Rubio or Christie?
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  Rubio or Christie?
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Poll
Question: Who is more likely to win the GOP nomination?
#1
Rubio
 
#2
Christie
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 52

Author Topic: Rubio or Christie?  (Read 1015 times)
The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« on: December 22, 2015, 06:40:52 PM »

It appears that Christie may be able to make a resurgence and become the de facto establishment/moderate candidate should Rubio fail. With Rubio, Christie, Kasich, and Bush splitting the same bloc in New Hampshire, the party may fall behind one so that that candidate may defeat Trump. In my opinion, Bush and Kasich can no longer be that person but it is still up in the air who will come out on top between Rubio and Christie. What do you think?
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2015, 06:52:49 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2015, 06:55:10 PM by Bull Moose Base »

I think we should do a poll between which is the better Rubio vs Christie, thread, this one or that one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225150.0

Or maybe even that one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225178.0

Anyway, here's Christie and Morning Joe teaming up to attack Rubio.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/chris-christie-marco-rubio-attack-217057

I don't completely dismiss Bush and Kasich's chances in this scrum, especially Bush who still has more money to spend that Christie but I agree Rubio and Christie are more likely to win this division, with Rubio more likely than Christie.

EDIT: Oh the nomination! My mistake. I thought you meant who will beat the other in New Hampshire. I voted Rubio on that one. More likely nominee is Rubio by a mile. As usual, Atlas is wrong.
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Fuzzy Won't Cover Up Biden's Senility
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2015, 06:55:15 PM »

I view Christie as damaged goods.  Rubio comes from a state the party desperately needs to carry, and Christie comes from a state that is less likely to vote for him if he's leading the ticket, and not very likely to go Republican.  That being said, I am impressed by Christie's resurgence.  It's not beyond possibility that he'll be the nominee.  It's certainly more possible that Christie will be the nominee than Rand Paul (unfortunately).
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: December 23, 2015, 03:24:06 AM »

Rubio is the most likely nominee at all.
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Krago
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« Reply #4 on: December 23, 2015, 04:42:23 PM »

Rubio or Christie?  In New Hampshire, it's Kasich.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/nhrep.html
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: December 23, 2015, 05:25:00 PM »

Vox takes a look at the four way race to be Mr. Establishment...
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10660186/marco-rubio-jeb-bush-chris-christie

No conclusions, just mapping out how each of them is in contention for the crown.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: December 23, 2015, 06:07:22 PM »


>citing ARG

seriously, time for the ban hammer.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2015, 06:33:59 PM »

Vox takes a look at the four way race to be Mr. Establishment...
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10660186/marco-rubio-jeb-bush-chris-christie

No conclusions, just mapping out how each of them is in contention for the crown.

This points out what people are overlooking: Bush and Kasich at the bottom of the pile are in easy striking range of Christie and Rubio at the top, (and of Cruz who is tied with them). In theory, Bush, having the most money, should be able to spend his way to the top, but his spending has been completely ineffective. Also, because it's all SuperPAC $ and campaign $ gets better rates, Rubio will be able to hang with him in ads. I briefly thought Kasich being excluded from the Trump Debate would cut off his oxygen but on the other hand, Kasich boosted his numbers by spending in NH even before the first debate. And Christie similarly didn't seem hurt by one debate demotion.

My bet is still Rubio to do best of these 4. I think the press about him neglecting traditional campaigning was a lucky break in that it alerted him to course-correct. I think Christie will have a glass jaw to attack ads. Not sure what Bush's favorables among NH Republicans are but my hunch is probably too low with too little time to fix. I'd bet Romney will endorse Rubio in January. He reportedly likes Kasich and holds no grudge against Christie but it just seems Rubio is his favorite. Trump would unleash a fit about Romney choking in 2012 and Rubio being a puppet, but that probably wouldn't hurt Rubio among the voters deciding between these 4. There's a chance Rubio could catch Trump, a better chance he could pull ahead Cruz but even if he did neither, he'd winnow his lane. Predictions aside, I'm rooting for Christie to win this division. Hard to imagine Cruz not being a finalist but Trump and Christie alsbeing final three and throwing down in March with high stakes would be glorious.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2015, 07:28:00 PM »

Not sure what Bush's favorables among NH Republicans are but my hunch is probably too low with too little time to fix.

The latest Franklin Pierce poll gives the four “establishment candidates” the following fav/unfav #s in New Hampshire:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2015/12/17/FPU-BH-Dec-15-REPUBLICAN%20SLIDES-1.pdf

Rubio 65/26% for +39%
Christie 64/30% for +34% (he was at 43/46 in March, so a big turnaround in the past 9 months)
Bush 53/42% for +11%
Kasich 43/39% for +4%

Meanwhile, the Associated Industries of Florida poll (no idea how accurate these guys are, as they have no track record) puts Bush underwater, at 39%/48%:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225168.msg4837569#msg4837569
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2015, 08:33:39 PM »

Rubio.  Christie still doesn't have much of a chance.
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