Should the pattern of 2008 and 2012 hold, then Hillary Clinton could win despite losing 50.1-49.5 in the popular vote. It would all boil down to Colorado, Iowa, or Virginia.
Based upon 2004, 2008, and 2012 results. Kerry could have gotten an even shift of votes and won Ohio with less than a plurality of the popular vote. 2008? Although winning by Reagan-like margins in some of the states that he won he lost with McGovern-like margins in many of the states that he lost. 2012? His wins were shallower, but his losses were even worse.
Until I start seeing polls that show Hillary Clinton doing significantly better in states that Obama lost by huge margins and doing worse than Obama in states that he won, the political realities of the states indicate that Democrats still have an edge in a 50-50 Presidential election... an inverse of the reality with the House.
