German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

This is indeed very un-German to not have something caught up in bureaucracy, but instead to push something ahead. I don't see how this will benefit Schroeder though. Does he want to use the CDU's momentum against himself? Most of the German economic problems were caused by Kohl's (CDU) rushing re-unification, but it took the voters eight years to realize that as well. Some sort of reform is obviously needed, but as an opposition party, the CDU hasn't done any opposing at all! In 2002, the CDU actually got a fraction of a percent more votes than the SPD, but it was their coalition that saved the SPD.

No...SPD was just barely ahead of CDU+CSU. Not that it matters, it wouldn't have been enough to govern on without the Greens' lead over the FDP.

There's all this talk about "seeking a decision", "breaking the Bundesrat deadlock by seeing whom the people really prefer" and such...ridiculous. The question was answered in 2002. It's irrelevant as long as you can't motivate people in the state elections as well.

As to the CDU being seen as more competent in questions of unemployment: statistical blip. 39% of voters say that. 18% say the SPD is. Remainder says noone is. Explanation: CDU supporters liespin. Half of SPD supporters liespin.

[minionofmidas]

I have just sent an email to the Federal President, urging him to refuse new elections.

[minionofmidas]

Question: why do you think they'll calling the elections now?

I do not know.
Well I have some ideas, and most of them have been mentioned here, but it doesn't make sense at all really.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, via low low low turnout. The left will probably need to keep turnout up at 80% to win...and I don't see it right now. I just don't. Plus of course they need to keep WASG down...they scored 2.2% in NRW without any sort of TV presence.

[minionofmidas]

Federal election law has some weird things to say on parties running joint lists, though. Basically the easiest way to do that is for the PDS to run WASG candidates and WASG activists campaigning for the PDS - without the name WASG appearing anywhere on the ticket.
Problem with that is that WASG would then receive no government campaign money...

[minionofmidas]

Federal election law has some weird things to say on parties running joint lists, though. Basically the easiest way to do that is for the PDS to run WASG candidates and WASG activists campaigning for the PDS - without the name WASG appearing anywhere on the ticket.
Problem with that is that WASG would then receive no government campaign money...

Yeah, that´s the same problem NPD and DVU were facing.

Perhaps the WASG will have to decide whether they run alone without the support from the PDS or Lafontaine, but receiving some campaign money or running together with the PDS, getting extra support from Lafontaine and finally some of their members into the Bundestag.

But we will see... it´s too early too say what exactly will happen over the next four years.

Or months.

[minionofmidas]

...and to run for WASG and/or PDS, if they want him to.

[minionofmidas]

They did very badly in NRW...

[minionofmidas]

What's up with all this talk about the PDS? It's very doubtful they'll make any difference. The grand coalition of extreme right-wing parties has better chances of benefitting from voter disillusionment.

Nope. NPD/DVU should be glad when they receive 1% of the vote. The PDS, on the other hand, has a real chance to get back into the Bundestag. Especially if they manage to get Gysi and/or Lafontaine on their ticket. Each man alone could mean a real boost for the party.

1%? You're being very optimistic (pessimistic for them). I don't see how they can crack 5%, but 1% should not be a problem.
As for the left...Gysi's said he doesn't believe in an alliance getting forged. He says there's not enough time. EMNID says such an alliance could poll up to 8%.

[minionofmidas]

Schill got 0.9% though, much of that from their kind of voter.
Plus of course, back then the NPD was lying low in fear of getting banned. They're much stronger as an organization now.

[minionofmidas]

I see that Saxony was the only state in the former East to elect the CDU in 2002. Is this because of the religion divide like you said?

No, not really, considering how secular the east is. I would say that Saxony´s support for the CDU stems mainly from the popularity of the first minister-president (prime minister) after the end of the GDR, Kurt "King Kurt" Biedenkopf, who governed the state from 1990 to 2002. He basically turned Saxony into a CDU stronghold. Interestingly, the CDU lost its absolute majority (+50%) in the first state election after Biedenkopf´s resignation. So, we will have too see whether Saxony will stay so strongly pro-CDU in the future or not.

Same thing with the CDU districts in the NE corner of the state...Berndt Seite and Angela Merkel forged loyalties there.
The CDU district in Thuringia, though, is due to the religious divide. That's the one major Catholic area in the East.

[minionofmidas]

Some news from the campaign:

2) There are growing tensions between the SPD and the Greens. Apparently, the SPD tries to get rid of the Greens by pissing them off so much that they either leave the coalition or vote against Schröder in the vote of confidence. This is probably another indication that the SPD is hoping for a grand coalition after this election.

If they want to form a coalition why would they deliberately antagonize another party? Does a grand coalition mean CDU+SPD or is it between all the parties?

Its sad to see the famous "Red/Green" Coalition breakup this way

"Grand Coalition" means CDU and SPD.

[minionofmidas]

Ebert is a German name. Most Germans' names can't be clued to a region. Tho' the most famous Ebert in German history was certainly a Protestant. Friedrich Ebert, Social Democrat President of Germany from 1919 to 1925.

[minionofmidas]

...except for interviews in the Frankfurter Rundschau, where Lothar Bisky and some WASG guy both say there are talks, there are problems, and the chance of a joint list is about 50/50. The WASG guy adds about 20% of the membership have grave misgivings about the idea and he fears many of them might actually leave if it goes through.

[minionofmidas]

In German.

[minionofmidas]

I hope Lewis doesn´t kill me for that one.

Only if you buy the weapon and pay me train fare.

[minionofmidas]

United Left. Sounds cool. Sounds Atlasian.

[minionofmidas]

Unfortunately the Spanish commies have had it for longer...

[minionofmidas]

"Das angestrebte Linksbündnis aus PDS und WASG kann sich laut einer aktuellen Umfrage gute Chancen bei einer vorgezogenen Bundestagswahl ausrechnen.
Laut ZDF-Politbarometer könnten sich 18 Prozent der Wahlberechtigten vorstellen, ein solches Linksbündnis zu wählen. Für 79 Prozent käme dies nicht in Frage. Dabei ziehen 15 Prozent der SPD- und 21 Prozent der Grünen-Anhänger eine solche Wahlentscheidung in Betracht, im Vergleich zu sieben Prozent der Unions- und neun Prozent der FDP-Anhänger."

In English, in brief: 18% of voters consider it imaginable to ever vote for such a new far-left party (not at all the same thing as intend to vote for it): 21% of Green voters, 15% of SPD voters, 9% of FDP voters (), 7% of CDU/CSU voters. I'd like to see a regional breakdown on these last two.

[minionofmidas]

They could try DPS

That was the Saarland state FDP's name in the 50`s and 60's!

[minionofmidas]

How detailed do you want it?
Here's an overview of relevant law (in German)

[minionofmidas]

How detailed do you want it?
Here's an overview of relevant law (in German)

I'll explain what I think I know.   I'm not at all clear about what aspects are handled at a state level, and which are handle nationally.

1/2 MPs are elected from single member constituencies, the other half from (national/state?)

state.

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Nationwide. A party that wins three direct seats is exempted from the threshold.

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Yes.

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Total seats are apportioned on the basis of the list vote (national total). These are then apportioned onto the state lists in a second step.

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Yes. Notice that significant turnout differences between states also may make this more likely (since the no. of direct seats in the state is fixed but the total no. of seats per state is not.) Parties may keep these extra seats. However, if any extra MPs die or resign, they are not replaced.

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No. Or not necessarily (in practice, the CDU, SPD and FDP lists usually are, more or less, though the Green and CSU lists are not. Don't ask me why.)

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Actually, there is one directly elected Green, Hans-Christian Ströbele, elected in Berlin Kreuzberg/Friedrichshain/Prenzlauer Berg Ost. Also, I think that rather less than half the CDU MPSs were directly elected.

[minionofmidas]

To receive list MPs a party must receive 5% or more of the list votes.  Is this 5% nationwide or statewide?

Nationwide. A party that wins three direct seats is exempted from the threshold.

This happened for PDS, didn't it?  If a party misses the threshold, then it leaves states where it had higher support, under-represented?

That happened for PDS in 1994. In 1998, they had over 5% of the vote anyways. In 2002, they only won 2 direct seats. They've only two MPs right now. And yes, the East is underrepresented in the current German Bundestag. (Then again, it was overrepresented in the last one, thanks to Überhangmandate, see below.)

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Total seats are apportioned on the basis of the list vote (national total). These are then apportioned onto the state lists in a second step.[/quote]
Is this complicated, or is it simply a matter of allocating seats based on the number of votes in a each combination of state and lists (eg if there were 1000 seats, and a party in a state would receive as many seats as it had 0.1% of the national vote share).  But the simple method might discriminate against smaller parties in the smaller states like Bremen or Saarland.[/quote]Remember that Germany uses Hare-Niemeyer, not D'Hondt. Still, it's pretty difficult for the Bremen FDP to ever win a seat. It is done in two steps, not one (since the 5% threshold is applied nationwide, a party's nationwide tally is added up anyways, so why not use it?)

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Yes. Notice that significant turnout differences between states also may make this more likely (since the no. of direct seats in the state is fixed but the total no. of seats per state is not.) Parties may keep these extra seats. However, if any extra MPs die or resign, they are not replaced.[/quote]
Votes for parties that don't reach the threshold effectively count as non-turnout?  So if PDS misses the threshold, the eastern states are considered to have lower turnout?[/quote]In a sense, yes. It's not what I meant though - they also have lower turnout anyways.

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The latter.

[minionofmidas]

How detailed do you want it?
Here's an overview of relevant law (in German)

For an English description of the German electoral system just go to page 1 of this thread and click on the first link in my first posting there.

That would have been too easy, though.

[minionofmidas]

Thank you for the elaboration.

Haven't been to Germany in a loooong time.  Back then there were two Germanies.

I did get the impression at that time (don't know to what extent its true today) that the parties were largely occupationally based (manual workers = Social Democrats, Farmer = CDU/CSU, professionals = Free Democrats).

In a way...
If that were literally true, though, there wouldn't be much of a CDU/CSU left.