which is more likely to go Republican first?

[MaC]

vote and discuss

[A18]

I always wondered... did they ever poll DC in presidential elections prior to 1964, just to get the results? It'd be interesting to get that data.

[bgwah]

Uhh, Long Island. Isn't it kind of obvious?

[A18]

However, it's highly unlikely that either ever will.

[7,052,770]

Long Island by default I suppose

[MasterJedi]

Long Island easily, there's really no contest here!

[jokerman]

Long Island by far

[Alcon]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

[A18]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

Err... how do you define Long Island? I thought it included New York County and such.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You're confusing Manhattan Island with Long Island.

[Alcon]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

Err... how do you define Long Island? I thought it included New York County and such.

CARLHAYDEN is right - generally, Long Island is considered to be Nassau and Suffolk counties, which voted 52-47 and 49-49 Kerry, respectively. Although on a map it looks like Queens is part of Long Island, I've never heard anyone include it.

[nclib]

Queens and Brooklyn are technically part of Long Island, though Alcon is right that Long Island is considered to be just Suffolk and Nassau counties.

Of course I voted Long Island in the poll.

[Alcon]

Queens and Brooklyn are technically part of Long Island, though Alcon is right that Long Island is considered to be just Suffolk and Nassau counties.

Of course I voted Long Island in the poll.

By that definition of Long Island, it was 62%-36%. Still no competition.

This definition was actually quite close in 1988, voting Dukakis only 52%-47%.

Long Island is still the obvious choice.

[Lincoln Republican]

I'd definitely pick Long Island. 

When Republican presidential candidates are polling 10 to 13 percent of the african american vote, there is no way the GOP will win in DC.

[Smash255]

Long Island was very Republican as recently as 1988. My vote is Long Island, easily.

Err... how do you define Long Island? I thought it included New York County and such.

CARLHAYDEN is right - generally, Long Island is considered to be Nassau and Suffolk counties, which voted 52-47 and 49-49 Kerry, respectively. Although on a map it looks like Queens is part of Long Island, I've never heard anyone include it.

Had very much to do with 9/11.  In both 96 & 2000 Long Island (Nassau & Suffolk) went Dem by double digits with Nassau hovering right around the 20% mark.  The only Republican right now who could win Long Island in a Presidential election is Giuliani & well his chances of getting the nomination are about as good as me hitting the lotto (Their won't be any 9/11 carry-over in 08 or an y other future election).  In 08 Long Island (Nassau & Suffolk) will go back to the Safe Dem category, but compared to well D.C it is more liley to go to the GOP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Maybe 1996 and 2000 were the unusal results?

[Ebowed]

I always wondered... did they ever poll DC in presidential elections prior to 1964, just to get the results? It'd be interesting to get that data.

Seconded.  Anyone know if such data exists?

[Smash255]

Maybe 1996 and 2000 were the unusal results?

The area has shifted Democrat.  Most the Congressman on LI use to be Republican (late 80's or early 90's it was 4 out of 5 Gop)  Now the Congressional breakdown of LI is 4 of 5 Democrat.  Both county executives were Republican for a longtime, both are now Democrat as well as the Nassau Co Legislature.  Nassau County Executive Yom Suozzi won election in an open seat by a 2-1 margin in 2001 & will win in a landslide in 2005.

If you look at the difference from the Natl Average you can see  a rather strong leftward slide since the 80's in Nassau & Suffolk that it wasn't just 96 & 00 & that 2004 shift back was promarily do to 9/11.  Nassau saw a slight left shift between 80 & 84 then started really shifting after 88, Suffolk started shifting after 88


1980
Nassau 11.5% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk   14.0% more GOP than Natl average

1984 
Nassau 5.6% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk 14.1% more GOP than Natl average

1988
Nassau 7.1% more GOP than Natl average
Suffolk  14.1% more GOP than Natl average

1992
Nassau .3% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 7.1% more GOP than Natl average

1996
Nassau 11.1% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 7.2% more Dem than Natl average

2000
Nassau  18.9% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk 10.4% more Dem than Natl average

2004
Nassau 8.1% more Dem than Natl average
Suffolk  3.5% more Dem than Natl average

Overall I would say Nassau is 15-20% more Dem than the Natl average & Suffolk is about 10% more Dem than the Natl average.  The 9/11 impact had alot to do with the 04 shift back rightward, but when you look at the other results in Long Island races (Congressional, County Execs) you will see it has gone Dem & is not shifting back

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What sort of poll is this?
Obviously Guilani would win Long Island.

[AuH2O]

If DC was nuked and only the White House people that got the bunker survived, then it would go Republican.

[Erc]

The New York Suburbs have shifted to the Democrats strongly in the past few decades.

Look at New York in 1976 for example...Ford only lost by 4 points or so, and won Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk.

The Democrats have also made some inroads upstate, but it's not as significant as the trend in the suburbs.

If the Republican Party drops its harsh social conservatism, it could definitely make inroads in the suburbs and reverse the trend we've seen in the last decade or two.

[Smash255]

The New York Suburbs have shifted to the Democrats strongly in the past few decades.

Look at New York in 1976 for example...Ford only lost by 4 points or so, and won Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk.

The Democrats have also made some inroads upstate, but it's not as significant as the trend in the suburbs.

If the Republican Party drops its harsh social conservatism, it could definitely make inroads in the suburbs and reverse the trend we've seen in the last decade or two.

Their was a actually movement back rightwards between 76 & 1980.  Their was slight movemnt in Nassau to the left in the early 80's, but it evened at shortly after that for the rest of the 80's.  Nassau, Suffolk &  Westchester all went through a sharp swing leftward in the 90's starting with the 92 election.

[patrick1]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

[Smash255]

Nassau is not a liberal bastion at all.  The county still elects conservative judges and state senators. Further, Suozzi is not liked by a good proportion of people.

Whuile having the Republican label many of those State Senators & Judges that get elected are quite Moderate.  As far as Suozzi not being well liked?  Where exactly are you getting that from??  Suozzi is going to win re-election in a landslide, the talk is basically about whatever the GOP puts up against him is nothing other than a sacrafical lamb

[Smash255]

Another reason is Incumbeny factor.  In many of the smaller type positions such as State Senators & Judges the Incumbency factor tends to be very strong.  Once you see more people in these seats retiring you will see more Dems fill the seats, along the lines of what has happened to the Nassau County Legislature which now is slightly Dem, but use to be very heavily Republican.