from movement conservatives than mainstream business interests.  A good point here: How freaked out is the right that Trump will betray them?

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He suggests that they may simply threaten a third party run as leverage against him:

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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #39 on: February 25, 2016, 09:57:45 AM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Agreed. Anybody who wants to vote against Trump for whatever reason is pretty much welcome in my party.

I've already crossed over to you guys.

I will not vote for Trump no matter what. I don't like Hillary either. Normally if I don't like either major candidate then I look at third party candidates. But it's too important to me that this country not become fascist, so Hillary it is for me.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #40 on: February 25, 2016, 10:18:44 AM »

Disaffected Republicans? Democrats welcome you.

Agreed. Anybody who wants to vote against Trump for whatever reason is pretty much welcome in my party.

That's quite reasonable. After all, Hillary and Obama are effectively moderate Republicans.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #41 on: February 25, 2016, 10:38:18 AM »

That's quite reasonable. After all, Hillary and Obama are effectively moderate Republicans.

Uh, no.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #42 on: February 25, 2016, 11:00:25 AM »

That's quite reasonable. After all, Hillary and Obama are effectively moderate Republicans.

Uh, no.
"White House Vetting GOP Centrist Gov. Brian Sandoval for SCOTUS"
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/white-house-vetting-gop-centrist-gov-brian-sandoval-scotus-n525076
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They don't even both pretending, but their supporters continue to live in denial anyway.

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Holmes
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« Reply #43 on: February 25, 2016, 11:08:02 AM »

The most plausible map if the establishment GOP goes third-party/independent and gains traction:



Clinton - 512 EVs
Third Party/Independent Establishment - 14 EVs
Trump - 12 EVs

As awesome as this would be, I fear the increased turnout on the right would help in some House and Senate races Democrats need to win. Unless things get really nasty between Trump and the third party establishment , which it probably would. But I'd rather see a closer map with Dems winning more seats in Congress.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #44 on: February 25, 2016, 11:23:41 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 11:27:36 AM by Virginia »

"White House Vetting GOP Centrist Gov. Brian Sandoval for SCOTUS"
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/white-house-vetting-gop-centrist-gov-brian-sandoval-scotus-n525076
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They don't even both pretending, but their supporters continue to live in denial anyway.

So what? You're aware of the Democrats position in the US Senate? He's either doing this as part of a strategy to make Republicans look bad, or he honestly thinks it's better to fill it with a less ideological center-right individual before any conservative has a chance to fill it with another Scalia. If he truly thought that, then that wouldn't make him a 'Republican', that would make him (at least in my eyes), a Democrat/liberal making a bad decision.

Look at his record as a whole and judge him on that, not based on some action which almost certainly is not being done because he truly wants Sandoval. His past 2 picks show that. Things aren't as simple as "oh he did this, so he must be a Republican".

And look, no offense, but it's stuff like this that drives our parties apart, when people insist on labeling politicians DINOs or RINOs or flat out "Republican/Democrat-lite" based on one or two actions they didn't think were appropriate for a Democrat or Republican. It makes those people more likely to go further left or right to avoid this kind of stuff.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #45 on: February 25, 2016, 11:36:39 AM »

So basically they'll use a poison pill to self destruct if Trump is nominated and cede the WH to Hillary?

At this point, it's pretty apparent that Hillary will be our next president. If Trump loses, he runs 3rd party. If he wins, the GOP runs third party. What a time to be alive.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #46 on: February 28, 2016, 11:29:13 PM »

*bump*

Ben Sasse is (I think) the first sitting GOP senator to say that he'd vote 3rd party if Trump is the Republican nominee:

https://twitter.com/BenSasse/status/704144137973583877

https://twitter.com/BenSasse/status/704144755509305344

https://twitter.com/BenSasse/status/704148884470243329

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #47 on: February 28, 2016, 11:36:51 PM »

Sasse's full statement is up on Facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/sassefornebraska/posts/561073597391141

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Panda Express
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« Reply #48 on: February 28, 2016, 11:50:50 PM »

wow

more like ben sassy
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Maxwell
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« Reply #49 on: February 28, 2016, 11:52:10 PM »

Total nervous wreck. not gonna happen.
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