PA Map (in my opinion)

[bullmoose88]

Montco and delaware (more of a stretch here) aren't liberal...(at least yet)  I'd put them as Left libertarian...bucks is straight up libertarian, and chester is probably right libertarian (you should have shades of each).


now if flyers could do a SEPA map...

[bullmoose88]

I need a map...and while I'm very familar at bucks co politics...I'd need to do a crash course on the rest of the region to get really really specific.

[bullmoose88]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

[bullmoose88]

We have to see if that increase in GOP vote share is due to party or candidate.

Dent is WAAAAY more moderate than Toomey.

But does that make the district moderate? No. Look at the 2004 and 2002 numbers. If Dent being more moderate means that the district is much more moderate, why did it only go for Dent by two points more than it did for Toomey?

That area is growing rapidly. I spend a good amount of time there (I have family who reside in the area). Economic conservatives (young professionals) who stay pretty close to the area's social conservative roots.

Ahem...the fact that Dent didn't run against Ed O'Brien (gah...a corpse could beat him)...might explain why the democrats were able to dampen the moderate advantage

[bullmoose88]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

[bullmoose88]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere.    Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...)

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

[bullmoose88]

Well Schrader was supposed to be a sacrificial offering to Greenwood...She would have been fortunate to get anything higher than the high 30% range against Jim.

Yet people, including yourself, thought she had the ability to win the seat once Greenwood announced he was leaving.

An opportunity...certainly better than what she had against Jim...depending on who fawkes ran...rumor was for years that he wanted an arch conservative to run...(Greenwood in the seat wasn't what he wanted in the first place)...

[bullmoose88]

Would you mind finding some quotes from me...I need some egg on my face every once in a while...

probably some "the sky is falling hysteria"...I really wanted Tomlinson to be the guy...but Fitz has won county wide elections in the past...so I couldn't have been absolutely pessmistic...some yeah

[bullmoose88]

Well...to be fair...I made the whole...D pickup statement before we knew who was going to run (and be the R nominee)...partly my fault for a "Dewey Defeats Truman" statement...but hardly a condemnation of Fitzpatrick's chances...(also based on an assumption that the Dems would pull a torrecelli and run someone that wasn't greenwood fodder)

if you notice down the page (I think less than a day later) I went to a toss up...


then in a month or so that followed, I think I gave Fitz pretty good odds.

Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically.

[bullmoose88]

Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically.

And that's all that matters! 

Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. 

I'm still totally undecided on the senate race.

[bullmoose88]

Ah well...I voted for Mike...and will so again, unless things change drastically.

And that's all that matters! 

Now we just need you to support Santorum and everything will be fine. 

I'm still totally undecided on the senate race.

Two social conservatives. One is economically conservative, the other is not. Sounds like Santorum is right for you. 

Then again, I hold the Caseys in high esteem, am not crazy about Santorum...and theres always the LP option or write in.

[bullmoose88]

Then again, I hold the Caseys in high esteem, am not crazy about Santorum...and theres always the LP option or write in.

I like Casey, too. I'm always looking for people to vote for Santorum but I must admit that a Libertarian or other third party candidate will probably be closer to you. That actually helps Santorum in the SE so I don't mind all that much.

Though the fact that he basically dumped (Casey) the record number of PAers who voted for him for treasurer (myself included) kinda ticks me off.

[bullmoose88]

Patrick Murphy...more democratic cannonfodder in PA 8...

The Bucks County Democratic Party (indeed all PA 8 democrats) need to take a break from inserting their heads up their collective posteriors and run a candidate who can win...not some candidate they'd like to win. At least Fawkes and the county GOP have realized this notion.

The last democrat in this seat was Peter Kostemeyer...a fiscally moderate, socially liberal (well moderately liberal...remember it was the 80s)

A moderate conservative will beat a populist in PA 8 any day of the week. Unless Fitzpatrick has been secretely found to be eating small children and animals.

Let them think they have a winner, throw tons of money in the race and end up losing elsewhere.    Murphy will be better than Schrader though (not like that's hard to do...)

The more I think about it, the more I think Pat Murphy doesn't have a chance.  NARAL or PPSEPA won't put up a dime either.  We probably need another Kostmayer type to run against Fitz.  Say, I've read about his politics and mine are quite simlar.  Think I could carpetbag?  I will be 26.  <joking>

:-p

I will reiterate a previous statement...you better be born and raised in Bucks Co...to win this district

:-p

[bullmoose88]

Most of the people I know that live in Bucks were once from Philly, majority of those being the Northeast.  Also, there is an influx of New Yorkers in the county as well.  Not sure if that statement holds water, bullmoose.

Pretty Fair Statement (property values in this county are going way up...even for total crap)--in terms of Bucks County growth in the last 2 or so decades. You gotta realize that these are people with enough money to get out...(which in one respect leans them towards the GOP) but are from urban areas which shoves em the other way.

Lots of swing voters...not a bad thing.

Still people who wanted out of Philly and NY and are wary of anything that advertises being from Philly, at first glance anyhow.