Fox Biz Jan 14 Debate Criteria - Top 6 National or Top 5 in IA/NH

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.

[Sorenroy]

If, by some kind of Christmas miracle, Gilmore got 1% in a poll somewhere, then the undercard could end up with more candidates (assuming Pataki and Santorum also still has some poll with 1% somewhere)

IIRC, Gilmore got 3% in a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll.

If by "recent" you mean a month ago in a single outlier poll. Gilmore hasn't polled at even 1% in any of the 22 recognized polls since then.

Also, the poll in question: http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTrackingCorePolitical112515.pdf

[Green Line]

Why is the RNC putting debates on Fox Business?  Are they trying to hide their candidates from the general public?  Don't answer that question.

[Likely Voter]

Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.

Well if you look at the last national poll and the last 3 NH polls, Christie is ahead of Bush. So if anyone is pushing anyone out it the other way around. But for Bush to get pushed entirely out it will take Kasich, Paul or Fiorina to make some gains.

[This account no longer in use.]

Why is the RNC putting debates on Fox Business?  Are they trying to hide their candidates from the general public?  Don't answer that question.

something something debbie wasserman schultz

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush has extra incentive to attack Christie immediately and try and knock him from main debate.

Well if you look at the last national poll and the last 3 NH polls, Christie is ahead of Bush. So if anyone is pushing anyone out it the other way around. But for Bush to get pushed entirely out it will take Kasich, Paul or Fiorina to make some gains.

Yeah, I retract that. Bush will attack Christie and Rubio anyway because he's trying to beat them in New Hampshire but seems unlikely to keep him out of this debate.

[defe07]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Don't forget that Iowa has a good ground game for the Paulites, just something to ponder on... Plus, you do know we still have time for another shuffling around in the polls. If the IA caucus were held on this same date 4 years ago, Santorum wouldn't have won IA, for example. So I think we might see a surprise or 2 yet!

[mencken]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Don't forget that Iowa has a good ground game for the Paulites, just something to ponder on... Plus, you do know we still have time for another shuffling around in the polls. If the IA caucus were held on this same date 4 years ago, Santorum wouldn't have won IA, for example. So I think we might see a surprise or 2 yet!

Santorum was polling better at this point than Paul is now. I am as perplexed as you are as to how 10% of the Republican electorate can up and disappear (a good share might have like me jettisoned him for Cruz or Trump), but I do not see it coming back unless Rand Paul lives in Iowa for the next month (and even then, his time would be better spent in New Hampshire).

[EliteLX]

Oh sweet Mary this is wonderful!

Glad to get the top six in the primetime debate, should be fun.

[Maxwell]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Don't forget that Iowa has a good ground game for the Paulites, just something to ponder on... Plus, you do know we still have time for another shuffling around in the polls. If the IA caucus were held on this same date 4 years ago, Santorum wouldn't have won IA, for example. So I think we might see a surprise or 2 yet!

Santorum was polling better at this point than Paul is now. I am as perplexed as you are as to how 10% of the Republican electorate can up and disappear (a good share might have like me jettisoned him for Cruz or Trump), but I do not see it coming back unless Rand Paul lives in Iowa for the next month (and even then, his time would be better spent in New Hampshire).

I actually disagree with this assumption. New Hampshire, ideally, sounds like a good fit for a Paul-like character, but it's already being trampled by Trump, Christie, Bush, Kasich, most people are jockeying here hoping New Hampshire will save them. Iowa is only being fought for by Ted Cruz and maybe some of the religious conservatives, but they are gaining no traction. At this point, Rand Paul would have less of a fight if he just staked it all in Iowa.

[mencken]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Don't forget that Iowa has a good ground game for the Paulites, just something to ponder on... Plus, you do know we still have time for another shuffling around in the polls. If the IA caucus were held on this same date 4 years ago, Santorum wouldn't have won IA, for example. So I think we might see a surprise or 2 yet!

Santorum was polling better at this point than Paul is now. I am as perplexed as you are as to how 10% of the Republican electorate can up and disappear (a good share might have like me jettisoned him for Cruz or Trump), but I do not see it coming back unless Rand Paul lives in Iowa for the next month (and even then, his time would be better spent in New Hampshire).

I actually disagree with this assumption. New Hampshire, ideally, sounds like a good fit for a Paul-like character, but it's already being trampled by Trump, Christie, Bush, Kasich, most people are jockeying here hoping New Hampshire will save them. Iowa is only being fought for by Ted Cruz and maybe some of the religious conservatives, but they are gaining no traction. At this point, Rand Paul would have less of a fight if he just staked it all in Iowa.

I thought about this for a minute before my post. It certainly complicates matters, but I don't think Paul has as much appeal with Christie/Bush/Kasich voters as he does with Cruz voters.

[EliteLX]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Don't forget that Iowa has a good ground game for the Paulites, just something to ponder on... Plus, you do know we still have time for another shuffling around in the polls. If the IA caucus were held on this same date 4 years ago, Santorum wouldn't have won IA, for example. So I think we might see a surprise or 2 yet!

Santorum was polling better at this point than Paul is now. I am as perplexed as you are as to how 10% of the Republican electorate can up and disappear (a good share might have like me jettisoned him for Cruz or Trump), but I do not see it coming back unless Rand Paul lives in Iowa for the next month (and even then, his time would be better spent in New Hampshire).

I actually disagree with this assumption. New Hampshire, ideally, sounds like a good fit for a Paul-like character, but it's already being trampled by Trump, Christie, Bush, Kasich, most people are jockeying here hoping New Hampshire will save them. Iowa is only being fought for by Ted Cruz and maybe some of the religious conservatives, but they are gaining no traction. At this point, Rand Paul would have less of a fight if he just staked it all in Iowa.

I thought about this for a minute before my post. It certainly complicates matters, but I don't think Paul has as much appeal with Christie/Bush/Kasich voters as he does with Cruz voters.

Paul has many cross-over appeals with his large umbrella of conservatism.

Young anti-Clinton not-far-left-enough-for-Bernie voters, internet millennials/gen-x'ers, strict fiscal conservatives, non-interventionists, libertarians,  .etc. These demographics swing between Iowa and New Hampshire, it's just sadly not strong enough of a coalition to give him enough oxygen in either state to get traction, and him half-assing his campaign has exhausted his "base".

If he were to somehow be the front-runner, he would garner a lot of support from some of Jebs supporters, Cruz's supporters, maybe some Kasich (slightly more moderate on foreign policy) fans, .etc.

[Senator Cris]

New rankings after CNN national poll


MAIN DEBATE:

Bush Rubio Trump Cruz Carson Christie

EARLY DEBATE:

Santorum Fiorina Kasich Paul Huckabee Pataki

[pho]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

This. Removing Fiorina's shrill, anodyne nonsense and John Kasich's whining about divisiveness would be a huge platform upgrade.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Unless Paul somehow manages to surge in Iowa before the debate, I think he's toast.

Also very excited for a non-Kasich, non-Fiorina, non-Paul debate.

Nah, Paul really needs Jeb! to tank in Iowa. I don't see how Paul makes up over 2% on his own.

As a Rubio supporter, I like having Paul at the debates to hold Rubio's feet to the fire on fiscal conservatism as Rubio rises in the polls. I hope he makes it in somehow.

Without Kasich and Fiorina, I expect Christie (and maybe Bush?) to capitalize.

The undercard will be full of interruptions and probably not very much worth watching. But maybe Rand will get more time to speak.

[Torie]

Will being pushed to the kiddie table push any of Fiorina, Kasich, or Paul to drop out of the race?  Paul was talking about "making an announcement about his candidacy" back when he looked likely to be demoted to the kiddie table at the last debate.

Paul should drop out soon. Kasich I suspect will go before NH, and maybe even Iowa. Fiorina leaves after NH, along with Bush. That all seems fairly obvious. What is not obvious is what Carson will do, and whom he will support. He seems to me by far the most important imponderable in the race. Otherwise, it's Rubio/Christie versus Trump/Cruz. Things are beginning to sort out now - finally. It's down to a Manichean race between the good force and the bad force, ala Star Wars or the Lord of the Rings. Will the Pubs embrace Saroun or Gandalf? It's becoming an epic!

[Likely Voter]

Paul says no kiddie table for him...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/rand-paul-i-wont-participate-in-undercard-debate#.ilYppJgkWB

Remember right before the CNN debate Paul said he had an announcement to make, and some in the media thought it was a drop out thing. It was probably that he wasn't going to go to the kiddie table. And maybe CNN got wind of this and changed their rules literally at the last minute because they didn't want Paul's demotion and refusal to become the story, and because they knew Paul is good for at least one dramatic debate moment.  

And maybe Paul thinks he can bully his way into the next debate too, but I don't think it will work this time.

[Likely Voter]

assuming ARG is included in NH polling Kasich now makes it into the main debate.



And if Paul is serious then we have gone from six main six kiddie to seven main and four kiddie in just one day. And if the two polls one poll where Pataki gets 1% rolls out without being replaced, The kiddie table could end up with just Santorum, Fiorina and Huckabee (assuming none of them drop out and Kasich holds on)

[The Other Castro]

I wouldn't be so sure ARG will be used, I don't think RCP uses them for poll averages.

[Likely Voter]

we won't know until the last day, however they said live phone and last time they accepted TIPP which isn't exactly to top tier pollster either. As we go along I can post with and without ARG to see what difference it makes. As of now ARG is Kasich's favorite pollster.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Paul says no kiddie table for him...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/rand-paul-i-wont-participate-in-undercard-debate#.ilYppJgkWB

Remember right before the CNN debate Paul said he had an announcement to make, and some in the media thought it was a drop out thing. It was probably that he wasn't going to go to the kiddie table. And maybe CNN got wind of this and changed their rules literally at the last minute because they didn't want Paul's demotion and refusal to become the story, and because they knew Paul is good for at least one dramatic debate moment.  

And maybe Paul thinks he can bully his way into the next debate too, but I don't think it will work this time.

The people determine whether you are a first-tier campaign, and the people are clearly not interested.

[Cruzcrew]

Rand Paul announced he would not participate in the undercard debate but I'm hoping that he somehow makes it to the national debates as he's an important voice to have: foreign policy and spending wise. His path to the debates is A: Carson collapses nationally just in time for the 5 last national polls B: Jeb declines about 2% nationally C: Jeb declines about 1 or 2% in iowa.

[The Other Castro]

Pataki's current 1% in a single poll comes from Monmouth, which is the oldest poll in the 5 poll criteria. So, although he currently qualifies, one of the additional polls that comes out before the deadline will also have to have him at 1%.

[PresidentTRUMP]

It's about time they cut it down. Would like to see it even smaller than 6. Maybe just the top 4 or 5. But this is better than 9 or 10.

Wish they would just get ride of the undercard debate at this point its absurd.

[This account no longer in use.]

Current standings:

Donald J. Trump | 36.2% | 28.8% | 25.0%
Ted Cruz            | 18.8% | 30.2% | 11.4%
Marco Rubio       | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.8%
Ben Carson        | 9.2%   | 8.6%   | 6.2%
Jeb Bush            | 4.6%   | 4.6%   | 7.8%
Chris Christie     | 4.6%   | 2.4%   | 10.8%
John Kasich       | 2.0%   | 1.4%   | 8.4%
Carly Fiorina      | 2.6%   | 2.6%   | 4.0%
Rand Paul          | 2.4%   | 2.8%   | 3.8%
Mike Huckabee  | 1.6%   | 2.2%   | 0.6%
Rick Santorum  | 1.0%   | 0.4%   | 0.2%
George Pataki    | 0%     | 0.4%   | 0.2%

Gilmore is polling 0% everywhere.