German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Michael Z]

I can't see Lafontaine's party going into a coalition with the SPD, there is simply too much bad blood there. If anything, a Grand Coalition seems more and more likely, though I wonder if Merkel would give a cabinet seat to Muentefehring - after all, another SPD party leader, Brandt, was a pivotal figure in Kiesinger's cabinet during the late 60s.

[Michael Z]

The SPD are at roughly 34% and CDU at 35%... now that's a HUGE surprise. Thing is, who's going to form the next government? CDU and FDP don't have enough combined votes for an absolute majority, the FDP have said they won't enter a coalition with Schroder's SPD and the Green Party, SPD and Left Party hate each other's guts, and even a grand coalition seems unlikely. Quo Vadis?

[Michael Z]

I wouldn't be surprised if Stoiber makes a deal behind Merkel's back and we'll see a Grand Coalition with Schroder as Chancellor and Stoiber as finance minister.  In any case, I suspect that Kirchhof's proposed 25% flat tax lost the CDU a huge amount of votes.

[Michael Z]

I never realized the CSU was so strong in Bavaria. its alimost like Alberta and Canada voting Conservative.

The CSU is virtually an institution in Bavaria. I don't think they've ever lost a single state election there.

[Michael Z]

According to sueddeutsche.de, Edmund Stoiber has stated that there are too many fundamental ideological differences between CDU/CSU and the Greens to form a coalition. Coupled with the fact that Stoiber didn't seem all that unenthusiastic about a Grand Coalition on election night, I'm pretty much convinced he's trying to sort a backroom deal with Muntefehring and Schroeder behind Merkel's back. Watch this space, as they say.

[Michael Z]

According to sueddeutsche.de, Edmund Stoiber has stated that there are too many fundamental ideological differences between CDU/CSU and the Greens to form a coalition. Coupled with the fact that Stoiber didn't seem all that unenthusiastic about a Grand Coalition on election night, I'm pretty much convinced he's trying to sort a backroom deal with Muntefehring and Schroeder behind Merkel's back. Watch this space, as they say.

Interesting. Very, very interesting...

I'm now reading that Stoiber openly criticised Merkel in a recent speech and apparently said her "cold and heartless oratory" contributed to the CDU's result.

It gets better: Peter Gauweiler, a hardline CSU member, has openly toyed with the idea of a rotating Chancellorship during the next four years, with two years of an SPD chancellor and another two of a CSU/CDU chancellor. This is going to get very interesting indeed...

Btw, the source for this is www.sueddeutsche.de (Source article) - I'm not too familiar with that paper; would the Germany-based members of the forum regard it as a reliable source of information?

[Michael Z]

Been checking some of the German news websites, and rumour has it that Schroeder is ready to relinquish the Chancellorship should the CDU decide to forebear Merkel as Chancellor. This would leave a plethora of potential candidates, including Edmund Stoiber, Christian Wulff, Roland Koch... maybe even Wolfgang Schaeuble. No matter who's Chancellor (and my gut tells me Schaeuble), Muentefehring would be Vice Chancellor in such a scenario.

[Michael Z]

I'd like to see Peter Müller, personally, but it's not gonna happen. Of course, Friedrich Merz would be great for the symbolism.

Merz as Chancellor? Half of Germany would probably emigrate if that happens. Heck, I would if I hadn't already.

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I can't see Koch either. How about Wulff, or would the SPD be risking the same problems in Lower Saxony?

Maybe that's why I think Schauble is a realistic option. Not many people particularly dislike him on either side (unlike Merkel, Stoiber or Koch), he's experienced, and from all the potential candidates he's the one least likely to cause a riot. Plus the fact that Merkel offered him a cabinet seat should he support her does suggest she regards him as something of a threat (much the same way the CDU tried to get rid of Stoiber by proposing him for the Presdential candidacy).

At the moment, only one thing seems relatively certain... Bavarian PM and 2002 election loser Edmund Stoiber has repeatedly stated that he will be a member of the new cabinet in the case of a Grand coalition.

Stoiber has been suspiciously supportive of a Grand Coalition ever since election night, which tells me that he's been brokering a backroom deal ever since, maybe even beforehand. I wouldn't put it past him, given that he's a real snake.

[Michael Z]

Merz as Chancellor? Half of Germany would probably emigrate if that happens.

Despite his extremely conservative views on economic issues, Merz is more popular among the electorate than you might think. He has a huge personality bonus.

I'm surprised, he always struck me as rather arrogant and pompous.

Damn, there's a really good article by Franz Walter on the Spiegel website, but it's not in the english miniversion, and I'm to lazy to do the translating myself. I thought about babelfishing it, but the result's unreadable.

Is there ever a babelfish translation that is readable?   I personally can read German so it's not a problem for me, but of course other members won't be able to. What's the URL for the article?

[Michael Z]

Does this mean we'll have an answer to the "Chancellor question" soon? I'm surprised that Merkel is still an option for the CDU, given some of the scathing criticism from Merkel and Merz - who, admittedly, weren't her biggest friends in the party to begin with, but I'd like to see how someone like Merkel, who is a hugely polarising figure within her own party already can possibly hope to govern with the SPD. I still think the Chancellor should be a unifying figure, whoever that may be.

[Michael Z]

I'm surprised that Merkel is still an option for the CDU, given some of the scathing criticism from Merkel and Merz - who, admittedly, weren't her biggest friends in the party to begin with, but I'd like to see how someone like Merkel, who is a hugely polarising figure within her own party already can possibly hope to govern with the SPD.

"Merkel and Merz"??

Oh, sorry, I meant Stoiber and Merz. Silly me. :-/

[Michael Z]

Foreign: Frank-Walter Steinmeier, 49 years old. Was Kanzleramtsminister (under secretary at the chancellor's office? Groping for an accurate translation into Americanospeech here...maybe just go with Chief of Staff. Not accurate but will do. ) throughout the Schröder years.

I'm confused. Wasn't Otto Shily meant to be foreign minister? At least he was when I last watched German news on, I dunno, Wednesday or Thursday.

[Michael Z]

Home - Schäuble.

Isn't that the same position he had in Kohl's cabinet?