German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thread stickied. Post polls etc. here

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early predictions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gotta admit that from a U.K perspective this seems weird...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But just imagine the Tories would win both the Scottish and and Welsh regional elections at the same time...

Pigs would be flying

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey, after all NRW was considered THE SPD stronghold, governed by them for the last 40 years. Only a few years ago it would have been considered totally absurd that the CDU could win an election there.

In Westminster elections the last time the Tories won the most votes in Scotland was back in the '50's (they might have been second in seats though). Last time the Tories won the most seats in Wales... er... well... maybe 1900. Not sure about that... if not then it was in the 19th Century.

The nearest parrallel I can think of with the SPD calling an election now, would be Wilson calling an election in 1968... just after Labour were all but wiped out in local (council) elections; no councillers in Birmingham for one thing. Tories even won the Scotswood ward in Newcastle...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, like I said, that´s very unusual for Germany.

Doesn't happen here either; Wilson (for some funny reason) decided to wait until 1970 before calling the election. He still lost, but it was fairly close and he bounced back in '74 (Feb).

This whole thing is weird... does Schröder know something no one else does?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constrast Schroeder's behavior with Berlusconi's-- the one voluntarily giving up power a year ahead of time, even deliberately losing a vote of confidence, the other scrambling to hell and back to stay in the PM spot for as long as possible.

Now Berlusconi is acting just like John Major towards the end

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How exactly is the CDU supposed to be better for unemployment? I thought discontent with the SPD was due to its labor market reforms. If anything, the CDU would push those reforms even harder.

*shrug*

That's voters for you

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Question: why do you think they'll calling the elections now?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember the New York Times saying within the past 2 years that Germany at the present time resembles Britain in the 1970's

No it's nothing like that at all. By the late '70's the underlying economic problems had been more-or-less solved; what did for Labour was a wave of public sector strikes and the minor parties voting like "turkeys voting for an early Christmas" in a vote of no-confidence.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a map showing the current state of the parties ?

Results of the last election in the direct seats:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They could try DPS

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any recent polls?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh. Any chance of Schroeder getting dumped by his party, or does that sort of thing not happen in Germany?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Go to my first posting on page 1 of this topic. There are two links which lead to sites where the latest poll results are summerized.

I've had a look and... eek!

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Anyone who's not Müntefering ot Schroeder? I would recommend my cat, but she died a few months ago

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No. All those who could be considered "rising stars" in the SPD aren´t supid enough to waste their chances in this election. They´re all waiting for Schröder to lose, so that the field is clear for 2009.

Fair enough. Could one of their cats run then?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

Bloody hell

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the polling numbers in all the states?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4717025.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The charts the political compass people do are so bad they're laughable

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, yes, that.

Didn't hurt the U.K's German MP (Gisela Stuart, Lab, Brum Edgbaston)... and that wasn't just percieved support

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently there's been flooding in parts of Germany

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not sure (although it'd be more a tie than a lead if such a coalition was possible... can't see Schroeder and Lafontine in the same government for some reason...) but a Grand Coalition looks a definate possibility.